Yes, Modi is the most popular leader, Rahul trails: Survey

Narendra Modi is the most popular leader in the country. BJP president Rajnath Singh has been saying this aloud at all fora, inviting derision from the Congress and silent disapproval within his own party.

Now, a survey seals the debate. Modi indeed is the most popular leader and he beats competitors by a comfortable margin. However, the sharp rise his popularity is at variance with that of the BJP’s approval rating as the party that could provide good governance.

Modi’s popularity has swelled close to four times in the two years between 2011 and 2013, reveals a CSDS survey conducted for CNN-IBN and The Hindu. His approval rating in 2011, when the Delhi-based research organisation conducted a similar survey, was five percent; it has climbed to a remarkable 19 percent now.

Congress general secretary Rahul Gandhi comes closest to the Gujarat chief minister with 12 percent popularity rating. However, it is down from 19 percent in 2011. LK Advani, found favour with only two percent of respondents and is simply no match to his one-time protege and now challenger within the party.

However, if there’s a direct face-off between Modi and Rahul as prime ministerial  candidate, the gap between the two is marginal.

When respondents were asked who of the two they wanted to see as the next prime minister, 33 percent favoured Modi and 31 percent favoured Rahul. Among women, the responses were equally divided. Among SCs, Muslims and in the southern States, Rahul has a good lead over Modi. The latter on the other hand leads Rahul comfortably in the Hindi-speaking states and in states where the contest is mainly between the Congress and the BJP.

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh is certainly no more the popular leader he was in 2009 or even 2011. Charges of indecisiveness, weakness in decision-making and being largely indifferent to corruption taking place under his nose have stuck and eroded the respect he commanded as a silent middle class doer earlier. In the CSDS survey of 2009 he was preferred by 18 percent of the respondents. The number came down to 10 percent in 2011 and it stands at a low six percent now. Most people still view him as an honest prime minister, particularly in the Hindi heartland and metropolitan cities. However, many feel he has no real authority to take decisions.

Sonia Gandhi is doing no better with her popularity rating a notch below that of Manmohan Singh. The decline from 2011 to 2013 has been five percent.

Modi, as expected, is not a favourite of the Muslim community. However, there are indications that things could be changing, albeit slowly, his way. While 19 percent of all respondents wanted to see him as prime minister, only nine percent of Muslims wanted so. However, it is a massive jump from only two percent in 2011. Rahul remains popular among Muslims with 19 percent of respondents in the community favouring him.

Women respondents and people in southern states are less inclined to vote for Rahul Gandhi or Narendra Modi in the event of their respective parties declaring them as their prime ministerial candidates, than the overall national average.

The inclination to vote for Congress if Rahul is projected as PM by the Congress is highest among SCs, STs and Muslims. The inclination to vote for BJP if Modi is projected as PM by the BJP is highest among the youth and among those residing in Hindi-speaking states and states where there is a direct contest between the BJP and the Congress.

If it is the BJP, then it has to be Modi as prime minister, says the survey. Sixty-eight percent of traditional BJP supporters and 29 percent of non-BJP supporters say if a BJP-led government comes to power in 2014, its leader should be Modi. Only 12 percent favoured Advani and six percent Sushma Swaraj. Other BJP veterans Arun Jaitley and Rajnath Singh came pretty low as choices for the top job.

In 2004, as many as 37 percent of respondents had said that the BJP was better for good leadership to the country, compared to 31 percent of the Congress. It has declined to 30 percent in 2013.

The Congress’ remains where it was. It appears the BJP has lost more credibility than the Congress in all these years. The party should be worried, really worried.