What happens if Donald Trump pulls the US out of Nato

As the Iran war continues, US President Donald Trump has turned his attention to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (Nato).

Trump has spent the past few days slamming America’s European allies, including several members of Nato, for not joining in the war in Iran and helping reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

This comes as US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has said Washington may need to rethink its relationship with Nato. There are also reports that Nato Secretary General Mark Rutte will visit Washington next week.

But what happened? How have Nato countries reacted to the Iran war? What did Trump and Rubio say? What happens if Trump pulls the US out of Nato?

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How Nato countries have reacted to the Iran war

Since the beginning of the war on February 28, Nato nations such as France, Germany, Italy and the UK have shown little inclination to get involved in the fighting. Nor have they committed to sending warships to the Gulf. Earlier in March, the European nations issued a joint statement with Japan and Canada aimed at undertaking “appropriate efforts” to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez has emerged as a vocal critic of the war, labelling it “unjustifiable” and “dangerous” – leading to an irate Trump threatening to cut ties with Madrid. Spain earlier this week announced that it would not allow its airspace to be used by US military aircraft during the Iran war, with Deputy Prime Minister Carlos Cuerpo reiterating the government’s stance.

Italy’s Giorgia Meloni in March also slammed the Iran war as being “outside the scope of international law”.

“It is in this context of structural crisis in the international system, in which threats are becoming increasingly frightening and unilateral interventions outside the scope of international law are multiplying, that we must also place the American and Israeli intervention against the Iranian regime,” she told the Senate.

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Italian newspaper _Corriere della Sera_ earlier this week reported that the Italian government refused US bombers access to its Sigonella air base in Sicily.

The United Kingdom, while allowing US bombers to use its military bases, said this would be limited to defensive missions. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer on Wednesday said, “This is not our war. We will not be drawn into the conflict. That is not in our national interest.”

France has also refused to allow Israel to use its airspace to transport weapons from the US aimed at being used in the war with Iran. Trump slammed France as ‘very unhelpful’ for not allowing planes “loaded up with military supplies” that were “headed to Israel”.

Also, Polish Defence Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz on Tuesday said his country had “no plans” to send its Patriot air defence systems to West Asia. “Poland’s security is an absolute priority,” he wrote on X.

What Trump and Rubio said

Trump took to social media to chastise European nations and Nato members for refusing to join America in helping reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

“The countries of the world that do receive oil through the Hormuz Strait must take care of that passage,” Trump wrote. “They must cherish it. They must grab it and cherish it.”

“Go to the strait and just take it,” he said. “The hard part is done, so it should be easy.” “This is a true investment for your children and your grandchildren’s future,” he added.

Trump, in an interview with The Telegraph, also called Nato a “paper tiger”. He said exiting America from the alliance is now “beyond reconsideration”.

“Oh yes, I would say [it’s] beyond reconsideration. I was never swayed by Nato. I always knew they were a paper tiger, and Putin knows that too, by the way,” Trump said.

“Beyond not being there, it was actually hard to believe. And I didn’t do a big sale. I just said, ‘Hey’, you know, I didn’t insist too much. I just think it should be automatic.

“We’ve been there automatically, including Ukraine. Ukraine wasn’t our problem. It was a test, and we were there for them, and we would always have been there for them. They weren’t there for us.”

Trump also slammed Starmer and the UK.

“You don’t even have a navy. You’re too old and had aircraft carriers that didn’t work,” he said.

Rubio too complained about Nato’s attitude towards the Iran war. “We’re going to have to re-examine the value of Nato and that alliance for our country,” Rubio told Fox News earlier this week.

“If Nato is just about us defending Europe if they’re attacked, but them denying us basing rights when we need them, that’s not a very good arrangement. That’s a hard one to stay engaged in.”

What happens if Trump pulls the US out of Nato

Nato is famed for its Article 5 defence clause, which states that an attack on one is tantamount to an attack on all. It has been invoked only once in the history of the organisation – after the 9/11 attacks. However, this does not apply to an offensive action like the Iran war, which began with US and Israeli strikes.

Trump cannot unilaterally withdraw from Nato. In fact, the decision to do so is in the hands of Congress. This comes after America in 2023 passed a law prohibiting the president from “suspending, terminating, denouncing, or withdrawing” Nato membership without the Senate being involved or Congress passing a law.

