The Weather Report: Winter’s finally retreating, but rain god may still pay a surprise visit in some states

The winter seems to be finally retreating. That’s the feeling one is getting in the last few days, though both day and night temperatures remained below normal for most days, except in the west coast where sharp rise in day temperature is observed.

Between 5 and 12 February, clear and dry weather persists in Central India and almost no significant precipitation was recorded in Gujarat, Maharashtra and west Madhya Pradesh, while some parts of east Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh had showers in the middle of the week.

Due to passage of moderate Western Disturbance, the Himalayas recorded fresh light to moderate snowfall and parts of Rajasthan, Haryana, Delhi and western Uttar Pradesh had moderate intensity rains and thundershowers; some spots in the region reported hail storms causing damages to rabi crops. After the passage of the system, weather is very clear and sunny, rising the day temperatures above 20°C, giving much needed relief to the residents after a long harsh cold in January and early February.

In eastern India except some light rains at isolated places that are recorded on 10 February, clear weather is mainly observed in the rest of the days.

The southern peninsula started the week on a warm note with summer-like day time temperatures in Tamil Nadu and Kerala along with parts of west coast as the day time temperatures were going well above 35°C. Later in the week, a feeble trough is seen in the Easterlies at 0.9 km above mean sea level over coastal Tamil Nadu; strong north-easterly are prevailing over south coastal Tamil Nadu which lead to moderate to heavy rains in the delta during last two days.

Some moderate to heavy rainfall figures from stations in south Tamil Nadu ending 8:30 am on 12 February:

Kilvelur Velankanni: 112.6mm

Nagapattinam: 98.6mm

Parangipettai: 93mm

Bhuvanagiri: 91mm

Chidambaram: 89.8mm

Chidambaram (Cuddalore AWS): 78mm

Kollidam: 69mm

Mannargudi: 66.9mm

Thirukkuvalai: 57.3mm

Kilvelur Thirupoondi: 55.6mm

National Capital

Delhi Safdarjung Observatory recorded 16.8mm rains till 8:30 am on 9 February, with this crossed 100mm rainfall mark! Winter’s seasonal rain so far is 106.8mm since 1 January 2022.

Forecast from 13-19 February

• Weak Western Disturbance to affect Himalayas during 15-16 February; it will result in light snowfall over the parts of Kashmir, Ladakh and Himachal Pradesh. First system will not have any impact on plains of north India, instead it will change the wind direction; Southerly will lead to rise in day and night temperature over the region and mark spring onset right from mid-February onwards.

• Moderate Western Disturbance to approach Himalayas during 17-19 February, widespread moderate to heavy snowfall is anticipated in this spell over the hills and some impact in terms of rains can be expected in limited areas of plains.

• Due to change in wind direction during 15-16 February and induced lower level instability with rise in temperature might cause some cloud development in parts of east Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh; light to moderate showers may occur.

• Gujarat, Maharashtra, Bihar, Jharkhand, Odisha, West Bengal, Goa, Karnataka, Telangana, and Andhra Pradesh are likely to witness mainly dry weather across the next week.

• In presence of feeble trough in Easterlies, moderate rains will continue in south Tamil Nadu on Sunday and Monday and decrease significantly; warm weather will make a comeback in most parts of Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana by mid-week.

Region-wise weather forecast from 12-19 February

North India

Significant Weather Synopsis

• Strong North-westerly winds from 13-15 February

• Southerly winds during 15-19 February

• Weak Western Disturbance over Himalayas on 15-16 February

• Moderate Western Disturbance during 17-19 February.

Weather forecast for hills

Due to the impact of weak Western Disturbance cloudy skies, light snowfall is expected in Kashmir, Ladakh, Himachal Pradesh during 15-16 February.

In quick succession, another Western Disturbance will impact Himalayas during 17-19 February. This system will bring fresh moderate to heavy snowfall over Kashmir, Ladakh, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand’s upper reaches; lower ranges of the hilly states to witness moderate rains along with hailstorm activities.

Above normal night temperature and below normal day temperature are predicted for the period of 15-19 February.

Forecast for Plains

Cool nights and highly pleasant days with sunshine is expected in Punjab, Haryana, Delhi NCR, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh during 13-15 February. Night temperatures will maintain in single digits during the first half of the week.

Later in the week as winds from south take over both minimum and maximum temperature is expected to rise; parts of south-west Rajasthan will record day temperature above 30.0°C and stations in Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Delhi are expected to see sharp rise in day Temperature above 25.0°C from 15-19 February. As minimum temperature might cross 10.0°C, winter will fade away from the region and typical spring season temperature ranges to be observed.

Delhi-NCR will witness a sharp rise in temperature during the second half of next week; day temperature might jump in the range of 25-27°C by Wednesday. A Western Disturbance during the period of 17-19 February might bring some sudden change in weather, particularly over parts of Punjab and Haryana, where light to moderate rains may occur along with chances of hailstorms activities.

