 "With Michel Barnier as French PM, has Macron made Marine Le Pen France’s ‘kingmaker’?")
President Emmanuel Macron’s appointment of veteran politician Michel Barnier as prime minister on Thursday has handed Marine Le Pen and her far-right National Rally (RN) a significant opportunity. The political deadlock that followed the summer’s snap election now places the far right in an unusual position of influence.
73-year-old Michel Barnier is a member of The Republicans and the EU’s former chief Brexit negotiator.
As France braces for potential no-confidence motions and the looming challenge of passing a budget, all eyes are on how Barnier will navigate French politics at the apex. With Le Pen’s party holding significant sway, many are calling her the new “kingmaker” in French politics.
How has Marine Le Pen become ‘kingmaker’?
The goal was clear: to break the gridlock that emerged following inconclusive elections where no party or coalition managed to secure the 289 seats required for a majority in the National Assembly.
The left-wing New Popular Front, which won the most seats (193), had put forward Lucie Castets, a 37-year-old civil servant, as their candidate for prime minister, but Macron quickly dismissed her candidacy, citing concerns over her ability to stabilise the government.
This led to widespread criticism from leftist leaders. Jean-Luc Mélenchon, leader of France Unbowed, denounced the appointment as a “denial of democracy,” while Socialist Party leader Olivier Faure echoed the sentiment, declaring on X, “We are entering a regime crisis.”
Barnier’s coalition, consisting of Macron’s pro-centrist group and the conservative Republican Right, controls only 213 seats — well short of a majority.
This means Barnier’s government is now dependent on the goodwill of Le Pen’s National Rally, which holds 142 seats. As Le Pen remarked, “The National Rally has 142 lawmakers, you can’t ignore them.”
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Despite coming third in the elections, Marine Le Pen and her National Rally now find themselves in a powerful position. While the left has sworn to support any no-confidence motions against Barnier’s government, the National Rally’s tacit backing is essential to prevent the government from being toppled before it even begins.
National Rally leaders have made their demands clear: they want policies focused on immigration, security, and purchasing power, as well as the introduction of proportional representation in parliament.
Le Pen has also stressed the importance of “respect” for far-right lawmakers. In her own words, Barnier’s nomination meets at least one of their criteria: “someone who would respect different political forces and be able to speak with the National Rally.”
However, the support of the National Rally is far from unconditional. Le Pen and her party have signalled that they will be watching closely to ensure Barnier’s government aligns with their priorities. “We reserve all political means of action if this is not the case in the coming weeks,” warned Jordan Bardella, president of the National Rally.
What challenges does Barnier face?
While Barnier has experience as a skilled negotiator, his political journey is fraught with challenges. The task of balancing the demands of the far right, the centre-right, and the pro-Macron centrists, all while trying to pass necessary legislation, is a daunting one.
Macron’s former prime minister, Gabriel Attal, had resigned two months ago, leaving the country in political paralysis for more than 50 days — an unprecedented situation in the Fifth Republic’s 66-year history.
Barnier is expected to focus on key issues like security, healthcare, and jobs, but his greatest challenge lies in addressing France’s ballooning debt and deficit, among the largest in the eurozone.
Also Read: 3 political challenges Macron faces even after nominating a new PM
Alarmed lawmakers have already warned that passing a budget will be “complicated” without a clear governing majority. Brussels will also be watching closely, as France has been criticised for breaking EU financial discipline rules.
In this context, compromise will be essential. Le Pen herself acknowledged this, stating, “Compromises will be needed to solve the budget situation.” However, while the far right could topple the government, some analysts believe it’s not in their best interest to trigger another crisis so soon.
How has Macron’s party taken to his latest move?
The decision to engage with Le Pen’s National Rally has sparked unease within Macron’s own party. For years, Macron has positioned himself as a bulwark against the extremes of both the left and the right. But now, faced with a fractured parliament, he has little choice but to court the far right in order to form a functioning government.
Some centrist lawmakers have expressed discontent with this approach. Politico quoted a lawmaker who described Barnier’s fate as “held by the National Rally.” Others see this move as a betrayal of the “Republican front,” a traditional pact among mainstream parties to keep the far right out of power.
Marine Tondelier, leader of the Greens, accused Macron of “cozying up to the far right,” claiming that he “went looking for a figure who was further and further to the right.”
Despite these tensions, Macron remains focused on achieving stability. His government, according to a statement from the presidency, aims to serve “the country and the French people” by rallying as much support as possible.
However, the growing anger against Macron’s leadership, particularly after his decision to raise the retirement age from 62 to 64, looms over the political landscape.
What next?
As Barnier’s government faces a likely no-confidence vote when parliament convenes, the question remains: how long can his administration last? If the far right withdraws its support, or if the left’s demonstrations gather enough momentum, Barnier’s tenure could be short-lived.
With Macron’s term-limited presidency set to end in 2027, the political climate is already shifting. Édouard Philippe, one of Macron’s former prime ministers, has announced his candidacy for the next presidential election. Le Pen’s position as a kingmaker gives her and her party a critical role in shaping France’s political future.
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