GhoseSpot | Gandhis not yet ready to hand over Congress reins to those with suspected loyalties

The high drama on the nomination for the Congress president poll is finally over. As there are only two candidates — Mallikarjun Kharge being the one clearly enjoying the blessings of the ‘high command’ and Shashi Tharoor, the friendly challenger — there is unlikely to be any suspense of last-minute withdrawal. Though it is conceivable that Tharoor might throw in the towel at the end sensing imminent defeat, from the look of it he would do it only after a few verbal volleys. This is already evident in the manifesto that has been published in his name. Tharoor is in no mood to go down without, at least, a symbolic fight.

Kharge’s selection, after setting up a decoy candidate in the form of Digvijaya Singh, pulls off the façade of neutrality of the Gandhis. The family is no longer shy of admitting that it is not prepared to hand over the reins of the party to anyone who does not pass their loyalty test with full marks. Once bitten by Ashok Gehlot, they were not willing to take a chance with Digvijaya Singh, who is younger, more energetic and can at times be unpredictable. Thus, at one level the Gandhi family’s objective has been fulfilled. Sonia Gandhi has succeeded in ensuring that the party’s executive responsibilities will rest in a safe pair of hands until either Rahul or Priyanka Gandhi are ready and willing to take over the mantle.

Meanwhile, Congress’ new communications chief Jairam Ramesh made it clear in a press-conference that everything happening in the party other than the Bharat Jodo Yatra led by Rahul Gandhi is a side-show. He specifically referred to the noise around the presidential elections and the unrest in Rajasthan. The real action, he insisted, is Rahul Gandhi’s long march. But much as Ramesh may wish, it is undeniable that not only did the developments in Delhi and Rajasthan divert attention from Rahul Gandhi’s mega-hyped roadshow, but they have also exposed serious faults in the Congress’ chain of command. The snapped wires may not concern the public at large who still identify the Congress with the Gandhis. But they could burn fuses in the internal circuitry causing power outages at crucial junctures.

The tone and tenor of Jairam Ramesh’ communication and his body language during the press conference exudes confidence bordering on arrogance. It gives the impression of the Congress being already back in power. It is reminiscent of Rahul Gandhi’s famous “Khatam, Tata, Bye-bye” declaration at the end of his 2019 “Chowkidar Chor Hain” campaign when he appeared certain of throwing the Modi government out of office. However, reality turned out to be otherwise as Narendra Modi returned with an even greater majority than his first term.

There is a similar disconnect now. At present the Congress has only two states under its control — namely Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh. It is part of a precariously placed coalition in Jharkhand, which can be overturned any time. Of these, Rajasthan is in flux and Chhattisgarh is showing signs of an incipient rebellion led by TS Singh Deo the bete noire of the incumbent Chief Minister Bhupesh Baghel. As all this was happening, attrition from its ranks continued unabated, the latest being Harsh Mahajan, the working president of the poll-bound state of Himachal Pradesh. The overall picture is not one that should make anyone complacent — with over the 3,000 km and 120 days of the Bharat Jodo Yatra remaining to be traversed.

In the coming months, there is a series of Assembly elections lined up, with the most important ones being in Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh, followed by Karnataka early next year. Though Jairam Ramesh and others have maintained that the objective of the Bharat Jodo Yatra is not to garner votes, the results of these elections are bound to cast their shadow on the Yatra. It will also impact the morale of the cadre. In the absence of any tall leader at the state level, Rahul Gandhi will have to campaign in these elections. In case of a defeat, the Congress president can take responsibility. However, some blame will stick on Rahul Gandhi as well. To that extent the utility of a loyal but nominal president will be both limited and short-lived. That is the real deal and there lies the importance of Shashi Tharoor.

The Congress’ stakes in the Bharat Jodo Yatra are high. Rahul Gandhi’s current set of advisers and strategists believe with this walkathon he will be able to reclaim his numero uno status among Opposition leaders. But the other Opposition leaders are not willing to allow him much space, at least as yet. The Aam Aadmi Party has trained its guns on the Congress’ disenchanted voter-base in Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh. So, the success of his “double or quits” gambit is predicated on the Congress’ performance in the forthcoming hustings.

A silver lining in the developments of this week has been the meltdown of the so-called G-23 caucus. To the surprise of many, Manish Tewari and Anand Sharma, two prime movers of the group, put their lot behind Mallikarjun Kharge rather than their compatriot Shashi Tharoor. While this may suggest a tacit acceptance of the Gandhi dynasty’s authority, one cannot rule out a change of heart if they see fresh headwinds against the party. Here, Ashok Gehlot’s revolt in Rajasthan gains significance. Considered to be a dyed in the wool Gandhi family devotee he showed that even a loyal retainer cannot be taken for granted beyond a point. Gehlot may still give in to the pressures of the high command. Shashi Tharoor in any case will not have the requisite numbers to take on the family nominee — Mallikarjun Kharge. But the messages sent out by these two individuals would have registered.

Sonia Gandhi may have averted a crisis with some timely help from old, trusted aides like AK Antony — but the writing on the wall is becoming clearer by the day that times are changing and fast.

The author is a current affairs commentator, marketer, blogger and leadership coach, who tweets at @SandipGhose. Views expressed are personal.

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