US Sutra | The Iran stalemate: Perhaps the answer lies in Moscow

The United States and Russia have never fought each other directly. They may never will.

From the Cold War’s proxy battlefields in Korea, Vietnam, and Afghanistan to today’s excruciatingly long-drawn conflicts in Ukraine and West Asia, Washington and Moscow have always preferred surrogates over suicide. Nuclear deterrence, geography, and raw self-interest make direct war unthinkable.

As President Donald Trump, once again, unsettles the world amid the U.S.-Israeli campaign against Iran and the stalled Ukraine stalemate, a grand bargain with Vladimir Putin is not wishful thinking—it may well be inevitable. Both proxy wars will be sorted out, and America may emerge the stronger for it.

When it comes to the Russo-American standoff, history is unambiguous. The two powers have circled each other for over a century without directly exchanging blows. In 1918, a few thousand U.S. troops landed in Siberia and northern Russia during the Bolshevik civil war, but they skirmished with Reds in support of Whites. Then withdrew when the Communists won.

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World War II saw them as uneasy allies against Hitler. Even before the hot war could end, the Cold War began. In Germany, defeated and now divided, with the wall of separation running right through Berlin. After Berlin, Cuba, and Vietnam followed, but without a single American soldier killing a Russian one in state-on-state combat.

Proxy fights? Endless. Direct war? Never.

MAD (mutually assured destruction) is not a mere slogan; it is physics and arithmetic. Two nuclear arsenals larger than the rest of the planet combined ensure that any “limited” clash would end in mutual ruin. But in addition to MAD deterrence, there are some pragmatic considerations. Between the two, there are no border disputes. Their vital interests overlap or compete far less than the foreign-policy pundits pretend. More importantly, a certain degree of grudging mutual respect, understanding, and caution persist on both sides.

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Cut to recent times: Ukraine is Exhibit A of the proxy pattern. Since 2022, the United States has funneled over $175 billion into a European conflict with no American blood at stake, only prestige and the military-industrial complex’s profit margins. Kyiv fights back bravely; Russia grinds forward. Yet neither threatens the other’s existence. NATO expansion to Russia’s border was provocative; Moscow’s response was predictable great-power realism. The war has become a meat grinder funded by American taxpayers while Europe dithers.

Exhibit B: Iran. Which follows a similar script, albeit inversely. A great power attacks a smaller state. But with a crucial difference. It has the smartest ally in the region, perhaps in the world: Israel. Also, the US has already booted out the Russian proxy, Bashar al‑Assad of Syria, who is hiding in Moscow under Russian protection. Regime change in Syria was the foretelling of similar action in Iran, the epicenter of terror in the region.

Moscow supplies Tehran with drones, satellite imagery, calibrated intelligence, and perhaps much more that is not evident on the surface. As the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, Russia gains leverage, oil prices shoot through the roof; the balance of power tilts again. Moreover, engagement, some would say entrapment in West Asia, keeps Washington’s eyes off Donbas. In the meanwhile, the repressive IRGF-run Tehran totters on for another week. It continues to harass U.S. forces and allies; Tel Aviv is bombed; Dubai burns. And Gulf shipping is booby-trapped.

What can the great disrupter Trump, the dealmaker, do?

He has declared that he does not want US troops on the ground or soldiers’ returning home in body bags. Perpetual confrontation is not his game. Iran cannot turn into his Vietnam or Afghanistan.

During his first term he proved he could sit face to face with Putin, call him out on alleged election meddling and Crimea, and still extract practical results. During that term, there were no new Russian adventures. The invasion of Ukraine was Putin’s gift to his predecessor, Joe Biden.

Now, leaks of back-channel proposals such as Putin offering to choke intelligence sharing with Iran if Washington eases its Ukraine throttle. The White House rejected the crude swap, but such proposals and counterproposals suggest that give and take is possible, even imminent.

Moscow’s price list is open for bidding. Trump understands leverage: ramp up pressure on Russian energy if needed, dangle sanctions relief and European security guarantees, and tie Iran’s nuclear programme to verifiable prohibitions. A grand bargain emerges naturally. Ukraine neutral, outside NATO, with realistic territorial compromises and ironclad security assurances.

In return, Iran squeezed by its only major patron, caves in. Hezbollah is neutralised by Israel and the Houthis by bribes. Russia gets economic breathing room and a face-saving exit from its quagmire. America gets out of the proxy business, pivots hard to China, and stops bleeding oil.

Reagan negotiated with Gorbachev while calling the Soviet Union an evil empire. Nixon opened China while bombing North Vietnam. Interests, not emotions, drive great powers. Putin is a ruthless kleptocrat, but he is rational. He respects strength, not lectures from Brussels or Davos.

A frozen or partitioned Ukraine is better than a forever war that weakens the West and enriches Beijing. An Iran denuclearised, even partitioned, with Russian cooperation is better than one racing for the bomb while the US chases ghosts in eastern Ukraine.

To return to my opening theme, America and Russia will not fight directly. They will come to an understanding. The solution to the Iran impasse may not lie in West Asia, but in the hotline between Trump and Putin.

History, once again, is on the side of the dealmakers.

(The writer, currently Sri Aurobindo Chair (Hon.) at Vedere University, is an author and columnist. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.)