UP2012: Will SP-Congress win?

It might be an SP–Congress government in Uttar Pradesh, says research firm CLSA in a report titled On the Road. The report is exhaustive, based on visits to Uttar Pradesh, conversations with informed and uninformed public and research from CLSA.

The following are highlights from the CLSA report, reproduced verbatim, but edited for length in some instances. Where edited for length, there is a clear mention. All italicisation and emphasis is by Firstpost.

“Hung assembly is a foregone conclusion — it was the same in 2007. Consensus is Samajwadi Party (SP) will be the single largest party and Congress will support it. On the road believes that BSP could once again emerge as the single largest party and BJP could be the third largest yet, upsetting many calculations and disappointing the markets. However, the only truth is that it is near impossible to predict the results in four-cornered contests where the division of the electorate along caste, sub caste and sub-sub caste lines are very strong. Everyone has a view and rationale and that is what makes this election so fascinating. However, aspirations across the state are high and people, like in other states, have growing expectations from their elected representatives.”

“Like in 2007, it is consensus now that there will be a hung assembly (reference to 2007 report deleted).”

“The other consensus regarding the polls: SP will emerge as the single largest party, BSP a second and Congress support will help SP form the government.

Rahul Gandhi has brought Congress back into the reckoning; but Congress still lacks any organisational structure to benefit from his charisma and appeal.

1. It is quite possible that BSP emerges as the single largest party and BJP the third.

2. The chances of a surprise and difficulty in predicting the results come from the following: high voter turnout (about 15 ppts higher than in 2007), a younger electorate, and higher percentage of voting by women.

3. There is no major wave or issue in this election unlike in 2007, when poor law and order was the major issue. There is no major anti-incumbency mood.

4. For Congress the most preferred option is likely to be President’s Rule. RLD, its alliance partner, may also nix a tie-up with SP.

What is working and what is not?

1. Everyone credits Mayawati with better law and order situation on a day-to-day basis. Every woman On the road spoke to, cutting across social and caste barriers, has voted for Mayawati.

2. Higher voter turnout is due to: Election Commission’s (ECs) efforts, migrant workers returning or not going out and BSP systematically enrolling a larger number of first time voters.

3. Unlike last time, when major part of the anti-incumbency vote went to BSP, the anti-incumbency vote this time is being split three ways (SP, Congress and BJP) based on caste, religion and candidate preferences.

4. Akhilesh Yadav’s campaign is working well and raises the hope and expectations of SP. But people still remember the poor law & order situation in 2002-2007.

5. Rahul Gandhi set the agenda for this election and is credited for bringing Congress back in the reckoning. But his charm and surname are not translating into votes. Further Mayawati and Akhilesh Yadav’s rallies are drawing much larger crowds.

6. Congress lost ground with its flip flop on Batla encounter, Sonia Gandhi’s reported reaction to the same and promised reservations for Muslims. The gainer from this is the BJP, which is gaining some of the lost ground.

The report highlights two reasons that are favourable for Mayawati.

1. “BSP voters are coming out with a vengeance,” says Sunita Aron of Hindustan Times (edited for length).

2. One journalist told us (On the Road) that 6m of the new voters registered were apparently enrolled by BSP in its drive to ensure that more and more dalit names are included in the electoral rolls.

“There is a third reason to believe that Mayawati may end up doing better than what is being expected now. She was the principal beneficiary of the anti-incumbency votes polled in 2007 since there was no other major party in the fray in any meaningful manner. BJP and Congress had limited chances then. But this time around the anti-incumbency vote, to the extent anti-incumbency is there, will get split between different parties. What does it mean in a state where 149 seats were won in 2007 by a margin of less than 5,000 votes and 51 with less than 2,000 votes? Small vote swings can make big differences in the number of seats won.”

51 seats were won with less than 2,000 votes.

That one statement underlines how difficult it is to predict the outcome of the UP elections, with the added element of a rising Congress led by Rahul Gandhi.

If there’s the one learning from the CLSA report, it’s that we will know nothing till the results are announced.