 "Trump’s tariffs and Russia penalty: How much does India depend on Moscow?")
With the August 1 trade deadline set by Washington now just hours away, United States President Donald Trump has formally confirmed that Indian exports to the US will face a 25 per cent tariff — with an unspecified “penalty” linked to India’s ties with Russia still under negotiation.
The announcement came in a series of pointed posts on Truth Social on Wednesday and Thursday.
Trump criticised what he described as India’s long-standing protectionist stance and accused New Delhi of buying “a vast majority of their military equipment from Russia” and becoming one of Moscow’s biggest energy buyers alongside China.
He wrote, “Also, they have always bought a vast majority of their military equipment from Russia, and are Russia’s largest buyer of ENERGY, along with China, at a time when everyone wants Russia to STOP THE KILLING IN UKRAINE — ALL THINGS NOT GOOD!” He followed up with a blunt declaration: “WE HAVE A MASSIVE TRADE DEFICIT WITH INDIA!!!”
A day later, he added an even harsher comment, “I don’t care what India does with Russia… they can take their dead economies down together, for all I care.”
While reaffirming the 25 per cent tariff, Trump stressed that discussions on “the additional penalty for support to Russia” were still underway.
When asked by reporters to explain the reasoning, Trump pointed to India’s inclusion in Brics, the economic bloc of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. “There’s also BRICS. You know they have BRICS, which is basically a group of countries that are anti The United States, and India is a member of that, if you can believe it,” he said.
“It’s an attack on the dollar, and we’re not going to let anybody attack the dollar. So it’s partially BRICS, and it’s partially the trade… this trade situation… it’s a deficit, we had a tremendous deficit.”
New Delhi has responded cautiously, stating that it is studying the implications of Washington’s move and that talks on a fair trade arrangement remain its priority.
How much of India’s oil comes from Russia?
India’s dependence on imported crude is deep-rooted — the country sources about 88 per cent of its oil from foreign suppliers. For decades, West Asia was the cornerstone of Indian energy security, but the Ukraine conflict triggered a major shift.
Western sanctions and bans on Russian oil created opportunities for New Delhi, which began purchasing heavily discounted Russian crude in 2022.
The transformation was dramatic. Before the war, Russian oil barely featured in India’s supply mix, accounting for just 2 per cent of imports.
By 2023, Russian crude shipments rose to about 1.66 million barrels a day, up from fewer than 700,000 in 2022. By May 2025, they reached 1.96 million barrels a day and spiked even higher in June to between 2 and 2.2 million barrels a day — the highest levels in two years.
By this year, Moscow was supplying more oil to India than all West Asian sources combined.
External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar has consistently defended these purchases, framing them as pragmatic and essential for India’s energy security.
In August 2024, he said, “India is a big oil consumer… We are a big oil importer because we don’t have oil. Now, it is not like there is a political strategy to buy oil… There is an oil strategy to buy oil… There is a market strategy.”
He also highlighted the hypocrisy he saw in Western criticism.
In December 2022, Jaishankar observed that Europe was buying far more Russian fossil fuels in the war’s early months than anyone else. “I think first we need to establish the facts very clearly. Between February 24 and November 17, the European Union has imported more fossil fuel from Russia than the next 10 countries combined,” he noted.
“The oil import in the European Union is like six times what India has imported.”
How much does India’s defence sector rely on Russia?
Beyond energy, Russia has been a cornerstone of India’s military capabilities for decades. From the Soviet era onwards, Moscow became the principal arms supplier, providing everything from fighter jets and submarines to missiles and tanks.
According to 2024 data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), 65 per cent of India’s weapons purchases over the past two decades — worth more than $60 billion — came from Russia.
Indian armed forces have repeatedly relied on Russian-origin systems in critical moments, including the Kargil War of 1999.
More recently, India deployed its Russian-made S-400 long-range air defence missile system during Operation Sindoor to deter attacks from Pakistan.
Although Russia’s share of India’s arms imports has declined to 36 per cent between 2017 and 2022, India remains dependent on Moscow for maintenance, spare parts and technical support for its vast inventory of legacy equipment.
The shift toward Western suppliers, particularly the United States, France, and Germany, has gained momentum, but Russian systems still form the backbone of India’s military.
Where does India-Russia trade stand?
The energy surge has transformed the economic relationship between India and Russia. Bilateral trade, which stood at just $10.1 billion before the pandemic, ballooned to $68.7 billion in FY 2024-25.
Imports of oil, coal, and fertilisers from Russia dominate the ledger, while Indian exports to Russia have also climbed as Moscow seeks alternative partners amid Western isolation.
Discounted Russian energy also shifted shipping patterns. India’s coal imports from Russia tripled in two years, and crude oil deliveries jumped tenfold in 2022 and doubled again the following year.
In parallel, infrastructure projects long on the drawing board have gained new urgency. The International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) — a multi-modal route linking Russia to India via Iran — has become a strategic priority for Moscow. Last month, the first shipment of coal was sent via this route.
Another key initiative is the Chennai–Vladivostok maritime corridor, a 10,300-kilometre sea route first proposed in 2019. Once operational, it could cut shipping times from 40 days to 24, offering a faster alternative to the Suez Canal.
Also Watch:
India’s position on the Ukraine conflict has been nuanced: it supports “constructive, solution-oriented, and practical engagement” and says it will back any “feasible and mutually acceptable solution” to restore peace.
At the same time, it has refused to stop buying Russian oil or break long-standing defence ties, insisting that national interests come first.
With inputs from agencies
 "Russian drones over Poland: Trump’s tepid reaction a wake-up call for Nato?")
 "As Russia pushes east, Ukraine faces mounting pressure to defend its heartland")
 "Why Mossad was not on board with Israel’s strike on Hamas in Qatar")
 "Turkey: Erdogan's police arrest opposition mayor Hasan Mutlu, dozens officials in corruption probe")
 "Russian drones over Poland: Trump’s tepid reaction a wake-up call for Nato?")
 "As Russia pushes east, Ukraine faces mounting pressure to defend its heartland")
 "Why Mossad was not on board with Israel’s strike on Hamas in Qatar")
 "Turkey: Erdogan's police arrest opposition mayor Hasan Mutlu, dozens officials in corruption probe")