Interestingly, Rubio, who was then a senator, was a co-sponsor of the legislation. Rubio at the time claimed that any such decision “should be rigorously debated and considered by the US Congress with the input of the American people”.

Experts say that the decision to do so could ultimately end up before the Supreme Court. They say that though the apex court has recently favoured Trump, the outcome here may well see the court side with Congress.

“A court may find a President’s claim of exclusive constitutional power to withdraw from a treaty to be unpersuasive given that the Constitution is silent about treaty withdrawal powers and that Article II makes treaty entry a power shared between the President and the Senate,” Karen Sokol, a legislative attorney for the Congressional Research Service, wrote in a report, according to Business Insider.

However, Sokol hedged her bets as to how the court would eventually rule.

“Ultimately, it is uncertain how a court would rule on the constitutional distribution of treaty withdrawal power based on its analysis of the Constitution’s text and structure, relevant Supreme Court precedent, and historical interbranch practice,” Sokol concluded.

Even if the courts find that Trump cannot legally withdraw from Nato, experts say he can make life extremely difficult for the organisation.

Ivo Daalder, who served as Barack Obama’s ambassador to Nato, told The Telegraph, “What the president can do – and there’s no question about this – he can withdraw all American troops, he can withdraw all Americans from the command structure, he can say Article 5, but don’t count on military capabilities, let alone nuclear, if you get attacked. All of that is legal.”

“What European leader is now going to believe that the United States is going to be there as long as Trump is president?” he said.
“How many more times does Donald Trump have to say that he doesn’t like Nato for you to believe that he might not be there if there’s an armed attack on Nato?”

Experts say the results could be absolutely devastating for Europe. An article in The Telegraph noted that the entire organisation has been built around America, which contributes around 60 per cent of its defence spending and has 1.3 million troops, by far the largest in Nato. The piece added that the grouping has worked as intended as a deterrent against Russia.

“For four years, it has assiduously avoided risking a direct confrontation with Nato powers, to the point of refusing (for the most part) to bomb the air bases and railway depots in Poland that supply Ukraine. But remove American conventional and nuclear power from the equation, and the risks of doing so suddenly look much more palatable,” the piece argued.

However, some predict that the long-term impact on America would be even worse.

A piece in NationalInterest.org contended that even though America is a superpower, it cannot go it alone. It argued that the lack of US presence in Europe, Africa or West Asia could see countries tilt towards Russia and China.

“If our allies and partners can’t count on us to be there, we will lose access to many military bases around the globe. That might not seem like a big deal since we have a fleet of warships and aircraft that can fly from the continental US to the Middle East and back,” the piece contended.

The article said that the United States would be reduced to a green-water navy rather than a blue-water force. It also noted that the lack of bases would thwart America’s ability to fly around the world. The article also warned that America could lose access to global markets and face sanctions from the new superpowers of China and Russia.

Mr Rutte goes to Washington

All of which makes sense as to why Rutte, who has emerged as the ‘Trump whisperer’ during his second term, is heading to Washington.

Despite these reports, members of Nato don’t seem outwardly concerned. A Nato spokeswoman told The Wall Street Journal the trip was long in the making.

One European official told CNN that these warnings were akin to ‘Groundhog Day’ and said that the alliance has been subjected to many similar remarks from Trump during his time in office. Some senior European diplomats have said that this is a ploy from Trump to pressure European nations into committing resources to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

However, sources told CNN that worries persist within some diplomatic circles because of Trump’s penchant to act on impulse. It is likely a fool’s errand to predict what Trump will do next. Even he may not know until he actually does it.

FAQs

1. Can Donald Trump actually pull the US out of Nato?

No, the US president cannot unilaterally withdraw from Nato. A 2023 law requires either Senate approval or an act of Congress before the US can leave the alliance.

2. What is Nato’s Article 5 and why is it important?

Article 5 is Nato’s collective defence clause, stating that an attack on one member is considered an attack on all. It underpins the alliance’s deterrence power and has been invoked only once, after the 9/11 attacks.

3. What would happen if the US left Nato?

Experts warn it could weaken Europe’s security, embolden adversaries like Russia, and reduce US global influence by limiting access to military bases and alliances worldwide.

With inputs from agencies