 "Russia currently controls around 20 per cent of Ukraine. This includes all of Luhansk and a big chunk of Donetsk in eastern Ukraine – which together comprise the Donbas. AP")
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has refused to hand over the Donbas to Russia.
This comes after reports that US President Donald Trump has proposed that Ukraine hand over the entirety of the region to Russia in exchange for a ceasefire. Trump has repeatedly said that Russia and Ukraine will do some sort of a ‘land swap’ to bring an end to the war.
The White House is currently attempting to get European leaders on board with this plan. However, such a deal looks like an opportunity for Russian President Vladimir Putin to declare victory. It remains unclear what Kyiv gets out of this deal.
But what do we know about the Donbas region in eastern Ukraine? What did Zelenskyy say?
Let’s take a closer look
What do we know about Donbas?
First, let’s take a look at the situation on the ground.
Russia currently controls around 20 per cent of Ukraine. This includes all of Luhansk and a big chunk of Donetsk in eastern Ukraine – which together comprise the Donbas – huge parts of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, tiny parts of the Kharkiv and northern Sumy and Crimea, which Russia invaded in 2014.
Donbas is the industrial and mining heartland of Ukraine. Known for its vast reserves of high quality coal, it comprises around a third of the country’s population. This region goes from Mariupol in the south of Ukraine to Russia’s northern border. Severodonetsk and Lysychansk are the two major cities in the Donbas.
Most people in the region speak Russian, however, they are not pro-Russian per se. Donbas is also part of the Ukraine’s ‘fortress belt’ - a system of four settlements including Kramatorsk and Sloviansk which has repelled Russian forces for over a decade. The region isn’t new to bloodshed either, seeing some of the deadlier battles of World War II.
It is also part of the belt that gives Russia access to the Black Sea – which Moscow sees as vital to its national security purposes. Which is why Russia prior to the invasion of Ukraine recognised both Luhansk and Donetsk as ‘independent nations’.
Experts say Ukraine simply can’t afford to give the Donbas to Russia. For one thing, the cities it controls from north to south keeps Russian forces in check. Handing it over would give Russia access to the Ukrainian heartland.
It would also “effectively mean the collapse of this entire defensive line,” Serhii Kuzan, the chairman of the Ukrainian Security and Cooperation Center, told The New York Times. The region being rich in minerals would also add to Russia’s coffers, which would only serve to embolden Moscow.
The way the war is going, Russia would take years to capture the rest of the Donbas.
“Russian rates of advance have picked up in the last month, but even though they are making ground, it would still take years (three or more) at current rates to capture all this territory,” Matthew Savill, director of military sciences at the RUSI thinktank, told Sky News.
Savill said it makes sense that Russia is attempting to take over the Donbas in negotiations. He said this would make life difficult for Ukraine in the future.
Military analyst Michael Clarke said the talks “certainly won’t create peace, but it might create a ceasefire in place if Putin decides to be flexible”. “So far he hasn’t shown any flexibility at all,” Clarke added. Putin could even wait until Trump leaves office to resume his invasion of Ukraine, he said.
What did Zelenskyy say?
Zelenskyy said Putin wants Ukraine to remove its soldiers from the 9,000 square kilometers of Dontesk it controls. “Putin wants us to leave Donbas. We will not leave Donbas. We cannot do this,” Zelenskyy said. “Everyone forgets the first part our territories are illegally occupied.”
Ukraine controls around 30 per cent of the Donetsk region with heavily fortified defensive lines and having strategic high ground. He has insisted yet again that Ukraine needs to be part of any settlement or peace talks for it to mean anything. “Any productive talks without [Ukraine] at the table will not work for us. They are possible, but they will not be accepted by us”.
Zelenskyy has said such a move will only inevitably set the scene for a future invasion by Putin.
“For the Russians, Donbas is a springboard for a future new offensive. If we leave Donbas of our own accord or under pressure, we will start a third war,” Zelenskyy said. He was referring to Russia’s invasion of Crimea in 2014.
“I am not going to surrender my country because I have no right to do so,” he added. “If we leave Donbas today, our fortifications, our terrain, the heights we control, we will clearly open a bridgehead for the preparation of a Russian offensive.”
He said the proposal was forwarded to Ukraine during the call between Trump and his envoy to Russia Steve Witkoff. “It didn’t sound like America wants us to leave”, Zelenskyy added. “I do not believe that Putin’s proposal is Trump’s proposal. I believe that Trump represents the United States of America. He acts as a mediator, he is in the middle – not on Russia’s side.”
Zelenskyy said Russia thus far had not given any security guarantees to Ukraine.
“I haven’t heard anything — not a single proposal that would guarantee that a new war won’t start tomorrow and that Putin won’t try to occupy at least Dnipro, Zaporizhzhia and Kharkiv,” the Ukrainian president added.
“The exchange of territories is a very complex issue that cannot be separated from security guarantees for Ukraine, for our sovereign state and our people,” Zelenskyy said. “No one except Europe is giving us security guarantees.”
Trump earlier this week and last week said Russia and Ukraine would ‘swap land’ to achieve piece.
“If it’s a fair deal, I will reveal it to the European Union leaders and the NATO leaders and also to President Zelenskyy,” Trump said. “I may say, ‘lots of luck, keep fighting,’ or I may say we can make a deal.”
With inputs from agencies