IPL Playoffs Race: Scenarios for KKR, CSK, GT, RCB, RR, SRH, DC and LSG

Gujarat Titans beat Chennai Super Kings by 35 runs in the Indian Premier League in Ahmedabad on Friday. With the result, Chennai remain fourth in the points table while Gujarat jumped from last to eighth, keeping their hopes of qualifying for the next phase mathematically alive.

Now, only 11 league matches are left to be played in the IPL with no team officially qualified - although the likes of Rajasthan Royals (RR) and Kolkata Knight Riders (KKR) are within touching distance of booking their spots. While no one is confirmed of progressing, two teams are out of reckoning - Mumbai Indians and Punjab Kings .

A look at the playoffs race for the remaining teams in IPL 2024:

Chennai Super Kings (12 points, 12 matches, +0.491 NRR)

Remaining matches: RR (H), RCB (A)

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Four defeats in last six matches have hampered CSK’s playoff chances. They now need wins in their two remaining matches - vs Rajasthan Royals and Royal Challengers Bengaluru - to secure a spot in the top-four.

Despite the setback in Ahmedabad on Friday, they still have an advantage over Delhi Capitals. Facing RR next, a loss could jeopardise their chances further as several teams could reach 16 points. All of RR, KKR, SRH and DC/LSG can reach 16 points or more.

If CSK finish on 14 points, they will need other teams to lose to secure a higher position based on superior net run rate.

Gujarat Titans (10 points, 12 matches, -1.063 NRR)

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Remaining matches: KKR (H), SRH (A)

Despite the win against CSK , GT have a small chance of making through. This is in large part due to a woeful net run rate, something skipper Shubman Gill addressed after beating Chennai. For GT to qualify, they’d have to hope that SRH, DC and LSG also remain on 14 points after their matches. Not just that, Gujarat will also need to win big against KKR and SRH to up their NRR.

Kolkata Knight Riders (16 points, 11 matches, 1.453 NRR)

Remaining matches: MI (H), GT (A), RR (A)

With 16 points and an excellent NRR, KKR are all but certain of progressing unless the rest of the pack catch up or if Kolkata mess up royally. Even if they do lose all three matches, only two teams can do better than them - RR and SRH - and two more can finish on 16 points - CSK and one of LSG or DC. One more win will almost certainly see them take top-two spots.

Rajasthan Royals (16 points, 11 matches, 0.476 NRR)

Remaining matches: CSK (A), PBKS (H), KKR (H)

Like KKR, Rajasthan Royals are also in command and control of their destiny. One win and they will be assured of IPL playoff qualification. Even if they lose all three, they can only be out of contention if winner of DC vs LSG reaches a better NRR and finishes on 16 points. Having dominated the league stage, they’d be more concerned with a top-two finish.

Sunrisers Hyderabad (14 points, 12 matches, 0.406 NRR)

Remaining matches: GT (H), PBKS (H)

Their massive win over LSG by 10 wickets and 62 balls to spare has given their chances of qualifying a massive boost. They can even finish in the top-two if pieces fall into place nicely for the Pat Cummins-led side.

Playing teams in the bottom three, at home, comes at the most opportune time for the high-scoring and high-flying Hyderabad. Win one and they might have done enough for a playoff spot.

Lucknow Super Giants (12 points, 12 matches, -0.769 NRR)

Remaining matches: DC (A), MI (A)

LSG are in a terrible place. They were thumped by SRH which has hurt their NRR significantly. Visuals of KL Rahul being public rebuked by team owner Sanjiv Goenka has created disquiet in the team. Even if they win their remaining two matches, RR, KKR, SRH and CSK can all finish above them. If they win one, there’s potential for SRH, DC and RCB to better them based on better NRR.

Delhi Capitals (12 points, 12 matches, -0.316 NRR

Remaining matches: RCB (A), LSG (H)

CSK’s loss to GT has given DC a chance to make the playoffs. Yet, they could miss out if CSK win their remaining two matches and top three teams reach 18 points.

If DC beat RCB but lose to LSG, they can still finish in the top-four provided LSG lose to already eliminated MI and none of the teams which are currently on 12 points are able to add two more to their tally. Then it could be a two-way face-off between DC and LSG for the fourth spot.

Royal Challengers Bengaluru (10 points, 12 matches, 0.217 NRR)

Remaining matches: DC (H), CSK (H)

At one stage RCB looked down and out but they’ve staged a staggering comeback to keep themselves in it, albeit mathematically. With four wins in a row, RCB are in it but even if they do make it six on the bounce, it may not be enough for the playoffs.

Although, if the results go their way, a healthy NRR could salvage their season. If RCB win both of their home games and the following sequence of events transpire, they can progress: SRH and CSK lose their remaining matches and LSG win one more at best. Then RCB can surpass SRH on NRR while staying ahead of DC and LSG.