Expected minimum/maximum temperature from 13-19 February

• Punjab: 5.0 to 10.0°C, 22.0 to 26.0°C

• Haryana: 6.0 to 12.0°C, 23.0 to 28.0°C

• Rajasthan: 6.0 to 12.0°C, 26.0 to 34.0°C

• Delhi NCR: 8.0 to 12.0°C, 24.0 to 28.0°C

• Uttar Pradesh: 7.0 to 13.0°C, 24.0 to 30.0°C

Central India

• Easterlies earlier in week and southerly winds later this week.

Due to formation of cyclonic circulation on lower levels around south-east Madhya Pradesh and due to moisture feeding by southerly winds, scattered light to moderate rains or thundershowers are expected in east Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha during 15-16 February; lightning strikes and hailstorms are also possible.

In absence of any effective weather system, dry weather is expected in most parts of Gujarat, Konkan, Madhya Maharashtra, and Marathwada. Due to Easterlies on Sunday and Monday, day time temperature will remain above 30°C and up to 35°C. Slight drop in day temperatures will be observed during 15-16 February post resumption of Westerly winds in Gujarat and the Konkan region.

Mumbai is likely to observe day temperatures around 33-35°C on Sunday and Monday and might fall back to 30°C by 15 February. Nights will be pleasant with minimum temperature around 17-18°C during midweek.

Expected Minimum and Maximum Temperature from 13-19 February

• Gujarat: 12.0 to 19.0°C, 29.0 to 35.0°C

• Maharashtra: 13.0 to 21.0°C, 27.0 to 35.0°C

• Madhya Pradesh: 7.0 to 13.0°C, 22.0 to 30.0°C

• Chhattisgarh: 11.0 to 17.0°C, 25.0 to 33.0°C

East India

Significant Weather Synopsis:

• Cool North West winds during 13-16 February

• Mainly dry weather across East and North East India during this week.

In absence of any significant weather features, dry and clear weather is expected in Bihar, Jharkhand, Odisha, West Bengal, Assam, Sikkim, Manipur, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Nagaland, Tripura in the period of 13-19 February. Parts of Arunachal Pradesh may witness light to moderate rains due to impact of Western Disturbance during 16-19 February.

Clear skies during night and in presence of Northwest winds on lower levels will keep temperature under check in Bihar, Jharkhand, and West Bengal; nights to be cool with highly pleasant days. In south Odisha expect days to get warm this week.

Kolkata and adjoining areas witness minimum temperature in range of 14-16°C and maximum temperature to be around 25-27°C. No significant change in weather will be observed throughout this week.

Expected Minimum and Maximum Temperature from 13-19 February

• Bihar: 8.0 to 15.0°C, 23.0 to 29.0°C.

• Jharkhand: 10.0 to 17.0°C, 25.0 to 32.0°C.

• West Bengal: 11.0 to 18.0°C, 23.0 to 30.0°C.

•Odisha: 11.0 to 18.0°C, 27.0 to 34.0°C.

•North East India: 7.0 to 14.0°C, 19.0 to 27.0°C.

South India

Significant Weather synopsis

• Feeble trough in Easterlies on Sunday and Monday.

• Dry and hot weather in the middle of the week.

• Easterlies will once again bring wet weather in Tamil Nadu by next weekend.

Signs of summers, which commenced from Kerala and Tamil Nadu during last week, are now expected to spread in other parts of the southern peninsula. Day temperature is expected to rise by 2-4°C in Telangana, Andhra Pradesh due to southerly winds.

Slight rise in day and night temperature to observed in Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Goa, Karnataka during 15-19 February, Day time temperatures are expected to cross the 35.0°C mark in a lot of stations in southern Peninsula, while nights are likely to be pleasant with minimum temperature below 25°C at most places.

Goa, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana to be completely dry during this week. But moderate to heavy rains are expected to make a comeback in Tamil Nadu by 19 February. Bengaluru to witness dry weather throughout this week with minimum temperature in the range of 17-19°C, while maximum will be in the range of 30-31°C. Chennai will be dry across this week with night temperatures around 23-24°C and day temperature around 32-33°C with little discomfort due to humidity.

Expected Minimum and Maximum Temperature from 13-19 February

• Telangana: 16.0 to 20.0°C, 30.0 to 36.0°C.

• Andhra Pradesh: 20.0 to 25.0°C, 28.0 to 35.0°C.

•Goa: 21.0 to 23.0°C, 32.0 to 35.0°C.

• Karnataka: 15.0 to 22.0°C, 27.0 to 34.0°C.

• Tamil Nadu: 22.0 to 27.0°C, 30.0 to 38.0°C.

•Kerala: 22.0 to 27.0°C, 34.0 to 37.0°C.

The author, better known as the Rohtak Weatherman, interprets and explains complex weather patterns. His impact-based forecasts @navdeepdahiya55 are very popular in north India.

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