India Today - Axis poll predicts Congress's victory
India Today Axis My India poll projected its figures of Manipur and this agency seems to be at variance with C-Voter, predicting that Congress will between 30-36 seats in the 60-seat Assembly, edging past BJP's tally of 16-22 seats. If this is true, this could be the silver lining Congress was hoping for.
Even as exit polls come out, violence reigns in the state.
A handgranade went off at Singjamei under Singjamei PS in Imphal west this evening at about 4.30 pm. No casualty has been reported till date. The bomb exploded at the road divider in front of the Kumar Variety store at Singjamei Bazar along the Indo-Burma road, police said. The blast took place just a day after an IED exploded in Kasturi bridge in Imphal city on Wednesday evening injuring nine persons.
Manipur: IED Blast took place near Singjamei Super Market in Imphal at around 4.20pm; no injuries reported pic.twitter.com/9bWKesT8Hr— ANI (@ANI_news) March 9, 2017
Tracking BJP's rise to power in North-East
The rise of BJP, as projected by exit polls, in this easternmost state is in line with the recent ascendancy it is enjoying in north-eastern states. As in Assam where Congress poll strategist Himanta Biswa Sarma walked over to BJP on the eve of the polls and helped script Congress downfall, in Manipur too six rebel Congress MLAs quit the party and were given tickets by the BJP. If the exit poll projections hold (C-Voter predictions have also been buttressed by India Today My Axis figures), then it would also seem that chief minister O Ibobi Singh's attempt to polarize the electorate between hills and plains didn't work.
BJP likely to seek NPF's help to form a government in state
If C-Voter's projection about BJP's ascendancy proves to be correct, the party may still fall short of the magic figure of 31 (CVoter predicts a figure between 25-31 with a +/-3 error margin). In that case, the saffron unit may need the support of other parties. This is where Naga People's Front may come into play. Though BJP chose to go it alone in the polls and contest in all 60 seats, the party may just seek NPF help in forming a government, For Congress, this means one more step towards a Congress-mukt Bharat with BJP rapidly replacing it as the dominant national outfit.
BJP's positive swing comes at expense of other political parties in state
C-Voter predictions for Manipur, based on a sample size of 1330, predicts a 36 per cent positive swing in vote share compared to 2012 figures. According to the agency, while BJP may witness 33.6 per cent swing in its favour, Congress votes will witness a 12.9 per cent erosion. BJP's positive swing is likely to come at the expense of other politics parties whose combined vote share will go down by 20.6 per cent, according to C-Voter.
Meanwhile you can check out Exit-poll results for Punjab election here.
Is Okram Ibobi Singh on his way out?
According to C-voter, BJP might clinch Manipur from Congress. The poll predicts that BJP might win 25-31 seats out of the total 60 seats. The poll predicts that Congress might only win 17-23 seats and current chief minister Okram Ibobi Singh could be on his way out from the post. Poll pundits believe that prime minister Narendra Modi's campaigning in the state has made in-roads for the party.
There was also heavy anti-incumbency in the state, whereas BJP was projecting closeness to the Nagas.
BJP likely to sweep Manipur
According to C-Voter exit poll, BJP may clinch Manipur and expand its presence in North-East.
MANIPUR: BJP May Clinch Manipur, Expand Presence In North East— BTVI Live (@BTVI) March 9, 2017
BJP May Win 28 Seats, Cong Down By Over Half To 20 Seats pic.twitter.com/xPCnm7nEZi
Who will win this round of election?
While we wait for the exit polls to begin,lets take a look at how the two main competing parties in the state performed in the previous elections. As this infographic shows, the Congress has led in all previous Assembly elections however BJP gave it a tough fight in the General elections. Will the BJP win this round? or will the Congress keep fighting to keep its legacy alive in the state?
Polling in the second and final phase of the Manipur election ended at 3 pm on 8 March. Voter turnout was estimated at 86 percent. In the first phase on 4 March, Manipur witnessed a record turnout of 85.5 percent.
