Goa Assembly Election 2022: How BJP could sail through in a true multiparty contest

In the just-concluded 2022 Assembly elections, Goa was the one state which was energetically contested by various political parties. At the same time, it received overwhelming response and coverage from the national media.

Political experiments, last-minute defections, multiparty contests, unforeseen alliances and a small electorate were just some reasons which caught the imagination of political observers nationally. The same factors are also more or less directly or indirectly responsible for the verdict that we see in front of us now.

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has just fallen one short of the majority mark of 21, while the Indian National Congress has come down to 12 seats. The seasoned kingmaker of Goan politics, Sudin Dhavlikar-led MGP, has been reduced to two seats. The Trinamool Congress, which brought the glitz to the Goan politics, failed to open an account, despite the aid of I-PAC or being in an alliance with the MGP.

The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) won from two constituencies and the new entrant to Goan politics — Revolutionary Goans Party — has managed to win one seat. The three independently elected candidates — Antonio Vas, Dr Chandrakant Shetye and Aleixo Reginaldo — are certain to gain cabinet berths as their support becomes extremely crucial in government formation.

Whose formula worked?

The BJP has heavily relied upon the defected yet prominent faces for the smooth sailing of its government in the last five years. It continued the same formula during ticket distribution, by basing itself on factors such as winnability and hold of a particular candidate in his/her constituency.

In all likelihood, the BJP was supposed to win in an ideologically devoid and candidate-driven state politics. However, this result should not be seen in isolation as experiments of other parties have played into getting the magic number to the BJP, which it had only achieved at the height of Manohar Parrikar-led 2012 victory.

Goa Congress’ prolonged inactivity in the last five years allowed other parties such as the AAP and TMC to sense a huge opportunity in expanding itself to another state. Both the parties have entered Goa at different points of time with their robust political campaign management.

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They along with Revolutionary Goans haven’t been able to completely take over Congress’ space but they have dented its essential vote-share, which had made Congress the single largest party the last time. Congress’s vote-share was reduced from 28.2 per cent in 2017 to 23.5 per cent in this election. The BJP managed almost similar vote-share with 32.5 per cent in 2017 and 33.3 per cent for this election.

One of the classic cases of how vote-splitting helped the BJP was in the Navelim constituency where the BJP won for the first time. This closely contested seat had prominent faces from AAP, TMC and Congress and in the end, BJP with its vote intact managed to cross the finishing line with a mere 24 per cent vote-share.

The Congress did try to have an image makeover by denying entry to its defected MLAs and also giving substantial new faces. It even tried to rope in Michael Lobo, who has got the party a strategic edge in BJP-dominated North Goa. But none of those decisions helped them reach close to a majority mark. There are also questions on its future with fiercer competition in the opposition camp. All these worries could have been prevented if the central leadership had acted upon in advance to resolve these crises and not waited for last-minute hyperactivity. As Goa still had a sizeable Congress presence despite being out of power for about a decade.

One of the oldest regional parties in Indian politics from Goa, the Maharashtrawadi Gomantak Party, also couldn’t deliver what it had hoped for. Despite obtaining fewer seats, it always had a strategic advantage in hung Assembly situations and it claimed to be a kingmaker or a king of Goan politics this time around. It received a lot of drubbing for allying with the Trinamool Congress and many of the candidates lost by a very thin margin.

The Revolutionary Goans Party was another local force that made a lot of promises to protect and preserve the interest of the native Goans with highly radical regional ideas. It contested from 38 out of 40 seats, but could only manage to send its lone candidate Viresh Borkar to the Assembly.

The Aam Aadmi Party with its overwhelming victory in Punjab will also ensure that it is here to stay in Goa which will help them increase its national footprints and ambitions.

The road ahead/strong>

The BJP has got comfortable numbers which will make it easy for government formation. However, it will now go through a problem that once plagued Goa Congress — the problem of plenty. It has got many established political aspirants for the ministerial posts and more so for the top job as a chief minister. It would also have to accommodate others who support them.

One of the major election promises made by the BJP was mining resumption which was once a major contributor to the state economy. It is interesting to see how long it will take them to resolve it, especially when the state is reeling under high debt. It has also assured to provide free three LPG cylinders to all households and not increase state duties on fuel prices. Fast-paced infrastructural development was a visible feature of the BJP government but a lot of questions were raised on its sustainability and its need for the local populace.

The party has been successful in defeating a very high anti-incumbency, but going forward it will need to relook at ideas such as human development, local identity, environment, education and healthcare.

The author is a research scholar at the Department of Political Science, Goa University. Views expressed are personal.

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