Team India's WTC Final scenarios: Can Rohit Sharma and Co still qualify after losing Test series to New Zealand?

Team India went down to New Zealand by 113 runs in the second Test in Pune on Saturday, thus suffering their first Test series defeat at home in 12 years. India had been set a target of 359 on Saturday, the third day of the second Test after the Black Caps were all out for 259. Yashasvi Jaiswal (77) got off to a strong start and was even involved in a 62-run stand with Shubman Gill for the third wicket.

However, apart from Jaiswal, most of India’s batters failed to contribute. From 81/1 at one stage, India found themselves reeling at 178/7 at tea break. Ravichandran Ashwin and Ravindra Jadeja forged a 39-run stand for the eighth wicket, but India’s hopes of keeping themselves alive in the series diminished after Ashwin departed in the 50th over.

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Eventually, India were all out for 245 in 60.2 overs. India lost the first Test against New Zealand in Bengaluru last week by eight wickets, and a second consecutive Test loss significantly impacts India’s chances of qualifying for the final of the 2025 World Test Championship that will be held at Lord’s next June. We take a look at India’s qualification scenarios.

Also see | IND vs NZ 2nd Test Day 3 LIVE Score

Updated WTC standings after second IND vs NZ Test

Let’s now take a look at India’s WTC final qualification scenarios should they lose the second Test:

India’s qualification scenarios for WTC final explained

Despite their loss to New Zealand in Pune, India remain on top of the World Test Championship (WTC) points table with 62.82 points percentage (PCT) after 13 matches (98 points). Australia are in second place with a points percentage of 62.50 (90 points). Prior to the second Test loss, India had a PCT of 68.06, and although India still hold the No 1 spot, their lead over Australia is very narrow.

New Zealand were fifth before their victory and have now climbed a spot up to fourth, with a points percentage of 50.

Also see | When did Virat Kohli and Rohit Sharma last score hundreds in home Test matches?

India play one more Test against New Zealand, with the third Test taking place in Mumbai from 1 November. That will be followed by the much-awaited five-match Test series against Australia in Australia, starting with the first Test in Perth from 22 November. In order to secure qualification to the WTC final without depending on other teams to do them a favour, India must win the third Test against the Kiwis, as well as win at least three out of the five Tests against Australia Down Under.

If India draw one Test and win the other five matches, then their PCT would be 71.05. If India go on to win all their remaining Tests, it would put them in a favourable position with a PCT of 74.56. However, these scenarios look very difficult.

A minimum of two wins will keep India in contention but they will need other results to go in their favour. For India to keep a PCT of 60 or more, which is seen as a safe zone, then they will need to win at least two Tests and draw the other four Tests.