3 political challenges Macron faces even after nominating a new PM

After a long delay of 50 days, France’s President Emmanuel Macron finally named the European Union’s Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier on Thursday as the country’s next prime minister. The decision came as a compromise and also as part of a political strategy to break the post-election political stalemate that plagued Macron’s administration. He was functioning with a caretaker government, unable to forge a sustainable coalition to form a stable cabinet in France.

In a statement, the Elysee Palace said that Barnier had been “tasked with forming a unifying government to serve the country and the French”. At 73, Barnier is the oldest person to become the prime minister in modern France.

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The context of Macron’s move

Following a setback in the European Union election, Macron went for a snap legislative poll, which didn’t go the way he might have anticipated. The French parliamentary election didn’t give a majority to any of the parties and threw the national politics in a governing gridlock.

The Left wing sprang a surprise, emerging as the largest faction with the New Popular Front (NPF) winning 188 seats in the 577-member National Assembly. Macron’s centrist coalition Ensemble got 161 seats while the Far-Right coalition, the National Rally, got 142.

Macron’s then-PM Gabriel Attal announced resignation on July 16, a week after the electoral setback. The French president asked Attal and his ministers to continue in the caretaker government as the country was hosting the Summer Olympic Games followed by the Paralympic Games.

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Now, Barnier has replaced Attal, but the national parliament remains divided and hung as no new long-term coalition has been formed. Barnier is a veteran in French politics and has held several key posts in the French government in the past, and has also been the EU commissioner.

A staunch pro-European, Barner became Macron’s choice after he considered and rejected a string of prime ministerial candidates since the legislative election results were announced. And he is likely to win the support of a majority of the legislators despite the Left wing announcing to vote against him. The Far-Right members are expected to tilt the parliamentary vote in his favour.

But Macron still faces three big challenges

Barnier — the conservative Les Republicains lawmaker, a four-time cabinet minister and a two-time European commissioner — has the first task of forming a government that must not collapse immediately after its formation. Here lies the first major challenge that Macron faces as his next government takes some form.

With allies, the Les Republicains party has 213 parliamentary seats — far below the 289-mark that is required for a majority in the 577-member National Assembly.

The New Popular Front (NFP) coalition, the largest faction, has vowed to oppose Barnier during the vote. It says the Macron administration must choose a prime minister from the Left-wing coalition, accusing the French president of ignoring the mandate of the people. This means Macron has no option but to rely on the Far-Right National Rally party to see his prime ministerial pick win the confidence of the legislature.

As an individual party, the National Rally is the single-largest party in France’s National Assembly, but its support would not come without conditions. It has already started to make political noises, with National Rally leader Jordan Bardella saying that the party would not block Barnier’s appointment, if the next prime minister does not address their concerns and meet demands on key issues such as the “cost of living, security, immigration,” the party would torpedo his government.

A budget and confidence motion by next month

With the stability of the government almost always under threat, Macron has to ensure that his administration gets the national budget for 2025 passed by next month. This is his second biggest challenge.

A failure to determine the national budget could trigger a no-confidence vote against Macron’s government. If French politics comes to that pass, both the National Rally and the NPF would be in a position to play kingmakers. This prospect assumes significance against the background that he dismissed the Left’s PM candidate, 37-year-old economist Lucie Castets, arguing that she would not be able to garner support for the vote of confidence.

This soured his relations further with the NPF, which denounced Macron’s actions with caustic remarks. Left leader Jean-Luc Melenchon said, “The election was stolen from the French people.” Another Left leader Mathilde Panot described Barnier’s appointment as an “unacceptable democratic coup”.

Can Macron stop Le Pen?

Having antagonised the Left, and banking on the support of the Right for the survival of his government, Macron is most likely giving a boost to the political career of Far-Right icon Marine Le Pen, who is expected to emerge as the kingmaker for future French governments. The emergence of Le Pen is Macron’s third big challenge going ahead.

Now 56, Le Pen has come a long way in French politics. He made it through to the second round of presidential elections in 2017 and 2022, and is already being considered a strong contender for the 2027 French presidential election — if Macron lasts his full tenure.

In his second term, 46-year-old Macron can’t contest the next election, about which his former prime minister Edouard Philippe claims that it may happen as early as next year. Philippe, a right-from-the-centre leader, this week announced that he was preparing for the next presidential election.

Having had a complicated equation with Macron, Horizons party leader Phillippe also made a startling claim that Macron would be forced to step down before the end of his mandate in 2027. Phillippe said he is, in fact, preparing his troops for a presidential election in 2025.

In an interview with a French weekly, Phillippe said, “I am preparing ideas that I will suggest to the French. What I will propose will be massive. The French will decide…People often say that when it comes to the presidential election, [candidates] must want it and nothing else. I believe in that.”

This puts Phillippe in a direct clash with Le Pen, who saw her graph rising sharply in the European Union election as the Far-Right coalition outperformed others and as Macron’s attempt to nip her rise in the bud with a snap poll failed miserably. Macron may leave the French political stage, in 2027 or 2025, with his biggest ideological rival, Le Pen, in the most formidable position on the national scene.