Bihar: Why by-polls will be a big test for the Mandal warriors

Patna: Driven to existential crisis after the emergence of the BJP as a formidable political challenger, the Lalu Prasad-led RJD and the Nitish Kumar-controlled JD(U) have decided to bury two decades of acrimony to forge a new alliance in Bihar. The combined power of the two biggest players of Mandal politics will be put to test in the upcoming by-election to 10 assembly seats in the state. This is a crucial test since the BJP has already made clear its intention to target and win a minimum of 175 of the 243 seats in the assembly elections due next year.

While both parties have hinted that they would continue their alliance till the assembly polls, the bypolls would make it clear whether it packs enough punch as an electoral proposition. An impressive performance in the bypolls will be a booster dose for their sagging morale. The election to the seats has been necessitated by the election of legislators to Parliament. The BJP had won six of the 10 seats in the last assembly election, but it had done so with the JD(U) as alliance partner.

Lalu and Nitish are hopeful that their coming together would check a division in the Muslim votes. In the general elections few months earlier the votes of the community—it accounts for 17 percent of the total voter in the state—got divided between both parties and the BJP reaped the advantage. Similar was the case with the backward castes. The reasoning in both the sides is that together they enjoy the support of 45 percent of the vote share – RJD 30 percent and the JD(U) 15 percent. It would be easy for them to fight the BJP if they don’t allow the division of votes.

“Their political survival remains the biggest issue now. They know they will be relegated to history if they continue opposing each other. However, the masses have become smarter than the politicians. An alliance is no guarantee that they will get the votes they are targeting,” commented S Narayan, a political observer.

The BJP is not impressed with the alliance too. “People are no fools. Nitish Kumar was born out of his opposition to Lalu Prasad’s Jungle Raj. He came to power fighting against RJD’s misrule but now suddenly he has joined hands with the same party. This is a purely unethical and unholy alliance which will ultimately boomerang,” said senior BJP leader Nand Kishore Yadav.

Another senior BJP leader and former deputy chief minister Sushil Modi holds similar views. “In politics two plus two don’t always make four. The RJD and the JD(U) can’t hope to gain since their basic votes are totally different. They have been voting against each other for the past 20 years,” he said.

Both Nitish and Lalu are keen on recreating the Mandal magic which propelled them to political prominence in the early 1990s. There are talks of the parties trying to revive caste and quota politics in some way. The BJP, however, feels the Mandal issue is outdated and it has lost its electoral relevance. Its leaders say the BJP has managed to water down its upper caste image and is as acceptable to other social groups as the RJD and JD(U).

“Narendra Modi is leader at the Centre whereas Sushil Kumar Modi is a leader in Bihar. Also, the leader of opposition is the state assembly is Nand Kishore Yadav. All these leaders come from the backward class. So where are the chances for the opposition to gain?” asked a senior BJP leader.

Yes, the electoral arithmetic of the Mandal warriors can go horribly wrong. They have milked the caste equations for far too long and the returns have been shrinking every election. But do they have any option left? Not really. They realise they cannot take on the BJP alone; they have to sink or swim together.