Congress faces strong anti-incumbency but alliances will hold key: Election Tracker

The Congress may fancy its chances in the next general elections, but if the pulse of the electorate is to be believed, it stands little chance of coming back to power given its poor image across sections of society.

According to the CNN-IBN and Hindu survey, it’s the BJP which stands to gain the most from the strong anti-incumbency sentiment among the voters gaining 8 percent of the vote share if elections were held today.

But the biggest losers in 2013 are not the Congress, but its allies in the UPA like NCP, IUML, KEC (M), RLD and JMM who according to the survey stand to lose the most vote share.

The current political scenario, in which many of the past allies of the Congress and BJP are no longer with the UPA and NDA, also mean that a large chunk of the voters would prefer a regional party that could consequently join either of the two alliances or even a possible third Front.

While the UPA and NDA are projected as getting only around 29 percent of the vote share each, 42 percent is expected to be garnered by regional parties that aren’t allied with either party.

Congress vote share is seen declining across all categories of voters, including groups it had previously enjoyed support among like the youth, Muslims and Hindu upper castes. The BJP on the other hand seems to have regained support among Hindu groups and other groups as well.

Anti-incumbency against the Congress was also found to be strong across the country with the highest negative sentiment in Jharkhand, where Congress-ally JMM is currently in power. Most people are only somewhat satisfied with the work their MPs do across the country but even there BJP MPs had a higher rating than their Congress counterparts.

But despite the strong anti-incumbency, the Congress is still viewed as being better at providing good leaders, maintaining religious harmony and running a coalition but just marginally. On the other hand BJP enjoys the edge when it comes to perception about battling corruption, handling the economy and countering terrorism. It’s not clear how a Third Front is perceived.

In most of India, the key election issue remains economic development and rising inflation, both topics that the BJP has been harping about. And even secularism and communalism aren’t crucial issues for a majority. However, a majority (around 40 percent across India) still aren’t driven by any single issue to vote in favour of either of the two big parties, which is why Congress still believes it has a shot.

The Congress is unlikely to be blind to the strong anti-incumbency against it and the UPA. But whether it can do enough to turn the tide in less than a year, or if it can find the right allies to hold on to power is something we will have to wait till 2014 to find out.