 "Germany elections: What do the polls say? Who is leading the race for Bundestag?")
The centre-right Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU) are projected to win Germany’s 2025 federal election, securing 30 per cent of the vote and 220 seats in the 630-seat Bundestag, according to YouGov’s final MRP forecast released Friday (February 21).
The result marks a significant improvement from the 24 per cent the party won in the last election.
However, the most notable gains are expected for the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), which is projected to finish second with 20 per cent of the vote and 145 seats.
This would be the AfD’s best performance in post-war Germany, doubling its 10 per cent share from the previous election and marking the strongest showing by a party to the right of the CDU/CSU since World War II.
By contrast, Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s centre-left Social Democrats (SPD) are projected to suffer historic losses. YouGov’s model estimates the SPD will secure just 16 per cent of the vote and 115 seats– a sharp decline from the 26 per cent they won in 2021 and the party’s worst result in Germany’s post-war era.
The Greens, currently part of Scholz’s coalition government, are expected to receive 13 per cent of the vote and 94 seats, a drop from their record 15 per cent share in the last election.
Impact Shorts
More ShortsRegional divide: East and West Germany
The forecast also suggests a stark regional divide, with the AfD projected to dominate in nearly all constituencies in the former East Germany, while failing to secure any seats in the former West Germany. The AfD’s strongest performances are expected in Saxony, with 37 per cent of the vote, and Thuringia, with 36 per cent. Both results would surpass the party’s previous regional election successes.
Smaller parties, including The Left and the newly formed BSW, are also projected to perform better in the former East Germany.
Who can come to power in Germany?
Despite the SPD’s heavy losses, a continuation of government under a “grand coalition” between the SPD and CDU/CSU remains a possibility. According to YouGov’s estimates, this is the only two-party coalition capable of securing a majority in the Bundestag, apart from a coalition between the CDU/CSU and AfD — an option the CDU/CSU has firmly rejected.
A “black-green” coalition between the CDU/CSU and the Greens is another plausible scenario. However, YouGov’s central estimate suggests such a coalition would fall just short of a majority, winning 314 seats — two seats shy of the required 316 for a majority.
The projections underscore a major shift in Germany’s political landscape, with the rise of the far-right posing new challenges for coalition-building in Europe’s largest economy.
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