Sheikh Hasina: Daughter of democracy and her boat in troubled water

As Bangladesh, an ascending and sprouting nation of 170 million people, heads towards the general election in January 2024, tensions and controversies surrounding the incumbent Awami League are mounting. The poll-bound nation will decide its fate by placing 300 candidates of its choice in the Jatiya Sansad, the unicameral parliament of the nation. Additionally, 50 more seats are reserved for women.

During the Hasina years, Bangladesh has progressed immensely in several socio-economic parameters such as per capita income, HDI and GDP. However, poverty, price hikes and massive corruption remain irritants for Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, the scion of Sheikh Mujib, the founding father of Bangladesh, also known as the “daughter of democracy”.

Delivering a multitude of promises, mostly on the front of infrastructure building like roads, railways and water connectivity, as well as other futuristic super-mega projects like the Padma Bridge, Prime Minister Hasina, seeking her fifth term, has reasons to be in a buoyant mood. However, her party and the administration are accused of massive corruption, human rights violations and resentful usage of the Digital Security Act (now Cyber Security Act).

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The US has imposed visa restrictions on several Bangladeshi officials and political functionaries, “responsible for or complicit in undermining the democratic electoral process in Bangladesh”. This move was just after an announcement from the US Secretary of State Antony Blinken on 24 May. Sanctions are even imposed on the media. The pressure from the west on Prime Minister Hasina is clear.

Surprisingly, when the anti-incumbency surge is high, Bangladesh Nationalist Party or BNP is sceptical of the election. BNP has been demanding formation of an inclusive caretaker government to ensure the free and fair election. But the prohibition of caretaker government is no longer constitutionally valid after it was amended.

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BNP is led by ailing leader Khaleda Zia, widow of former military leader Ziaur Rahman. During her two terms as prime minister, during 1991-1996 and 2001-2006, India-Bangladesh ties lost its warmth and India faced several challenges including Bangladesh supported insurgency issues in India’s North East. China and Pakistan would be their choice for the obvious reason.

There is sheer pressure on the government to conduct a free and fair internally and externally. It is expected that the election will be contested by all parties, eventhough BNP boycotts it. BNP, the main political rival of incumbent Awami League as well as their ally Jamat, the Isalmist hardliner party walked out of the election in 2014 but later contested the election in 2018. If it continues to boycott elections, BNP, which recently gained public trust, will neither be politically relevant nor a resistance force. The party will disappear from mainstream politics, despite its regular roars and road marching.

There’s a perception among the leaders of the 14-party member alliance of the Awami League that BNP won’t contest the election, after the arrest of its leaders following a long unrest. BNP continuously demanded withdrawal of charges against their gaffer Zia and her son Tarique Rahman, who took a political asylum in London. Mirza Fakrul Islam, the 75-year-old secretary general of the party, fans the flame and steers the resurgent opposition party from the ground.

A fierce battle is being fought by two rivals Awami League and BNP in the ideological fronts as well. In the midst of a series of attacks by fanatics on religious minorities and vandalization of Hindu idols, the Awami League is emphasizing an inclusive and secular environment in the country. The BNP-Jamat alliance would pick up a monolith Islamist template over a mosaic one.

The “October rebellion” of the BNP was successful. Waking up from a hibernation, the party has assembled the people’s support and addressed frustrations and disappointments of a large section of people. The wait is to watch whether they will be able to translate the anti-incumbency wave into electoral success.

Managing the economy, forex reserve crisis, inflation, unemployment, corruption, soaring price of essential commodities and power cuts will continue to be the challenges, whoever conquers the chair. If Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina secures a fifth term, the longest serving leader will have to strictly handle the corruption and settle the disputes between the frictions of her party. The questions on authoritarianism, autocracy and dynastic politics from the west and homegrown critics will continue to prick her. She has to fix the leak in her boat before she sails further.

The author is a foreign affairs journalist and contributor to Dhaka Tribune and Dhaka Tribune Bangla. He consulted a Dhaka based think-tank and its global conclave. He can be reached on Koo and Twitter on @Ayanangsha. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely that of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.

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