Bellwether in Maharashtra: Exit polls predict a BJP win but these 4 seats tell the real winner

Maharashtra, which has been extremely politically active over the past couple of years, voted on November 20 for the new government. With Maharashtra election 2024 result to be declared on Saturday (November 23), exit polls project BJP-led Mahayuti alliance win in the state bagging 151 out of 288 Assembly seats.

As the people of Maharashtra and the rest of India are waiting with bated breath to know who will lead the government in the state for the next five years, there are certain constituencies that have a history of accurately reflecting the political mood of the voters in the state and therefore they are also called bellwether seats.

The parties which were voted and won on these four bellwether seats went on to form the government in Maharashtra that year

Bellwether seats of Maharashtra

In Maharashtra, there are four Assembly seats that have been categorised as bellwether as they have correctly voted with the popular mandate in every state election since 1990.

The bellwether seats of Maharashtra are - Andheri, Kandivali, Murbad and Pune Cantonment.

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Murbad

Among them, Murbad has been exceptional as it holds the record of gauging the mood of Maharashtra after the state election since 1952. It has also voted for a party that formed the government in the state after an assembly election.

In 2019, 77 per cent of the total votes cast in Murbad was in favour of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), while in 2014, 38 per cent of votes cast were in favour of the BJP.

In 2009 and 2004, the maximum votes cast in Murbad were in favour of the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) and the case was similar in 1999. During these years – 1999 and 2014 – the Congress-NCP coalition was in power.

From 1978 to 1990, Murbad had voted for the Congress candidate who contested the election.

However, in 1995, Congress’s monopoly in Maharashtra after the Shiv Sena-BJP coalition came to power. During the 1995 state Assembly election, Murbad felt the pulse and voted in the majority for BJP candidate - Vishe Digambar Narayan. It was the first time a non-Congress MLA won the seat.

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Andheri

Till 2004, Andheri was just a single constituency before being divided into Andheri East and Andheri West.

Ahead of the change, the Andheri constituency voted for the party or coalition that went on to form a government in the state.

In both 2014 and 2019, Andheri East voted for the Shiv Sena candidate, while Andheri West voted for BJP.

Both these parties contested the 2014 Maharashtra Assembly election separately but formed a government in alliance.

In 2009, both Andheri East and West voted for the Congress candidate who contested for the seat.

From 1980-1990, Andheri voted for Congress candidates. It then gave the most votes to the Shiv Sena candidate in the 1995 election.

From 1999 to 2004, it again voted for the Congress.

Kandivali

Kandivali in 2019 and 2014, too, voted for the BJP. Before that, in the 1999, 2004 and 2009 Maharashtra Assembly polls, the Congress candidate, who contested the seat, grabbed most votes.

Pune Cantonment

Both in 2014 and 2019 maximum voters in Pune Cantonment gave their vote to the BJP candidate.

Between 1999 to 2009 they voted for the Congress candidate who contested from the seat.

In 1995, Pune Cantonment voted the most for Shiv Sena candidate and in the election before that (in 1990), most votes went to the Congress candidate.

2024 Maharashtra Exit Poll result

Poll polls gave Mahayuti the edge in Maharashtra with the alliance projected to win 151 out of 288 seats, easily surpassing the 145 majority mark.

The Congress-led Maha Vikas Aghadi, meanwhile, has been projected to win 129 seats.

Pollster People’s Pulse has predicted an upper limit of 195 seats for the BJP-led alliance while suggesting that MVA may not be able to cross the 100-mark.

Matrize has predicted Mahayuti’s win with the alliance getting between 150 and 170 seats. It projected MVA to get 110-130 seats.

Dainik Bhaskar’s predictions suggest a neck-to-neck fight between the two alliances with the pollster forecasting 125-140 seats for Mahayuti and 135-150 seats for MVA.