Asia Cup 2025 Scenarios: How India, Pakistan and Bangladesh can qualify for the final

Bangladesh take on India in an intriguing Asia Cup 2025 Super 4 clash on Wednesday (24 September) as Pakistan edged Sri Lanka on Tuesday to boost their chances of reaching the final. With the highest net run rate (NRR) of +0.689 and two points after beating Pakistan in their only Super 4 match so far, India are at the top of the points table, followed by Pakistan, who have two points from two matches.

Bangladesh also have two points so far from one match, after beating Sri Lanka, but they are third due to an inferior NRR (+0.121) than Pakistan (+0.226). Sri Lanka are at the bottom of the table and out of contention.

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It could have been Pakistan and not Sri Lanka, but the Islander suffered a five-wicket defeat in Abu Dhabi. They batted first and made just 133/8 as Shaheen Afridi took three wickets. In reply, Pakistan completed the chase with two overs to spare as Mohammad Nawaz smashed 38 not out off 24 balls.

Three more matches are left in the Super 4 stage, including two for Bangladesh.

Remaining matches in Asia Cup Super 4 stage:

India vs Bangladesh (24 September)

Pakistan vs Bangladesh (25 September)

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India vs Sri Lanka (26 September)

Asia Cup final scenarios for India, Pakistan and Bangladesh

India: Suryaumar Yadav and Co have the best NRR and still have two matches. The Men In Blue are in the driving seat and a victory over Bangladesh will virtually confirm their spot in the Asia Cup 2025 final. Even a defeat on Wednesday would not push them towards elimination, as a victory over Sri Lanka and a solid NRR can still take them to the final.

Pakistan: A victory over Sri Lanka has put them in a very strong position. If India beat Bangladesh on Wednesday, the Pakistan vs Bangladesh match on Thursday becomes a virtual semi-final. But if Bangladesh beat India, then Pakistan will need to beat the Bangla Tigers and wait for the result in the India vs Sri Lanka match. If India beat Sri Lanka, then three teams will be on 4 points each and NNR will decide the finalists.

Bangladesh: Beating India will give them a major boost and another victory over Pakistan would ensure qualification to the final. Losing against India and winning against Pakistan will also be enough, but there’s less than 24 hours between their matches against India and Pakistan. They may lose both games. The best-case scenario for Bangladesh is to win at least one of the matches against India or Pakistan.

A win over India for Bangladesh and a defeat to Pakistan would mean the finalists would be decided through NRR on the last day of the Super 4 stage. But Bangladesh’s defeat to India would turn the Bangladesh match vs Pakistan into a virtual semi-final.