India takes bold steps to revive BIMSTEC, ball now with other members to take it forward

The fifth Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) Summit was pulled off by Colombo on 30 March.

Colombo was in the throes of an economic crisis and often protests broke out. It would have been embarrassing if such protests emerged when BIMSTEC leaders were in town. Thus, the virtual summit was a boon. India worked hard to resuscitate the regional grouping at a time of global upheavals and post-pandemic recovery.

The Myanmar shadow was upon the summit. Thailand and Myanmar, the ASEAN members, are both under military rule. While Thailand assuaged ASEAN members, Myanmar faces criticism for not dealing with its internal problems appropriately. Myanmar remains suspended from ASEAN summits. The ASEAN summit 2021 and the China-ASEAN summit both saw the absence of Myanmar.

The US brought pressure on Colombo and lobbied India to avoid having Myanmar’s coup leader, Gen Min Aung Hlaing, at the summit, even virtually. More than ASEAN, the US sought to uphold the ASEAN position. Thailand, the incoming BIMSTEC Chair, is ambivalent on Myanmar within ASEAN. It went along with the invitation to the General, perhaps hoping to alter the position within ASEAN too.

ASEAN made no demarche to BIMSTEC, but the US would not countenance it. Originally the US-ASEAN summit was to be on 28-29 March but was postponed. Having the Myanmar coup leaders accepted would deviate from US preferences on who could attend the US-ASEAN Summit. Thus, the US pressure.

India, while it supports the ASEAN consensus, has kept communication with the military junta in Naypyidaw open. India’s construct of BIMSTEC has Myanmar as a key player. This is another nuanced variation from US policy since the Afghan withdrawal. As in Ukraine, so in Myanmar, India does not wish to take its attention off China. The US prefers to deal with Russia and democracy as its priorities.

BIMSTEC is now trying to take firmer steps forward. It does not suffer from high expectations since progress has been slow. BIMSTEC founded in June 1997 has remained an underplayed organisation with no real driving force. The India-Myanmar-Thailand cooperation on one axis, and a nascent Bangladesh-Bhutan-India-Nepal (BBIN) cooperation on another axis seem more logical. That would leave out Sri Lanka, the only island country among BIMSTEC. Thus, Sri Lanka worked harder with India to secure the summit during its chairmanship. It deserves some credit for getting important agreements worked out.

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There are important reasons for BIMSTEC to succeed: In an arena of intense competition in the Indian Ocean, the Bay of Bengal region could be an area for functional collaboration. The inability of SAARC to get this done due to Pakistan’s obduracy and the willingness of some SAARC members to get China involved, has put a colon on the SAARC process. Just as India had broken through the SAFTA negotiations by having a FTA with Sri Lanka, in 1998, BIMSTEC is another possibility of reviving parts of the functionality of SAARC.

Five of the eight SAARC countries are in BIMSTEC. Pakistan and Afghanistan are inimical to India and not conducive to collaboration. It is only the Maldives, which is a friend of India, that is not in BIMSTEC. The two ASEAN countries with which India has land connectivity, Myanmar and Thailand are part of BIMSTEC. The logic is there, but somehow the ideas have not bloomed.

All the countries in BIMSTEC other than Bhutan have a strong dose of Chinese economic intervention. Most have a defence partnership with China. India would remain comfortable with this provided the level-playing field for economic interests was provided. Chinese influence should not lead to security threats to India. Bangladesh and Myanmar have played their cards well. Some other countries in the region have been more diffident. They would do well to learn from the Ukraine crisis, which shows that friends who speak loudly but are at a distance find it difficult to come to your aid when you provoke a large neighbour.

BIMSTEC signed several important agreements, including finally its charter and its connectivity plans. The connectivity plan is interestingly linked to an Asian Development Bank (ADB) funding mechanism and not to the BRI or AIIB. There are enough projects developed by the ERIA in Jakarta for the region. It requires the political will and enabling agreements for connectivity, like motor vehicle agreements, transit agreements and the like.

BIMSTEC would do well to find two lighthouse projects and undertake them initially with the help of the ADB and see what benefits they bring.

In the areas of non-traditional threats, there is more commonality and capacity building among BIMSTEC countries. Much of this is happening by often adding on to existing cooperation.

India leads the security pillar as without security, trust will not develop and without trust, cooperation remains weak.

The functional collaboration must come to the fore and here comes the essential question of funding. India would like to have a non-China alternative for which the ADB is a good option. India and Japan tried to develop joint projects in Bangladesh, Myanmar and Sri Lanka. At the 14th India-Japan summit between Prime Ministers Fumio Kishida and Narendra Modi, the joint statement specifically mentioned pursuit of the projects in Bangladesh. It was quiet on Myanmar and Sri Lanka. In Myanmar, the military coup has halted Japanese projects. In Sri Lanka, they played ducks and drakes with the India-Japan East Container Terminal project in Colombo port.

It is an undeniable perception that Sri Lanka did not want an India-Japan project, which would counter the Chinese BRI-based projects in Sri Lanka. Therefore, going the route of the ADB is a better option, which will perhaps not challenge the China card which some BIMSTEC members seem to hold.

India has taken bold steps for BIMSTEC. It is for the other members to also step up. Confidence building and funding should not be only at Indian initiatives.

It is necessary to pull BIMSTEC off think tanks and academic tables and onto entrepreneurs and consultants for firm results. The financing mechanisms offered to ASEAN which are unutilised should be used for BIMSTEC connectivity.

The next steps must be to move from oft-expressed aspirations to small achievements.

The writer is a former Ambassador to ASEAN. Views expressed are personal.

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