 "Is Trump on a mission to make China great again?")
US President Donald Trump came to power with the ‘America First’ agenda that was supposed to make America great again, but his policies appear to be helping China.
For years, China had been competing with the United States to be the world’s leading power. After dominating the world’s manufacturing, becoming central to supply chains across industries, and securing the majority of rare earth minerals, China had been jostling for influence across the world, primarily in the developing world in Indo-Pacific and Asia.
As Trump withdraws from the world stage as part of his America First nationalist stance, China has an opening to make deeper inroads into not just these regions but also in multilateral institutions where he is reducing US engagement.
Those in Trump’s orbit have suggested that the US withdrawal from regions such as Europe and Africa and institutions including the United Nations (UN) appears to be part of a broader reorientation towards the Indo-Pacific region.
Such an approach is misdirected and is likely to empower China, says Prof Tej Pratap Singh, a scholar of China at the Department of Political Science, Banaras Hindu University.
“Power does not remain in vacuum. If the United States leaves a theatre, such as Europe or Africa, China is going to enter that theatre,” says Singh. “As President Trump withdraws from Europe by reducing commitment to European security and in Africa by cutting down humanitarian assistance by nearly shutting down USAID operations, China is set to make renewed outreach to these regions and replace the United States as the leading player.”
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Even before he assumed office, Trump had indicated that his second term would bring a fundamental realignment of US foreign policy: he promised to impose more tariffs on neighbours and allies than on China, the top US adversary; while he saved TikTok, a Chinese tool to indoctrinate Americans, he threatened to invade ally Denmark; and threatened to encourage Russia to invade European allies if they would not do his bidding.
On day-one itself, Trump implemented the new policy that reversed generations of US strategic positions. Russia and China were no longer adversaries. Instead, European allies and neighbours Mexico and Canada were adversaries.
In the post-World War II era, the United States helped cement a fundamental tenet of world order that a nation may not occupy another nation with the use of force. For decades, the United States stood against such aggressions, whether it was Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein’s invasion of Kuwait or the conflict in the Balkans. But that’s no longer the case. Now, the United States is the biggest threat to the tenet.
Trump has announced the United States will annex Denmark’s Greenland island, Panama Canal, Canada, and the Gaza Strip. He has threatened Greenland and Panama with invasions and has said Israel will hand over Gaza to the United States. There is no international law that permits it.
For decades, the United States joined India in opposing the expansionist agenda of China in Asia and Indo-Pacific where it claims the entire South China Sea, several island chains, and territories of several nations, including Aksai Chin in India’s Union Territory Ladakh and Arunachal Pradesh in the country’s northeast region.
China also claims the self-ruling island of Taiwan as a breakaway union and is committed to unify it with the mainland with the use of force if needed — President Xi Jinping has asked the Chinese military to be ready for Taiwan’s invasion and conquest by 2027.
As Trump has put the United States on a similar expansionist path, he has set a very dangerous precedent for Taiwan and has legitimised China’s case for invading places it claims as its own — from Taiwan to Indian territories.
With the path that the United States is now on, there is no difference between Trump, Xi, and Russian leader Vladimir Putin. The United States has normalised the rejection of other nations’ sovereignty and threat of invasions and that is a gift to China.
Crackdown on humanitarian assistance a self-goal
Elon Musk, the principal ally of Trump, has nearly killed USAID, the main foreign aid organisation of the United States under the Department of State.
Musk and Trump have not just killed USAID but have demonised it as an organisation that was doing nefarious operations the world over and wasting taxpayers’ dollars.
Some of the USAID programmes were indeed avoidable and counter-productive, such as its pandemic prevention programme. Millions of dollars under the programme reached China’s Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV), which is linked to the laboratory-origin theory of the Covid-19 pandemic, where researchers used it to conduct risky viral research.
However, much of USAID’s work in Africa and other places was rather mundane. The agency helped developing nations manage disease outbreaks, food shortages, and education and healthcare in deprived regions.
Humanitarian operations are the instrument of state to peddle soft power the world over and the shutting down of humanitarian operations anywhere is a self-goal by that country, says Singh.
“Developing countries need assistance. If the United States withdraws, China will reach out to these nations and they will be glad to have Chinese support. China has been making inroads in Africa for many years and the US withdrawal is set to increase that. India has been countering Chinese influence in the Global South but countering China needs joint efforts and, in the absence of US involvement, China is set to make good gains,” says Singh.
US can’t afford to withdraw from theatres, abandon allies over petty issues
A key feature of Trump’s foreign policy is the pursuit of bilateral deals and abandonment of alliances and multilateral institutions. The prime example is the way Trump has torn apart the trans-Atlantic alliance with Europe which his allies say is meant to withdraw the United States from Europe to focus on the Indo-Pacific.
However, such an approach is not workable and serves China’s purpose.
Firstly, while Trump is purportedly opting to compete on its own by ditching alliances, the adversaries are working in a bloc. That’s not a workable approach.
In recent years, particularly since the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic, China has formed an anti-US and anti-West bloc with Russia, Iran, and North Korea. This bloc has put up a united front in all theatres in recent years. They work such that one country takes the lead in a theatre and others support it.
In Europe, Russia has taken the lead and it is supported by China, Iran, and North Korea, in terms of weapons and ammunition, industrial supplies, consumer goods, and even soldiers. In West Asia, Iran has taken the lead and it is supported by Russia and China. In the Indo-Pacific, China has taken the lead and other partners support it.
As all of these theatres are linked, the United States cannot afford to withdraw from any of them. If it does, that would be a disaster and a victory to the China-led bloc. It appears that Trump is indeed serving such a victory.
Also, Trump is unsparing in tariffs. Even close non-European partners like India are unlikely to be spared by Trump’s tariffs and that’s a narrow approach, says Singh.
Great powers look at the larger picture and often ignore trade deficits for the sake of cultivating partnerships and putting up a united stand against common adversaries such as China, says Singh.
“Getting into bitter fights with allies and partners over insignificant trade deficits is a narrow approach. To build partnerships, you have to look at the bigger picture. With tariffs, there is no guarantee that jobs will come to your country. The cost of manufacturing in the United States is very high. Addressing that may bring manufacturing to the United States. Tariffs are not going to solve that problem. An intensive tariff war may also drive countries towards China,” says Singh.
The post-Cold War world has been dominated by the United States. With Trump’s inward shift and China’s global ambitions, the former may well be helping Xi Jinping fulfil his dream of making China great again and realise the so-called Middle Kingdom dream.
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