Why Venezuela? The strategic logic behind Trump’s boldest gamble

US President Donald Trump, in a message on his ‘Truth Social’ media platform, posted the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in ‘Operation Absolute Resolve,’ stating, “The United States of America has successfully carried out a large-scale strike against Venezuela and its leader, President Nicolás Maduro, who has been, along with his wife, captured and flown out of the country.” This followed weeks of pressure on Venezuela through the deployment of military power off its coast.

The Venezuelan armed forces are about 125,000 strong, including conscripts, possessing a mix of Russian and Chinese equipment, and remain amongst the most powerful in Latin America. There are reports of poor serviceability of equipment due to budgetary constraints. In contrast, the US had deployed just 15,000 troops against it.

The fact that Caracas, the Venezuelan capital, is located barely 15 km from the coast was an added advantage to the US, as it could move troops directly from its aircraft carrier group to the target without being easily detected or challenged. The flight time was also shorter, and helicopters could fly low. Operation Absolute Resolve involved air power providing protection to special forces, which landed in Maduro’s palace compound using helicopters to capture Maduro and his wife and return. The entire operation lasted just over two hours.

Capturing a serving president from his secure and heavily guarded residence, protected by trusted bodyguards, in a nation with adequate military power, with a small specialised force, cannot be done without a major firefight and heavy casualties unless there was an internal sell-out or an agreement with Maduro. Surprisingly, there was no major reaction from Venezuela’s military, despite being aware that the US was likely to launch an assault, adding to doubts of complicity by the Venezuelan armed forces. Under normal conditions, the armed forces would have been on high alert.

While an agreement between Trump and Maduro is highly unlikely, given the ongoing war of words between them, as well as signs of defiance despite a recent tele-conversation, a sell-out by the military and his bodyguards appears more plausible, especially since Maduro would now face justice in US courts. It is likely that senior members of the army and some of Maduro’s bodyguards would have been bought by the CIA.

The US had spent months applying pressure on the country by destroying boats, capturing ghost ships transporting oil, attacking docks, and planning and establishing contacts with senior Venezuelan officials for just such an assault. Venezuelan migrants in the US and Colombia, with relatives in the country in important positions, would have been the possible go-betweens in the entire episode. The US Chief of Joint Staff had mentioned that the US had spent months gathering information and planning and rehearsing the strike.

Unless there was surety of success, Trump would never have ventured into a land-based operation with troops. A failure would have dented his image and made him a global laughing stock. Surety of success would have flowed from the CIA after obtaining guarantees from those in authority in Venezuela.

Meanwhile, the Venezuelan government has demanded proof of life of the president and, according to the constitution, the Vice President, Delcy Rodríguez, has been sworn in as interim president. She said, soon after assuming power, “We will never again be a colony of any empire,” contradicting Trump’s announcement that “She’s essentially willing to do what we think is necessary”, implying a puppet regime.

The Venezuelan interim government, despite a display of defiance, would be compelled to negotiate with the US, as oil—its main revenue—remains blocked from exports. This is to prevent any repeat action in the near future, as US deployment off the coast remains a threat and Trump continues threatening “boots on the ground”. Whether Maduro’s removal would result in anti-Maduro groups vying for control remains to be seen.

Trump’s threat to place “boots on the ground” may be far-fetched, as there are pro-Maduro forces capable of making it difficult to manage the ground situation. The nation still has Maduro supporters. However, US oil companies, which had been removed by Maduro’s predecessor Hugo Chávez, would now be back in business. The reality of what happened and who sided with the US would emerge with time.

It is known that Venezuela is a major transit point for drug trafficking, but that alone is no reason for Maduro’s removal. After all, Trump pardoned Juan Orlando Hernández, the former president of Honduras, who was sentenced last year to 45 years in prison in the US for trafficking 400 tonnes of cocaine into the US. If drugs were solely the intent, then the target should have been Colombia, where they are produced, or Mexico, which remains a major route for China-manufactured fentanyl and other drugs. Currently, Trump has only threatened Colombia.

Nor is the other oft-quoted reason that Maduro’s policies forced over eight million Venezuelans to flee the country and settle in other parts of the Americas, including the US. Currently, Colombia hosts 2.5 million, while the US hosts 1.1 million. Migration is ongoing from many parts of the world—why single Venezuela out?

Russia and China condemned the US action. Alongside Iran, Cuba and Turkey, they are key allies of Venezuela. They are bound to continue criticising the US in the UNSC when the debate takes place. Nothing more would be done. It appears that Venezuela is no longer as important for them as it once was, despite selling oil to China. Further, there is little that they can do. The Chinese Special Representative for Latin America met Maduro hours before the attack. He was still in Caracas when Maduro was captured.

It is likely that Russian inaction was because it is aware that Trump will ensure the end of the Ukrainian conflict on Russia’s terms, sacrificing Zelenskyy. Trump cannot risk engaging the US in multiple directions. On oil to China, Trump mentioned that oil flows to China would increase, which would benefit it. Iran and Cuba are now preparing to be the next to face US wrath, both of which remain under US threats. The Russian Air Force has been flying military equipment to Tehran in recent days. Turkey remains largely silent.

Venezuela currently owes China approximately $18-20 billion in loans provided in lieu of future oil supplies. Many Chinese refineries are configured specifically for Venezuelan crude, which is heavy and hence avoided by the West. China will hope that oil deliveries resume soon and therefore would cooperate with the US. The operation is also a message that Washington can control China’s supply chains to the Americas.

The US, in its latest National Security Strategy, mentioned its intent to dominate the Americas based on the old Monroe Doctrine, now termed by Trump as the ‘Donroe Doctrine’. The NSS recommends intervention in Latin America to fight crime and end migration. This is the first action. Cuba and Colombia are now being warned to change their policies or face similar actions. This is akin to Russia claiming domination over Ukraine and China claiming Taiwan.

Oil is definitely a major reason for Trump to undertake this venture. Venezuela has the largest global reserves of oil in quantity, not quality. By dominating Venezuelan oil production, the US would now be a major player in the oil market and play a role in determining oil prices. As prices drop, the Russian economy would be impacted.

Trump has repeatedly harped on oil being a major reason for his interference in Venezuela. He has boasted that US companies would now reclaim their oil fields. Currently, Venezuelan production is low. Enhancing production would require immense investment, as most oil extraction facilities are in disuse or state of disrepair. This will take time. US companies that won arbitration cases against their ouster by Hugo Chávez would demand payment, impacting investment and returns to Venezuela. Indian oil companies, too, are owed money, which they would also claim.

Maduro is out of the picture. The US has displayed that it cares little for global norms and rules, solely because of its power. It will attack nations that are smaller and weaker, as long as they possess resources that benefit the US and are non-nuclear. It has sent the message that the Americas are its backyard and that it will dominate the region.

It has also displayed that leaders of smaller and poorer nations can be bought. While other powers will criticise, they can do little. However, by its action in Venezuela, the US is setting a wrong example for nations like Russia or China, which may repeat the same when they are confident.

Nothing will change in Venezuela. Oil companies would invest slowly, make their profits, and claim their arbitration awards. Venezuelans would be left in poverty, as at present. Finally, it is hoped that Venezuela remains stable and controlled by the interim government and does not drift the way Iraq and Libya drifted post-US intervention. The more the US interferes, the more likely it would drift into chaos. If it does, it would be a bigger threat to the US than it is today, as it lies in its backyard.

(The author is a former Indian Army officer, strategic analyst and columnist. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.)