In Manipur, the only opinion poll has been commissioned by Huffington Post. The HuffPost-CVoter opinion poll estimates bad news for the Congress, predicting that the party will win fewer seats than the BJP.
According to the poll, the BJP's vote share in the state will see a huge increase—from 2.1 percent in 2012 to 32.1 percent in this election. Meanwhile, the Congress' vote share is estimated to fall from 42.4 percent in 2012 to 31.3 percent.
The BJP is predicted to win 23 seats in the 60-member Assembly, the Congress is estimated to win 19 seats and the independent and smaller parties are estimated to net 19 seats clearly indicating a hung House.
Twenty seats have been reserved for SC/ST aspirants. The Manipur Assembly term ends on 18 March.
Major parties who contested
Congress: Manipur has been a Congress stronghold for over a decade, thanks to the leadership of Chief Minister Okram Ibobi Singh, a savvy political operator. The previous Assembly election, held in 2012, resulted in a landslide victory for the Congress, giving them 42 seats and allowing Okram Ibobi Singh to be re-elected as chief minister for an unprecedented third consecutive term.
Bharatiya Janata Party: The BJP, buoyed undoubtedly by its success in last year's Assam elections, has been upbeat about its chances in Manipur. It has not officially declared a face for the state. The BJP has fielded former ministers N Biren Singh, Yumkham Erabot Singh and Francis Ngajokpa, and MLAs Dr Kh Loken, Z Kikhonbou Newmai and Nemcha Kipgen in the Assembly elections.
People's Resurgence and Justice Alliance (PRJA): All eyes are also Irom Sharmila's PRJA, who, in their mission statement, aspired to build a "self-reliant economy for Manipur". The party, in its initial weeks, tried to cast itself in the mould of the Aam Aadmi Party. Just like Arvind Kejriwal had done with AAP five years ago, the PRJA also took up the cause of corruption.
To further cement its place as a whistleblower of Indian politics, the PRJA adopted the "whistle" symbol as well. In fact, its aspirations caught the eye of Kejriwal himself, and the Delhi chief minister even made a donation to Sharmila's party, and urged others to donate generously.
The party, with little money or organisation, has fielded five candidates, including two women. Sharmila contested against Chief Minister Singh in Thoubal, Erendro Leichombam in Thangmeibandh, rights activist Najima Bibi in Wabagai constituency in Thoubal district, Bowang Kho, a former student leader, in Karong constituency of the Naga-dominated district of Senapati, and Md Ilyash, a municipal councillor, in Lilong constituency in Thoubal district.
Trinamool Congress: The TMC is contesting in 24 seats. In the 2012 Assembly polls, the TMC had bagged seven seats, but later all of its MLAs switched sides joining either the Congress or the BJP.
Naga People's Front: The Naga People’s Front is a regional party which is in power in Nagaland with support from the BJP and is seen as a political force competing with Meitei and Kuki identity politics.
Okram Ibobi Singh: Manipur Chief Minister Okram Ibobi Singh's reign has been marked by insurgency and turmoil. Running for his fourth consecutive term, Singh has been ruling the state since 2002, a feat made especially impressive considering that Manipur chief ministers usually do not serve out their full terms.
His first foray into politics took place in 1984 as an independent candidate from the Khangabok Assembly constituency after which he joined the Congress. In 1990, he won re-election from Khangabok on a Congress ticket and took up a position as the minister in-charge of municipal administration, housing and urban development in the RK Dorendo government. He has been a Congress stalwart ever since. He is running from Thoubal constituency.
Okram Surajkumar: Okram Surajkumar, who will be making his debut into politics, has an economics degree from London's Kingston University, is a polo player and a state-level badminton champion.
The 29-year-old has claimed he had no political ambitions until recently, and said he felt compelled to run for office after witnessing the difficulties faced by the underprivileged in his district.
