Maharashtra election result: Have bellwether seats cleared the test again in 2024?

Maharashtra will be ruled by the BJP-led Mahayuti government for another five-year term. The alliance is projected to win over 220 of 288-seats, with BJP alone leading on 132.

The Mahayuti, an alliance of three parties - BJP, Shiv Sena (Eknath Shinde) and Ajit Pawar-led NCP, now gets engaged in another crucial task of deciding on who would be the new Chief Minister of Maharashtra.

Amid Mahayuti’s lead in Maharashtra, let’s take a look at how the bellwether constituencies , who have correctly voted with the popular mandate in every state election since 1990.

Murbad

In the 2024 Maharashtra election, most Murbad voters voted in favour of BJP. As per the trends, the candidate from the constituency was leading by more than 50,000 votes.

Murbad has been holding the record of gauging the mood of Maharashtra after the Assembly election since 1952. It has also voted for a party that formed the government in the state after the polls.

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In the last assembly poll in 2019, 77 per cent of the total votes cast in Murbad was in favour of the BJP, while in 2014, 38 per cent of votes cast were in favour of the party

In 2009 and 2004, the maximum votes cast in Murbad were in favour of the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP). The case was similar in 1999. Between 1999 and 2014 – the Congress-NCP coalition was in power.

Between 1978 to 1990, Murbad had voted for the Congress candidate who contested the election.

The parties which were voted and won on these four bellwether seats went on to form the government in Maharashtra that year

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Kandivali

As the counting of votes continues and Maharashtra election result 2024 will be declared finally in a few hours, in Kandivali, another bellwether, BJP secured voters mandate with the candidate from the seat leading by over 83,000 votes.

In 2019 and 2014, Kandivali voted for the BJP. Before that, in the 1999, 2004 and 2009 state polls, the Congress candidate, who contested the seat, grabbed most votes.

Andheri East and Andheri West

In Maharashtra election 2024, Shiv Sena (Shinde) candidate was leading by over 25,000 votes in Andheri East, while in Andheri West BJP candidate was ahead by more than 19,500 votes.

During the two previous state polls, in 2014 and 2019, Andheri East voted for the Shiv Sena candidate, while Andheri West voted for BJP. Both these parties contested the 2014 Maharashtra Assembly election separately but formed a government in alliance.

In 2009, both Andheri East and West voted for the Congress candidate who contested for the seat.

Till 2004, Andheri was a single constituency after which it was divided into Andheri East and Andheri West.

From 1980-1990, Andheri voted for Congress candidates. It then gave the most votes to the Shiv Sena candidate in the 1995 election.

The constituency again voted for the Congress from 1999 to 2004.

Pune Cantonment

In another bellwether seat, Pune Cantonment, BJP candidate was leading by over 10,000 votes in 2014 polls.

The constituency in 2014 and 2019 gave maximum votes to the then BJP candidate.

Between 1999 to 2009 they voted for the Congress candidate who contested from the seat.

In 1995, Pune Cantonment voted the most for Shiv Sena candidate and in the 1990 election most votes went to the Congress candidate.

In Maharashtra election 2024, of the four bellwether constituencies three voted for BJP while Shiv Sena (Shinde) faction was leading on one and their votes are the same as rest of Maharashtra which voted BJP-led Mahayuti alliance with a massive majority.

The parties which were voted and won on these four bellwether seats earlier too have gone to form the government in Maharashtra that year.