Trudeau's Liberal Party makes comeback in Canada amid Trump's threats, finds survey

For the first time in four years, the Liberal Party of Canada is polling ahead of the Conservatives.

In the latest Ipsos survey published this week, the Liberals have a 2 per cent lead over the Conservative Party.

This is a sharp turnaround from the situation just a few weeks ago when a landslide Conservative Party victory in the upcoming victory was a foregone conclusion.

Owing to unpopularity so deep that even his own MPs and ministers turned against him , Liberal’s Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced his resignation on January 7 and said he would not contest parliamentary elections scheduled to be held later this year. The resignation was seen as act of jumping the ship before the rebellion in the party pushed him of the deck. However, the party’s fortunes have not turned in six weeks.

The turnaround in Liberals’ fortune has come at a time when Canada is facing unprecedented threats of annexation and tariffs from US President Donald Trump and observers have said that the anti-Trump sentiment is in part responsible for the turnaround.

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Liberals race ahead of Conservatives — thanks to Trump

On Jan. 7, when Trudeau announced his resignation, the Conservatives had a 26 per cent lead over Liberals — the Ipsos survey published that day reported 46 per cent voters favoured the Conservatives and 20 per cent favoured Liberals.

Six weeks later, the Libreals have not just caught but have raced ahead of Conservatives.

On Tuesday (Feb. 25), the Ipsos survey reported 38 per cent voters favouring Liberals and 36 per cent favouring Conservatives.

Ipsos with the first poll of any firm showing the Liberals in front in nearly two years.

Federal 🇨🇦 voting intentions from Ipsos:

🔴LPC 38%
🔵CPC 36%
🟠NDP 12%
⚜️BQ 6%
🟢GPC 4%
🟣PPC 3%

→ https://t.co/cdueLYwkXH

[Ipsos, February 21-24, 2025, n=1,000]#canpoli

— Philippe J. Fournier (@338Canada) February 25, 2025

The survey report noted that the surge in popularity is rooted in anti-Trump sentiment and hope that the new leader of the party would be better — the Liberals will elect the new party leader, who will also become the placeholder premier until elections are held later this year, on March 9.

Trump has made Canadians rally around the flag as he has unleashed never-seen-before territorial and economic aggression on Canada and national humiliation almost on a daily basis. Trump has said that the United States will annex Canada and make the nation the 51st US state. He and his allies, most notably White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt, have mocked Trudeau as “Governor Trudeau” and Canada as the “soon to be 51st state” on a nearly-daily basis.

ALSO READ: Trump’s talk of annexing Canada isn’t a joke—it’s about critical minerals: Trudeau

In the wake of Trump’s aggression, Trudeau has mounted a fierce resistance and generated a bipartisan consensus to oppose Trump.

In perhaps his most impassioned speech, ironically coming at the twilight of his career, Trudeau highlighted that Canadians and Americans had traded, helped each other, and fought, bled, and died in distant lands together — from fighting on the beaches of Normandy in World War II, sheltering and evacuating American diplomats during the Iran hostages crisis, to fighting in Afghanistan after the Sept. 11 attacks.

By invoking these historical acts, and recent ones such as the Canadian aid in California fires and previously in Hurricane Katrina, Trump instilled in Canadians a sense of betrayal at the hands of the United States and trigerred a wave of patriotism on the back of anti-Trump sentiment.

“We will stand strong for Canada. We will stand strong to ensure our countries continue to be the best neighbours in the world. With all that said, I also want to speak directly to Canadians in this moment. I’m sure many of you are anxious, but I want you to know we are all in this together. The Canadian government, Canadian businesses, Canadian organised labour, Canadian civil society, Canada’s premiers and tens of millions of Canadians from coast to coast to coast are aligned and united. This is Team Canada at its best,” said Trudeau.