WTC final: Scenarios for India and Bangladesh ahead of two-match Test series

It will be all to play for when India host Bangladesh for a two-match Test series, starting with the first Test in Chennai on Thursday. This series is the resumption of a long journey ahead for India in the 2023-25 World Test Championship (WTC) cycle, which includes three Tests at home against New Zealand, and a five-match Test series against Australia in Australia later this year.

Bangladesh, on the other hand, come into this series with a historic 2-0 series win against Pakistan to boast about. That took them to fourth in the WTC standings with 45.83 per cent, but they may still not have a realistic chance of making next year’s WTC final at Lord’s. For the Tigers, it’s just about putting their best foot forward and face the challenges with a brave face.

World Test Championship 2023-25 standings

Let’s now take a look at the scenarios for both India and Bangladesh ahead of the two-match Test series:

India (1st place, 68.52%)

Remaining matches: Two matches vs Bangladesh (Home), two matches vs New Zealand (Home), five matches vs Australia (Away)

Despite not having played a Test in six months, India remain on top of the WTC standings with 74 points from nine matches and a win per cent of 68.52. Surely, you cannot rule out India’s chances at this point. But, the truth is that Rohit Sharma and Co still have a long way to go, despite a seemingly comfortable life at the top of the standings.

India have 10 Tests remaining in this WTC cycle, which includes five at home and five away. Should they beat Bangladesh 2-0 and New Zealand 3-0, that would take India’s points percentage to 79.76, provided they do not endure any points deduction. Winning five matches and drawing one, or even winning four matches and drawing one, would see them have over 60 per cent points. However, should India win five and lose five, their points percentage would be 58.77, which means they could be forced to depend on other results to go in their favour.

Bangladesh (4th place, 45.83%)

Remaining matches: Two matches vs India (Away), two matches vs West Indies (Away), two matches vs South Africa (Home)

Despite their points percentage looking a bit inferior on paper, not all hopes are lost for Bangladesh. The Tigers are flourishing in fourth place after beating Pakistan, and have six more matches in this WTC cycle. Should they win each of their six matches, Bangladesh’s points percentage would be 72.91.

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Should they clinch four wins and draw two matches, they would have points percentage of more than 60. Should they lose both the Tests against India and win the remaining four, Bangladesh would only have 56.25 per cent points, which will mean that they depend on other results. More than two losses will drop their PCT beyond 56.25 and qualifying from there will be a near impossible task.