Nine lessons from tsuNiMo in Bihar: Decoding a verdict that could reshape Bharat’s politics

The Bihar election results have delivered a decisive message — that the state has categorically chosen development over identity politics; that caste still matters but political credibility remains paramount; that welfare works in elections but doles aren’t the only deciding factor; and that the time has come for the Congress to look beyond the Gandhis if the party has to bounce back and the Opposition has to regain its strength. Beyond the numbers, the Bihar verdict offers nine clear lessons that should shape the strategies of political parties in the months and years ahead.

1. Credibility Matters

The most striking takeaway from the Bihar Assembly result is the reaffirmation of the fact that credibility matters the most in politics. Despite being in power in the state for nearly two decades, Nitish Kumar, in the company of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, generated a ‘tsuNiMo’ wave simply because the two exuded credibility and trust that the Opposition sorely lacked. The JD(U)’s revival underscores Bihar’s continued faith in Nitish Kumar’s leadership. Similarly, the development-welfare record of the Modi government has been too significant to ignore.

2. Organisation Can Make or Break Elections

Charisma may attract crowds, but organisation wins elections. The BJP-JD(U)’s performance owes as much to the NiMo factor as it does to the meticulous planning of Amit Shah, whose micro-management of candidate selection, conflict resolution, and caste-community balancing played a crucial role in the Bihar elections. His ability to contain party rebellions post ticket distribution and harmonise the machinery ensured a disciplined, united campaign — something the RJD-Congress opposition clearly failed to do. The BJP and JD(U) are natural allies; when they join hands, they create a large electoral catchment area in the riverine state of Bihar.

3. Welfare Matters, But Only to a Point

Pre-poll welfare announcements such as the Rs 10,000 cash assistance to women undoubtedly influenced voters, but to attribute the NDA’s victory solely to doles would be reductive. The Opposition’s sarkari job–promise strategy — a hugely attractive proposition in Bihar, where government jobs are most sought after — failed to compensate for the lack of trust in its leadership. Welfare works best when delivered by a credible government; as a substitute for trust, it rarely succeeds. The delivery of Rs 10,000 cash at best would have been just the cherry on the cake, delivering for the NDA the votes of most undecided voters. Others would have voted for Nitish with or without these doles.

4. Caste Influences, But Doesn’t Dictate

Caste remains deeply entrenched in Bihar’s political landscape, as it is in several other states in the country. No one talks about caste politics in Maharashtra, Karnataka or Tamil Nadu, but in the case of Bihar it gets magnified. Yet the 2025 Assembly election demonstrated voters’ growing willingness to transcend caste boundaries when presented with alternative politics laced with a development agenda.

5. Media Visibility Is Not Electoral Strength

The Jan Suraaj experiment is a telling reminder that media amplification does not automatically translate into votes. I remember visiting Bihar in September and the sentiment on the ground suggested Nitish had regained his footing, and that Jan Suraaj was more the creation of the media, especially Lutyens’ media. The people on the roads of Patna were far clearer that while Prashant Kishor was making the right noises and attracting sizable media coverage, he would not gain enough votes in the state.

6. RJD Must Break Out of the M-Y Cycle

The RJD finds itself at a strategic crossroads. Reliance on the Muslim-Yadav (M-Y) base — approximately 30 per cent — has become a political ceiling rather than a foundation. The aggressive image associated with segments of its core vote bank alienates other communities, including those belonging to backward castes, consolidating them against the RJD-Congress alliance. Unless Tejashwi Yadav reinvents the party beyond its traditional identity politics, the alliance risks growing irrelevance.

7. The Shadow of ‘Jungle Raj’ Still Looms

The sudden media resurgence of Lalu Prasad Yadav may have backfired for the RJD, reviving memories of the “Jungle Raj” era of the 1990s. This reinforced the narrative contrast between Nitish Kumar’s institutional governance and Lalu Prasad Yadav’s institutionalised misgovernance. Open intimidation by some RJD supporters and viral videos of “desi kattas” reinforced voter anxieties. The surge in overall turnout, especially among women and youth, indicates broad rejection of any return to lawlessness.

8. Women: A Decisive Voting Bloc

Women voters have become a major factor in favour of the pro-incumbency wave in Bihar. Nitish Kumar’s long-term focus on women’s education and empowerment has paid dividends for the NDA. His latest welfare initiative for women further strengthened this support base. This, coupled with the Modi government’s welfare work, created a women vote-bank in favour of the NDA. The sharp rise in women’s turnout sent an emphatic signal: their vote is now central, not supplementary, to Bihar’s electoral outcomes.

9. Gandhi Family Becoming a Liability

The Bihar election has reinforced again that the Gandhis are a liability for the Congress in particular and the Opposition in general. Rahul Gandhi’s speeches may earn applause in Lutyens Delhi’s entrenched elite circles, but they fail to connect with the masses or capture the ground reality of Bihar. Even political commentators sympathetic to the Congress cause, such as Ramachandra Guha, acknowledge that the Congress party’s electoral fortunes cannot improve as long as it is controlled by the Gandhi family. For the broader Opposition, the question is becoming unavoidable: can they afford to let a Gandhi-led Congress spearhead anti-BJP efforts?

Conclusion

Bihar’s verdict delivers a clear message: electoral success today hinges less on identity or optics and more on governance, trust, credible delivery, and disciplined organisation. The Bihar election has not just altered the state’s political map; it has offered insights that could shape the future of Indian politics itself.

Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.