If not Biden, who? Can Kamala Harris be Democratic Party's nominee to challenge Trump?

A stuttering performance by Joe Biden, the incumbent and US presidential hopeful, at the first debate with his challenger Donald Trump has created doubts among the Democrats about his ability to win the November election. Though some Democrats are worried about Biden’s election prospects, replacing him would not only be unprecedented but also immensely challenging.  

No party has tried to forcibly replace its presidential candidate in modern US history. In some cases, the nominees have dropped out in pre-two party dominance era but they weren’t replaced.

Why Biden may not be replaced

The Democrats choose their presidential candidate through a tenuous and long process of primaries, where pledged voters vote for registered contenders state after state. Usually, contenders withdraw midway if there emerges a clear favourite, else the process would be repeated in all 50 states.  

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This year, Biden didn’t face much difficulty in securing his second straight nomination. He won around 95 per cent of the nearly 4,000 delegates, who are pledged though not committed to backing Biden, in the primaries.

But now there’s a cloud of uncertainty around his abilities, with his debate with Trump leaving many Democratic Party leaders and supporters embarrassed. Quite a few of them have gone public, expressing their frustration on and off social media.  

There is no mechanism under the Democratic National Committee’s rules, Politico reports, to throw Biden off the party ticket in the presidential election.

But there is still a way to replace Biden

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There’s a window of opportunity for those wishing to see Biden out of the race. That window would open when the Democrats gather for the Democratic National Convention (DNC), likely in early August. There are two ways to do this — Biden decides to decline the party’s nomination on his own volition, and any other party leader throws it to open nomination on the floor of the DNC.

Here, the role of the pledged delegates becomes significant. Though most of them have come through the process of the Biden campaign and are pledged but not legally bound to support him at the DNC. However, practical politics would suggest they would lean towards Biden. For any other candidate to earn the nomination, they need a majority of the delegates to spurn Biden — improbable but not impossible.

If Biden goes out of the way, there could be n-number of leaders who can throw down the gauntlet. It would be an unpredictable process of choosing Biden’s replacement, unless he decides to endorse another candidate and his delegates swing in that direction.

So, who can replace Biden?

The US media is abuzz with possible names. Five of them are on the list of almost every credible observer of American politics.  

• Kamala Harris (Vice President) — A natural choice for having been Biden’s deputy but she would need to win a majority of delegates at the DNC, and her approval ratings of late have not been encouraging.

• Gavin Newsom (California Governor) — He has been building a national network of supporters and donors, and has a good relationship with Biden, defending his record post disastrous debate.

• Gretchen Whitmer (Michigan Governor) — A rising star and a potential rival of Harris in the Democratic Party with a strong track record on issues like gun safety, reproductive rights with abortion access and rights protections for LGBTQ+ Americans. She has also launched a national political group to bolster her public profile, positioning her as a formidable potential candidate.

• Pete Buttigieg (Transportation Secretary) — A former presidential candidate with national ambitions, who has been dealing with various crises — including the East Palestine train derailment, Southwest Airlines’ winter meltdown, the Baltimore Bridge collapse, and issues at Boeing — in his role as Biden’s Transportation Secretary.

• JB Pritzker (Illinois Governor) — A wealthy businessman who has been boosting his national profile, particularly on issues like abortion rights, and the one who can make this US presidential election a clash of billionaires.

What chances Harris has to replace Biden?

On her own, Harris may not earn the nomination if it comes to open process at the DNC. But an endorsement from Biden can swing the balance in her favour. Despite a dip in her approval ratings, Harris is an internationally acknowledged diplomatic voice from the US in the times when key regions are in the grips of wars and bilateral and multilateral tensions from Europe, West Asia to Asia Pacific.

But she would need a vice-presidential nominee to make a credible pair. Reports in the US media suggest that of the top potential candidates, only Newsom fits the bill. A Politico report, however, says that for a Harris-Newsom presidential election pair to be possible, one of them will have to change residency. Both are from California. Harris was the California governor from 2017 to 2021 and Newsom is the current governor of the most populous US state.

So, is Biden dropping out?

There is no indication that Biden is mulling this proposition. As the chatter emerged soon after the debate about his possible replacement, CNN reported quoting sources in the Biden campaign that he “will not drop out” from the US presidential race.

At a campaign speech on Friday, Biden while acknowledging the faltering performance at his debate with Trump said, “I know I’m not a young man. I don’t walk as easily as I used to. I don’t talk as smoothly as I used to. I don’t debate as well as I used to, but I know what I do know:  

“I know how to tell the truth. I know right from wrong. And I know how to do this job, I know how to get things done. And I know what millions of Americans know: When you get knocked down, you get back up.”

So, though the situation remains fluid, with all eyes on the next few months as the party navigates this challenging period, Biden appears steadfast in his commitment to continue his campaign. Does this boost Trump’s chances of a return to the office he once resisted to leave after the defeat? Well, you will have to wait for November, or January for a formal declaration of the results.