What’s the Black Sea deal that US brokered with Russia and Ukraine? Will it help bring peace?

After 1,126 days, are we seeing a sea change in the Russia-Ukraine war? On Tuesday (March 26), the White House said that Russia and Ukraine have agreed to a naval ceasefire in the Black Sea after three days of talks in Saudi Arabia.

In its remarks, the White House said that Kyiv and Moscow had agreed “to ensure safe navigation, eliminate the use of force, and prevent the use of commercial vessels for military purposes in the Black Sea”.

The United States said it would also look for ways to enforce a ban on strikes on energy infrastructure in the two countries.

The Black Sea deal is the next step in US President Donald Trump’s efforts to bring an end to the war. However, some note that the Trump team, in its effort to persuade the Kremlin to accept the naval ceasefire, offered more concessions.

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We take a closer look at what’s in the deal and whether it will bring peace to the two warring nations.

What’s in the Black Sea deal?

As per the different agreements that the US has signed with Russia and Ukraine respectively, the parties involved have agreed to safe navigation in the Black Sea, which had been a key focus of talks this week.

Speaking on the same, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told reporters, “We first agreed that there could be silence at sea and free navigation. The second point is to stop attacks on the energy system.”

An official further added to Financial Times that Kyiv would immediately halt “deep strikes” on Russian targets under the deal. He clarified that the timing had not been agreed. He added that “not only ships” but Ukrainian ports were also included in the maritime ceasefire. Odesa and other Black Sea ports have continued to be struck by Russian missiles and drones in recent days.

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Ukraine’s Defence Minister Rustem Umerov added that Kyiv maintains any movement by Russian military vessels outside of eastern part of the Black Sea will constitute violation of the spirit of this agreement. “In this case, Ukraine will have full right to exercise right to self-defence,” he said.

As per the new deal, the White House said it would “help restore access to the world market” for Russian agricultural and fertiliser exports. It’s important to note that while Washington hadn’t imposed sanctions on Russian agriculture, it had cut off access to the main international payment gateway, SWIFT .

However, Zelenskyy described this as a “weakening of positions”. The Guardian explains that this is because it appears to suggest that Washington would help Russia improve its economic position while the land and air war continued.

Another aspect of the Black Sea deal is that the US will remain committed to returning forcibly transferred Ukrainian children.

Notably, this deal is a return to the previous Black Sea agreement , signed in 2022, while allowed for the safe passage of commercial ships. Russia withdrew from it in the following year, complaining that its own food and fertiliser exports faced serious obstacles.

When does the Black Sea deal come into effect?

Here’s where the problems arise. Kyiv has said that it would comply with the agreement immediately with Zelenskyy adding that his country would hold up its end of the bargain but expressed scepticism about Russia’s intentions.

“There’s no faith in the Russians,” he said. “But I believe we will act constructively and do our part to implement the outcomes of the US-Ukraine meeting.”

However, Vladimir Putin said the new ceasefire deal would only come into place when international sanctions on Russia are lifted. The Kremlin demanded an end to restrictions on the Russian Agricultural Bank and other “financial institutions involved in international trade of food”, and only after they are reconnected to the SWIFT international payment system.

Moscow further added that Turkey, which has maintained ties with both sides, could monitor the situation on the Black Sea and that a West Asian nation could look at the energy agreement.

Speaking on the same, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov accused Western countries of trying to “contain” Russia like “Napoleon and Hitler”.

What’s the significance of the Black Sea deal?

Experts are not wholly convinced that this deal would bring about change in the ongoing war. Sky News’ security analyst Michael Clarke noted that the deal won’t do much to end the war. The deal is one the US “can boast about” — without it changing much on the ground for Ukraine, he said.

“The Russians will be quite happy about that because they’ll just keep going down more and more rabbit holes and they’ll present little gains for the US,” he explained.

Others also noted that the Black Sea deal was a win-win for Russia without having to give up much in return. As Nico Lange, of the Center for European Policy Analysis think tank, told The Telegraph: “Russia had already been defeated in the western Black Sea and Ukraine had fought successfully to open up the trade routes from Odesa. With today’s agreement, Russia gives almost nothing, but receives relief from some sanctions and new income for its war machine.”

Others also questioned the Black Sea deal, saying it gave too much to Russia, who in their opinion, is the aggressor.

Experts further stated that the deal may not be effective as any sanction relief on Russia would depend on Europe taking similar steps, which seem unlikely at the moment. As Kimberly Donovan, director of the Economic Statecraft Initiative at the Atlantic Council’s GeoEconomics Center told Atlantic Council, “If the terms that were agreed to are dependent on the lifting of sanctions, the United States needs to coordinate with its G7 coalition partners and seek their agreement on the collective way forward.”

It is left to be seen if the Black Sea deal comes into effect and if it works. As Ukraine’s Zelenskyy said, “It is too early to say that it will work, but these were the right meetings, the right decisions, the right steps.”

With inputs from agencies