Surajkumar, the youngest candidate in the state's history to fight Assembly elections, has stated that he would focus on digitisation for the northeast state if elected.
Irom Sharmila: The Iron Lady of Manipur shocked many political observers by giving up her 16-year fast against the controversial Armed Forces Special Powers Act (Afspa), and decided to enter politics. She took on chief minister in his own den — Thoubal constituency — only time will tell if this is a masterstroke or a blunder. Sharmila's popularity in the state could have won her a lot of support, however, her decision to end her hunger strike in 2016 turned a lot of people against her. She is also not viewed as a serious career politician by the people of Manipur.
Erendro Leichombam: Trained in Economics at the Soka University of America and in Mathematics at the University of California, Irvine, this 33-year-old Manipuri man refused to live the life of an NRI. He decided to take the plunge into politics after being inspired by Irom Sharmila's fight against Afspa and joined PRJA. The former World Bank Fellow has also served in the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP).
TN Haokip: TN Haokip was appointed as Manipur Congress unit president by Sonia Gandhi in 2016. He is a sitting MLA from Saikot and the Congress is relying on him to carry the constituency.
Thoubal: Thoubal is the home of Manipur Chief Minister Okram Ibobi Singh. Two other candidates will attempt to capture it from him: Irom Sharmila and BJP nominee Th Jadumani. However, Singh has an impressive track record, emerging victorious in Thoubal in 2012 and 2007.
Armed Forces Special Powers Act (Afspa): The controversial Afspa has been in force in Manipur since the 1950s. The Ibobi Singh government, responding to pressure from civil rights groups, in August 2004, removed Afspa from Imphal's municipal area. However, the controversial law still remains firmly entrenched in Manipur. But it was only recently that Afspa appeared as an election issue after Sharmila decided to contest the Assembly election. Singh's inability to get the act repealed may determine the electoral outcome.
He was quoted by The Times of India report as saying, "We've removed Afspa from Imphal municipal area covering seven Assembly constituencies in 2004. It was not easy. Everyone at the Centre was opposed to it. I managed to convince a very reluctant (then) prime minister Manmohan Singh that state police could handle the law and order of Imphal city. But it was not conducive to remove Afspa from the entire state."
Economic blockade: Manipur has been experiencing severe hardship in supply of essential items since 1 November, 2016 after United Naga Council (UNC) imposed an indefinite economic blockade on the two national highways that serve as lifeline for the state.
The blockade was imposed following the state government's announcement of formation of seven new districts, four of which have been formally inaugurated. The UNC claims that the creation of new districts in the Naga dominated hill areas will encroach upon and divide the traditional land holdings of Naga tribes.
The blockade, however, has not only crippled trade and normal life in the state, it also stoked up the existing divide between the valley and the hill populace.
The chief minister has laid the blame for the blockade on the Centre, saying the group the Modi government is holding talks with is holding Manipur to ransom. The blockade was thought to be a set back for the BJP, as it was gaining ground in Manipur and it is being identified with as close to the Naga groups.
Naga Peace Accord: On 3 August, 2015, Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced a peace deal with Nagaland insurgents which rests on a breakthrough formula not involving redrawing of the state’s borders.
This was touted as the Naga Peace Accord, the contents of which were not revealed to the media. The deal allegedly involves creating a mechanism which would create institutions like allowing autonomy to Naga tribes living in Manipur.
Congress leaders like Rahul Gandhi and Ibobi criticised the deal made between the Government of India and the NSCN (IM), which is the largest Naga rebel group, and asked the government to reveal the contents of that draft.
A report by The Indian Express suggested that a degree of autonomy in Naga homelands would be part of the Naga Peace Accord that hopes to please all factions in the state. This includes a majority of the Meitei people, who are also sensitive about territorial integrity.
The BJP hopes to use the Naga Peace Accord as a means to prevail peace in the state and garner votes this election season.
Updated Date: Mar 10, 2017 15:44 PM
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