9,000 daily Covid-19 deaths in China, says UK research firm; predicts 25K fatalities on 23 January

Beijing: China is probably witnessing 9,000 Covid-related deaths daily as the country is experiencing a new wave of Covid infections, claims UK-based health data firm Airfinity.
In stark contrast to last week’s estimates, per day deaths have almost doubled this week.
Airfinity uses modelling based on data from Chinese provinces before the recent changes to reporting cases were implemented.

China to see 25,000 covid-19 death on 23 January

Data released by the firm added that cumulative deaths in China since 1 December have most likely reached 100,000 with infections totalling 18.6 million. By 13 January, China will reach its peak reporting 3.7 million cases a day.

Meanwhile, the death toll will rise to 25,000 per day by 23 January.

Official data released by China suggests that ever since the pandemic began in 2020 the death toll has not crossed more than 5,247.

As countries are becoming more and more wary of travellers arriving from China, US has started to consider wastewater from international aircraft to detect any potential cases of Covid-19.

Epidemiologist to assess deaths differently

China’s chief epidemiologist Wu Zunyou said on Thursday that a team at the Chinese Centre for Disease Control and Prevention has planned to assess fatalities differently to gauge the seriousness of the situation.

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The team will measure the difference between the number of deaths occurring in the recent wave and the number of deaths expected if the pandemic had never happened. This “excessive mortality” rate will enable China to work out a way to assess what could have been potentially underestimated.

The Xi Jinping administration, earlier this month, narrowed down its definition of COVID-related deaths.

The head of infectious diseases at China’s Peking University, Wang Guiqiang said that people with existing medical conditions who are infected by the virus are not being counted under COVID deaths.

China has started subtracting one death from its overall death toll, without offering any explanation.

An investigation by The Associated Press showed that officials have been clouding death tallies by applying much narrower and less transparent recording standards.

China caught ‘ill-prepared’

Health experts say that the sudden U-turn from China’s zero-Covid policy following nationwide protests is what led the situation to get this worse.

In December, many hospitals in the country put out tenders for key medical equipment, ventilators and patient monitors were two or three times higher than in previous months, according to Reuters.

China to publish Covid data once a month

Earlier this month, China announced that it will not release daily Covid reports.

However, last week, the Chinese Centre for Disease Control and Management said on Tuesday that the country has decided to publish its Covid data once a month after the disease comes under Category B management.

Authorities have downgraded China’s Covid emergency by a level, making restrictions less strict from the current Category A as they say that the disease has become less virulent and will gradually turn into a common respiratory problem.

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