 "5 crises that may decide who will be Germany's next chancellor")
On February 23, Germany is heading to a crucial poll which will decide the country’s future and how it will operate in a turbulent world. The polls are being conducted at a pivotal time in the country, both in regards to its domestic situation and what’s happening abroad.
Why the world will be watching the German election closely is because there are chances that another European nation can flip towards the right. The last time, Germany had far-rights in power, the world witnessed the devastating World War 2. Hence, the political landscape and the social fabric of the country are at stake in this election.
The early polls are now suggesting that the leader of the largest opposition party, the centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU), Friedrich Merz is poised to be the country’s next Chancellor. However, the recent surge in the popularity of the far-right party, Alternative for Germany (AfD) and the global endorsement is receiving from people like Elon Musk has made many in Europe worry about which way Germany will tilt.
While Merz has said that he would be open to forming a coalition with incumbent Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democrats (SPD) or the Greens, regardless of who will win the polls, the following are the key issues that will determine who will rule the country:
1. Germans are unhappy with their living standards
According to the opinion poll conducted by Gallup, Germans are now more unhappy about their living standards than at any other point since the 2008 global financial crisis. The survey suggested that the percentage of those who said that their situation is improving dropped sharply from 42 per cent in 2023 to 27 per cent in 2024.
Germans’ poor expectations align with the gloomy forecast by the European Commission, which stated that the continent’s largest economy is projected to be the bloc’s weakest performer this year. Germans are among the least optimistic people when it comes to their economy in Europe.
Now the reason why the German economy has taken a hit is because the country has been badly exposed to the energy price shock after Russia invaded Ukraine. The price rise and the energy crisis have also slowed down its once-formidable industrial sector which has also led to several job losses. Not only this, the United States recently clinched the spot of Germany’s largest trading partner. If US President Donald Trump pushes for tariffs, it can further unsettle the economy.
Impact Shorts
More Shorts2. Overall distrust among the public
In recent years, there has been growing distrust among the Germans for the country’s government. According to the Gallup poll, faith in the German government fell to 50% in 2024, its lowest point in over a decade. The last time Germans were confident about their government was in 2020 when 65 per cent of the voters trusted former chancellor Angela Merkel’s administration.
Meanwhile, Germans’ confidence in institutions like the military and the judicial system has been steady for the last few years. According to the Euro News, the decline in the government interestingly coincided with the collapse of Scholz’s acrimonious three-party coalition, which fell apart in November after Scholz fired his Finance Minister Christian Lindner.
3. The housing crisis
Dissatisfaction with affordable housing has seen a gradual increase in the past 15 years. According to Gallup Germans are evenly split between being satisfied (47 per cent) with the availability of good, affordable housing in their local area and being dissatisfied (46 per cent). The figures have been this close for the first time since 2006.
There has been a severe housing-supply issue in Germany related to high interest rates and construction costs. Millions across the country are living in cramped conditions, with rising competition for housing in major cities pushing up prices. Not only this, the government is also behind in its ambitious efforts to build 400,000 new affordable homes a year.
4. Migration challenges and growing public concern
Recently Germany has seen a string of attacks where the main perpetrator has been an immigrant. This has brought the immigration issue to the forefront this election with several parties pushing their anti-immigration rhetoric.
Back in 2016, Germany scored 7.1 out of 9 on Gallup’s Migrant Acceptance Index, which measures receptivity toward migrants living in one’s country, becoming neighbours, and marrying into families. The higher the score the higher the acceptance. However, things have changed since then. In 2023, the score fell to 6.4, lower than in 2016.
In contrast, residents in France and Italy felt similarly about migrants in 2023 and 2016, while the U.K. saw an increase to 7.2. Among the major European economies, Germany is the only nation in which the acceptance of migrants has declined since 2016.
Migration has been a significant issue this election. Recently frontrunner Merz attracted controversy by agreeing to work with the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) to introduce measures tightening migration policies through parliament. However, the majority of the political parties in the country are also inclined towards tighter control.
5. Germany’s standing in Europe
As per the Gallup poll, the image of German leadership has taken a hit at home as well as among other Europeans, with a notable decline from a median of 60 per cent to 54 per cent in the past 12 months alone. According to the survey, countries like Slovenia, Norway, and Finland are particularly sceptical of Germany’s leadership, with approval ratings dropping by at least 10 per cent in 2023.
This has happened due to geopolitical uncertainty, given a war raging on in Europe for almost three years. With conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, political instability in France and potential shifts in US security policy in the Trump era, Germany might face challenges in holding on to its power.
Earlier, Merz said that he is willing to restore Germany’s top position in the EU, by listening to what allies think German leadership is currently lacking. “I’m seeing that Germany is in a strategic position at the centre of Europe, that so many things in Europe depend on Germany,” Merz said.
Hence, it will be interesting to see how the German election will pan out
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