Pakistan polls: How another weak coalition in Islamabad will open a floodgate of issues for India

There is complete confusion among the ranks of analysts, both inside and outside Pakistan. Much-debated television debates and so-called expert commentors predicted that Imran Khan was destined to get a whopping vote and that the rest of the parties were history.

As always, reality proved them wrong. What Pakistan is looking ahead to is yet another coalition, which means instability and, surprise, more space for army manoeuvring.

The match fixing before

Everyone now knows the extent of pre-poll match fixing. Not just Imran Khan and an entire cohort of his party leaders jailed, but the sheer overkill in even charging his wife Bushra Bibi to seven years in jail, along with a Rs 0.5 million fine each, for “contracting marriage during the ‘Iddat’ (period of waiting)” of the former first lady.

That was the third conviction of the former Prime Minister in a week, and the ‘Iddat’ case was widely seen as an attempt at character assassination when really nothing else was available.

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That’s the key to Khan’s success. No matter how much the army tries, it has not been able to prove personal corruption, other than a case on taking gifts meant for the prime ministeral office at a fraction of their price. That’s peanuts in South Asian politics.

As for the serious charge of treason in publicly discussing a ‘secret’ cable that allegedly exposed a US plot to remove him, that’s pure politics—at least in the eyes of the voters.

The rigging thereafter

Post-poll fixing is not that easy, though there were no shortage of attempts. The most widely discussed case is that of Nawaz Sharif himself, whose win at the Lahore seat (NA-130) and the Mansehra seat are both highly suspicious. In the first, the numbers don’t match on Form 47, which the Election Commission of Pakistan issues, and in the latter, a fact check seems to conclude that Nawaz bagged 80,382 votes to PTI’s Gushtap Khan, who secured 105,249 votes and won the seat.

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There’s more, which this author noticed while watching emerging numbers. In Multan, where PTI leader Shah Mehmood Qureshi’s family has been winning for decades given his spiritual background in the ‘city of saints’, his daughter Meher Bano, who was leading comfortably in the count (as reported), followed by a Pakistan People’s Party candidate, suddenly lost to the son of former Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gillani, who was trailing third—in another much delayed count. On the other hand, there were notable wins that were ‘allowed’.

That includes Latif Khosa of the PTI, who won against veteran Pakistan Muslim League leader Khwaja Asif. Khosa left the PPP in a huff and joined the PTI at a time when almost everyone was leaving it. Another win for Zartaj Gul in DI Khan, who had earlier a dramatic escape from being arrested for multiple cases and then granted protective bail.

Then were the charges (not allegations) by one of the most respected politicians, Jibran Nasir, who testified to a huge run for PTI, but that polling stations were making excuses by not giving the final form to polling agents. Then there are videos in Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, which are usually the most courted because they’re pretty much open to ‘selection’, where voters are throwing out ballot boxes, not to mention terrorist attacks to prevent polling. All in all, the end verdict. The Pakistani army is terrible at this. The degree of blatant effort smacks either of desperation or inadequacy, or both.

The numbers point to electoral khichdi

The final results of 266 seats are yet to come in, with only 246 announced. But as of now, the PTI has won despite all odds. That is the main issue. If the scripted pre-poll ‘fixing’ had not taken place, there is no doubt at all that the party would have won hands down.

It is the unofficial result. The Election Commission website is still showing the 2023 party position: PTI-backed candidates stand at 97, PML (N) at 73, PPP at 53, and Muttahida Quami Movement (Pakistan) with 17 may become a kingmaker of sorts.

It has won hugely in Karachi. The math is terrible. Horse trading will be on with a vengeance for the top post, and even if PPP and PMLN combine, the total is not enough to form a simple majority at 134.

Then there is the loaded question as to whether PTI independents will agree to be part of a coalition. So far, the leaders have refused. Though PTI as a party has not been dissolved, most might prefer to be part of a small party, which they can dominate, and then raise chaos on the opposition benches. That is the PTI’s metier.

However, technically, these are ‘independents’ and open to persuasion. That’s not so easy. In Khyber Pakhtukhwa, for instance, few would agree to cross the floor to support PML (N), given their strong majority in the state and the fact that voters would hold them accountable.

The rage against the army is the highest here and in Balochistan, where the PTI unsurprisingly scored a zero. Blasts in Pishin and Qilla Saifullah targeted an independent and the JUI (F), respectively. Then there’s the PTI’s strong position in Punjab, where they will probably be more prone to alliances with the PPP and other real independents.

Is this the worst election ever? Yes, and no. Remember the party-less election of General Zia time, which was as ridiculous an experiment as any? Remember also the party cobbling tactics in the past where entire new groups were created, like the PML-Qaid by the formidable Choudhry’s of Gujerat?

The sheer violence inherent in Khan himself coming to power, with protests after protests, stands out for its sheer, blatant disregard for any international opinion.

Gen. Asim Munir will go down in history as one of the blackest generals ever, and the army has tarnished worse than ever before. His speech called for a ‘‘ healing touch’ (read, don’t target the army ever again), clearly not even bothering to hide that he’s in charge. Which other country’s army chief gives a post-election speech and direction? The dangers ahead are many.

First, Munir himself, given his lack of elite qualifications, such as passing out of the Kakul Military Academy for one, and the total chaos of the last several months, may lead to his being put to pasture. That’s no easy process. There are bound to be pulls and pushes within the army on this.

Second, another cobbled coalition is going to be unable to give the desperately needed guidance that the country needs. Expect more chaos inside the country. Three, Sharif’s nascent push to improve relations with India is likely to be a still-born initiative. Yet peace with India is entirely in Pakistan’s interests.

Finally, for those on television talking about ignoring Pakistan, remember that a dangerously ungoverned country will only see more foreign interference and erosion.

China is already well entrenched across the country. Others, like the US, will use a weak government for its own (diverse) interests. Writing off Pakistan as a nuisance to be simply set aside is the laziest of analyses. Delhi knows better. We’ve been through the trauma for years.

The writer is a Distinguished Fellow at the Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies, New Delhi. She tweets @kartha_tara. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely that of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost_’s_ views.

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