UP Election 2017: Is Shivpal's new party a ploy to swing public perception against SP chief Akhilesh?

Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav and Congress vice-president Rahul Gandhi may have been looking for virtues in their new-found friendship and political alliance, but it now looks like the move might have given a fresh lease of life and a new rallying point to Mulayam Singh Yadav and brother Shivpal Singh Yadav. The union seems to have sparked a wave of support for the patriarch among the party leaders and workers who were denied tickets in the 105 constituencies that Samajwadi Party (SP) had yielded to Congress as part of their alliance.

Akhilesh might have established a strong standing for himself after he won the sign, seal and symbol of SP and snatched the party’s presidency from his father Mulayam, but worrying signals are emerging for him on the horizon. He may have trounced his family elders in a battle of wits and muscle power – to attain absolute control of the party – but in the last 24 hours, Mulayam and uncle Shivpal have indicated to Akhilesh that he should not count them as out of the race just yet.

After filing his nomination as a SP candidate, Shivpal launched a blistering attack on Akhilesh, asserting that he could form a new party following the announcement of the Assembly election results on 11 March.

The situation is unheard of in Indian politics, as a party candidate has never publicly lambasted his own party’s national president.

His underlying message was loud and clear: That he, along with Mulayam, was certain that the SP-Congress combine would not win the elections and that Akhilesh would not be the chief minister again. He would look to engage Akhilesh in round two, when the latter is vanquished.

Parties don’t break during victory celebrations; internal dissension leads to revolt when the party is down and out, after losing an election. One will have to wait and see whether Shivpal’s threat is credible or if there is any substance to his assessment of the poll scenario (of SP losing elections) and the subsequent split in the party.

Some offices of the prospective faction are already coming up in western Uttar Pradesh, bearing the “Mulayam ke log” name. This indicates that the core supporters of Mulayam within SP are trying to regroup, to fight Akhilesh at a later date.

Mulayam and Shivpal have been openly critical of Akhilesh’s decision to align with Congress, and of giving away 105 tickets as part of the alliance.

Shivpal, after filing his nomination, said: “Six months ago, what was the condition of the Congress? It would have won four seats. So who got the advantage?… Congress. Our people lost tickets. We have defeated Congress when there were no roads and vehicles. Now there are roads and vehicles with our workers."

He added: “Meharbani hui, kripa hui ki ticket mil gaya (it was their kindness that I got a ticket).” But asserted that in case he had not received a ticket, he was prepared to “contest independently” and added that many of his supporters wanted him to do exactly that.

“After the result on 11 March, we will form a new party. You formed an alliance with Congress and cut the tickets of our people. Tickets are cut intentionally in an attempt to weaken the party. I know many of the workers are disappointed. I wouldn’t let any Samajwadi Party worker suffer,” he said.

Shivpal dwelt at length on how Mulayam had been humiliated and marginalised by his own son. He stressed that the only thing they wanted was to keep Mulayam’s honour – by keeping him on as the national president of the party – even if he didn’t have a say in ticket distribution. He then focused on how Mulayam had fought over the decades to build the party, and how his party workers were even murdered, sent to jail in the process.

In doing so, Shivpal was looking to invoke empathy for Mulayam and dislike for Akhilesh – a son who humiliated his father, who had built the party and handed him the chief ministerial post on a platter. He gave enough indications that a number of their close supporters would be contesting the upcoming Assembly elections as independent candidates.

Incidentally, Shivpal was just elaborating on what Mulayam had said about the SP-Congress alliance just a day before. Speaking to CNN-News18, Mulayam said: “Alliance with the Congress party will jeopardise Samajwadi Party’s political future. Akhilesh should consider calling off the alliance.”

“I fought a lifelong battle to establish the Samajwadi Party against the Congress… What will our workers do on those 105 seats? They have all worked hard, what will happen to them now. This is not right, I will not let the party be destroyed like this,” Mulayam said.

Shivpal is apparently trying to provoke Akhilesh, forcing him to take action against him in order to sway public perception against the chief minister. It is clear that Akhilesh is on his own to fend off this latest attack, as Rahul wouldn’t be there to help him out this time.