Punjab: SAD-BJP set to buck anti-incumbency mood

Punjab may spring a surprise on the Congress this time. The ruling Shiromani Akali Dal-Bharatiya Janata Party (SAD-BJP) alliance is set to buck the anti-incumbency mood and get a repeat mandate. If the final results stay the way the post-poll survey conducted by the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) suggests, then the electorate could be making history. The state has never voted any ruling party back to power.

According to the CSDS survey, the SAD-BJP combine is likely to bag between 51 and 63 seats and the Congress between 48 and 60. The total number of seats in the assembly is 117. However, the vote share of the ruling alliance has dipped by four per cent. In 2007, the party had secured 45 percent of votes while the Congress, 41 percent. The Congress is one percentage point down.

The People’s Party of Punjab (PPP), a new party led by former SAD leader Manpreet Singh, seems to have eaten into the vote share of both the major parties. It is likely to bag five percent of votes. The party was expected to cause major damage to the ruling combine. However, the survey finds that its impact is limited to Jat Sikhs only. The BSP, another smaller contender here, retains its four percent vote share.

The survey was conducted across 45 assembly seats in the first week of February and involved 3,250 respondents.

According to the findings of the survey, there’s a reversal in voting pattern this time. Urban Punjab is likely to shift from the BJP to the Congress. Rural Malwa, which had voted for the Congress in 2007, is expected to back SAD this time. Rural Majha, a Congress stronghold which had shifted to SAD last time, is likely to return to the Congress. In Rural Doaba, which traditionally backs the SAD, the status quo remains.

An interesting finding in the survey is the loss of popularity of the SAD-BJP among the urban voters and the upper caste Hindus. The Congress has gained marginally in both the sections. However, the ruling combine fares well among Hindu OBCs, Dalit Sikhs and Hindu Dalits. Women voters would play a significant role since they outnumbered men in at least 58 assembly seats. This section of voters is known to be partial to the SAD-BJP.

Nearly two-thirds of Dera Sacha Sauda followers voted for the Congress party while Radha Soami Beas Dera followers voted equally for the the Akalis and the Congress.

Chief Minister Parkash Singh Badal still remains the most preferred choice for chief minister. Congress’ Amarinder Singh comes close second. However, his popularity is down by five percent this time. Thirty-eight percent of the respondents favored him to lead the state and he still remains the most popular leader among women and farmers. Respondents do not find his son Sukhbir Singh fit for the top job. While Amarinder is perceived more corrupt, Parkash is perceived more prone to nepotism.

In a survey conducted by CNN-IBN, 38 percent people want Parkash Singh Badal as the Punjab CM followed by Amarinder Singh with 33 percent. Watch the video below: