Can the Democrats replace Joe Biden as their nominee after debate debacle?

Joe Biden’s debate debacle last week has sent the Democrats into a tizzy. Since his performance at the first presidential debate where Donald Trump emerged as the big winner, pressure has been mounting on the 81-year-old Biden to step aside from the race over concerns about his mental health.

On Wednesday (July 3), amid calls for him to step aside, the US president stated categorically: “I’m the nominee of the Democratic Party. No one’s pushing me out. I’m not leaving.”

He also met with senior Democratic leaders at the White House for more than an hour in person and virtually in an attempt to convince them that he was the right candidate to go up against Trump in the November presidential elections. Following that meet, Democratic governors Tim Walz of Minnesota, Wes Moore of Maryland, and Kathy Hochul of New York addressed reporters outside the White House, underscoring that they stood behind the president.

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“We, like many Americans, are worried,” Walz of Minnesota said. “We are all looking for the path to win – all the governors agree with that. President Biden agrees with that. He has had our backs through COVID… the governors have his back. We’re working together just to make very, very clear that a path to victory in November is the No 1 priority and that’s the No 1 priority of the president… The feedback was good. The conversation was honest.”

“The president is our nominee. The president is our party leader,” added Moore of Maryland. He said Biden “was very clear that he’s in this to win it”.

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But even as the governors throw their weight behind the US president, there are worries about Biden’s cognitive abilities and his ability to win. There’s also concern over what a replacement to Biden will mean for the White House race.

Calls to oust Biden

A stuttering Biden at the first presidential debate in Atlanta led to panic among the Democrats that the US president is unfit for the White House race. Democratic Representative Lloyd Doggett of Texas was the first to voice his concern openly, saying: “I represent the heart of a congressional district once represented by Lyndon Johnson. Under very different circumstances, he made the painful decision to withdraw. President Biden should do the same.”

This call was echoed by Represenative Raúl Grijalva of Arizona. He told The New York Times that if Biden is the candidate, “I’m going to support him, but I think that this is an opportunity to look elsewhere.” He added that Biden must “shoulder the responsibility for keeping that seat — and part of that responsibility is to get out of this race.”

Even former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi told MSNBC that it’s a “legitimate question” to ask whether Biden’s poor performance at the debate was just “an episode” or “a condition.” She added, “Both candidates owe whatever test you want to put them to, in terms of their mental acuity and their health — both of them.”

A Democratic House member also told CBS News that Democratic House “frontline” representatives — vulnerable House Democrats who are facing tough re-election races — are circulating a letter asking the president to step aside as the presumptive nominee. The Democratic member, who is not one of the frontline members and supports Biden, said that “if there is a lot of people who sign up, I think the dam can break.”

Replacing Biden

But is it possible for Biden to drop out from the race? According to a DW report, switching out a candidate, especially a sitting president, this late in the race would be highly unusual. But it’s not impossible.

“To replace a candidate at this point, ideally, he would step back himself,” Filippo Trevisan, an associate professor at American University’s School of Communication in Washington told DW. “That would be simplest.”

However, it seems that Biden is in no mood to drop out and he has reiterated on multiple times that he is “in it to win it”.

In that case, if the Democrats want to replace Biden, they have a limited way to do so — and it’s a complicated and unlikely route. Democrats nominate candidates based on party rules, which state that a candidate must win a certain number of delegates in state primaries, which have already taken place. If the party wanted to get behind another candidate with Biden still in the race, they would have to win over Biden’s pledged delegates at the convention, who are obligated to back him by the rule of “good conscience,” according to ABC.

However, if Biden drops out voluntarily, the Democratic Party would technically have until its convention the week of August 19 to nominate a different candidate. Trevisan explained to DW that it would be “a free-for-all”. “They could vote for whomever they want.”

This is known as an open convention and delegates would pick according to their conscience. J Miles Coleman, an election analyst with the University of Virginia Center for Politics, told DW, “I would say (Kamala) Harris really has the right of first refusal.”

In case, Biden drops out of the race after the convention on grounds of its health, the Democratic National Committee would convene and decide on a candidate.

Why Democrats fear replacing Biden

Even as panic spreads through the Democratic Party about Biden’s chances and lists are prepared on who could replace him, the chances that the party actually replaces him is almost zero. Ezra Klein, a Times columnist and podcaster, who had earlier written a column — “Democrats Have a Better Option than Biden” — told the New Yorker that one of the primary reasons the party won’t replace Biden is that they fear that there isn’t a stronger option. Many in the Democratic Party don’t believe that Vice President Kamala Harris is a strong contender to Trump.

There’s also the issue of money. If a new candidate was brought in, the party would have to raise new donations, which, according to a CNN report, would be “a highway to losing.”

A new candidate also may send a message of confusion and worry to the voters, say political pundits. However, many voters also worry that Democrats have a better chance of keeping the White House if Biden isn’t the nominee.

Lastly, the other contenders in the reckoning such as California Governor Gavin Newsom , don’t have the numbers to go up against Trump. For instance, a March Rasmussen Reports survey of 912 likely voters found that former President Trump would lead by 17 points (51 per cent to 34) if Newsom were the 2024 Democratic nominee.

Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, who is considered another replacement for Biden, also doesn’t have the numbers. One poll revealed that Whitmer would garner 44 per cent of the vote, while Trump would get 46 per cent in a head-to-head matchup.

With inputs from agencies