 "As Shehbaz Sharif warns India of consequences, is Pakistan setting stage for escalation?")
Pakistan appears to be setting the stage for an escalation with India.
Shortly after Defence Minister Khawaja Asif said that Operation Sindoor amounted to “declaration of war” by India, Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif in an address to the nation said that India “will have to suffer the consequences” of last night’s military action.
Minutes after Shehbaz’s address, the Pakistani military announced that the National Security Committee chaired by Shehbaz had authorised the military to respond to the Indian military action at the time and place of their choice. The military framed the exercise as part of a self-defence exercise.
“In consonance with Article 51 of the UN Charter, Pakistan reserves the right to respond, in self-defence, at a time, place, and manner of its choosing to avenge the loss of innocent Pakistani lives and blatant violation of its sovereignty. The armed forces of Pakistan have duly been authorised to undertake corresponding actions in this regard,” said Lieutenant General Ahmed Sharif Chaudhry, the principal military spokesperson.
**Follow our complete coverage of Operation Sindoor here**The Article 51 of the UN Charter allows members a right to self defence if they are under attack.
Under Operation Sindoor, India ensured that Pakistani civilian or government sites, including military sites, were not hit. India only struck nine sites belonging to terrorist organisations Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM), and Hizbul Mujahideen in Pakistan and Pakistan Occupied Jammu and Kashmir (POJK).
Is Pakistan really looking for an escalation?
Whether Pakistan is really looking for an escalation or worse a war depends on how it strikes India — if and when it strikes.
The initial understanding was that the fact that India struck terrorist sites and not a military or civilian site would make Pakistan conduct some token strikes and seek an off-ramp. However, the rhetoric through the day suggests the nation is setting the stage for an escalation.
Impact Shorts
More ShortsThroughout the day, Pakistan raised the issue of deaths of women and children at terrorist sites struck by India — without explaining why these purported non-combatants were present at sites of internationally-designated terrorist organisations if at all they were there. PM Shehbaz, President Asif Ali Zardari, and Army chief General Asim Munir attended funerals in an attempt to muster support and rally people around the flag.
With such pretext-setting developments, the initial understanding that Pakistan would seek an off-ramp does not appear to hold true anymore.
All indications suggest that Pakistan would strike India — at the time and place of the military’s choice as per the NSC’s authorisation.
Whether Pakistan is looking for an escalation or a war would reflect in the targets it would choose in its strikes, says Yusuf Unjhawala, a scholar of geopolitics at the Takshashila Institution.
To be sure, Pakistani strikes can very well pave a way for an off-ramp as well.
Unjhawala tells Firstpost, “If Pakistan wants an escalation, it would hit Indian military targets forcefully. The nature of military targets would also matter. Some military sites mean more than the others. For example, if Pakistan would hit airbases, that could very well be an act of war. But strikes in vast open fields in military stations could make way for an off-ramp as such strikes would fulfil Pakistan’s commitment to respond and allow India to say that Pakistan was stopped from inflicting any damage.”
However, there is one complication regarding Pakistan’s retaliation, says Unjhawala.
“Unlike India, Pakistan does not have any terrorist sites to hit in India as India does not run terrorist camps. That could make it fabricate targets. Pakistan might target isolated structures or settlements in border states, such as Rajasthan or Gujarat, and claim that those settlements were training camps for Baloch insurgents or other groups sponsored by India. If such strikes turn out to be a dud, that would make way for an off-ramp. But any civilian casualties would force India to respond,” says Unjhawala.
In the Pakistani social media, there is no doubt that Pakistan would attack India. Well-connected commentators have been saying that strikes deep inside India, as deep as Maharashtra or Deccan, are on the cards. Such strikes would leave little doubt about its intentions.
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