As Trump threatens Canada with tariffs & annexation, Trudeau's Liberal Party surges

As US President Donald Trump has plunged Canada into existential crises with tariffs and threats of annexation, the Liberal Party of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau appears to be emerging as an unlikely winner.

Since Trump ramped up his rhetoric, the Liberal Party has gained in polls . The gains have come amid a bipartisan resistance to Trump and a spirited defence of the nation by Trudeau, who is ironically having some of his finest moment as the prime minister in the twilight of his career.

Just six weeks back, the Conservative Party had a 26 per cent lead over Liberals in an Ipsos poll published on January 7. Then, last week, the latest Ipsos survey found that Liberals had a 2 per cent lead over Conservatives.

More from World

Canada, US in trade war 'for foreseeable future' despite potential sector breaks: Trudeau Trump says discussed fentanyl, trade with Trudeau, accuses Canadian PM of using tariffs dispute to 'stay in power'

Now, in the latest poll published this week, Leger has found that Conservatives have a 13 per cent lead over Liberals —the Liberals have halved the margin— compared to 26 per cent just six weeks back.

Federal 🇨🇦 voting intentions from Léger:

🔵CPC 43% (+5)
🔴LPC 30% (-5)
🟠NDP 13% (-1)
⚜️BQ 6% (28% in QC)
🟢GPC 4%
🟣PPC 2%

(Compared to last week's Léger poll)

→ https://t.co/wRjZoEb9Z8

[Léger, Feb.28-Mar.2, 2025, n=1,548]#canpoli

— Philippe J. Fournier (@338Canada) March 4, 2025

What’s driving Liberals’ surge?

Broadly, two things appear to be working in Liberals’ favour so far.

One, the rally around the flag in the face of all-round aggression from Trump — Trump has threatened to tank Canadian economy with tariffs and has threatened to annex the nation and make it the 51st US state.

Impact Shorts

More Shorts

‘The cries of this widow will echo’: In first public remarks, Erika Kirk warns Charlie’s killers they’ve ‘unleashed a fire’

Trump urges Nato to back sanctions on Russia, calls for 50–100% tariffs on China

Two, Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre’s ‘Canada First’ pitch to counter Trump’s threats as well as present an alternative to decadelong rule of the Liberals may be backfiring to an extent as Liberals are citing him as an imitation of Trump.

Trudeau presided over years of economic decline, fiscal problems, cost-of-living, and housing crisis, and the situation was such that his own party turned against him . He resigned earlier this year in an act of jumping the ship before his own party pushed him off the deck. The prospect of a new party leader who could steer the ship out of troubled waters appears to have excited centrist and left-leaning voters into converging around the party.

ALSO READ: As Trudeau falls to inflation and Canada looks right, a question — did he take too long to quit?

As Philippe J Fournier of elections aggregator and analytics site 338 Canada pointed out on X (post embedded above), there appear to be signs that Liberals may be losing the momentum. Over the past one week, Liberals lost 5 per cent support that Conservatives gained.

While Poilievre has dubbed his platform ‘Canada First’, he also has a long-running ‘common sense’ approach to politics that has resonated with many.

The Liberals may not be even aiming for a majority. Since 2019, the Liberals have been running a minority government with support from Jagmeet Singh’s New Democratic Party (NDP). Their best-case scenario might be to win just enough seats to deny Conservatives a majority and then somehow secure NDP’s support to go past the half-way mark. As per the latest Leger poll, the Liberal-NDP combine is tied Conservatives at 43 per cent.

Whether the Liberal-NDP combine manages majority as it has since 2019 in an at-times uneasy relationship or Poilievre brings Conservatives back to power remains to be seen.