Debate debacle: What happens if Joe Biden drops out of the 2024 US presidential race?

The knives are out for President Joe Biden following his lackluster performance in the first 2024 presidential debate against former President Donald Trump. Biden’s struggle throughout the debate, which marked the earliest general election matchup in modern political history, has fuelled more doubts about his suitability for office.

Reports about the Democrats facing pressure to replace their presidential candidate are plenty.

But what would happen if Biden drops out from the race ahead of the elections?

Concerns Around Biden’s Age

At 81 years old, Biden has faced persistent scrutiny regarding his capacity to fulfill the responsibilities of the presidency.

Democrats had pinned their hopes on a strong showing by Biden to quell doubts about his age and fitness for office. Instead, his faltering performance deepened existing concerns. It kindled more discussions among party members, Democrat voters, donors, and undecided voters about his stamina and mental fortitude.

There is some support for replacing Biden now. However, it will be rather difficult to force him out from the top of the ticket.

Can Biden be forced out?

The Democratic Party’s rules make it exceedingly difficult to replace a nominee without their consent. Overturning the results of the primaries, where Biden secured almost 99 per cent of delegates, would be a controversial and unprecedented move. The party’s charter includes provisions for replacing a nominee in cases of death, resignation, or incapacitation, but not for pushing someone out forcefully

Ultimately, the decision rests with the DNC Chair, currently Jaime Harrison, a staunch Biden ally. Harrison’s position and loyalty to Biden suggest that any effort to replace him would face considerable resistance from the party’s leadership.

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The national party, too, has shown unwavering support for Biden’s re-election, and there is no indication of any significant movement to oust him from the top of the ticket.

Can Biden withdraw?

Thus, although forcing Biden out is not impossible, it is also not very plausible at the moment. What is plausible- but still rather unlikely- is that he voluntarily withdraws.

The rules allow Biden to withdraw. But there is very little chance of it happening right now. In the past, even during the bumpy patched during his campaign, Biden had binned talk of withdrawing. His campaign has insisted that he was the only one who managed to defeat Donald Trump, and exuded confidence that he would do it again.

Still, if, over time, pressure mounts high, Biden may succumb and withdraw his candidature.

That would open a whole new proverbial can of worms.

The process of selecting a new nominee

Should Biden decide to withdraw, the process to nominate a new Democratic candidate would be complex and fraught with challenges.

• Before or during the national convention: If Biden were to exit after most primaries or during the convention, the Democratic Party’s delegates would be tasked with selecting a new nominee.The Democratic Party set a deadline of June 22 for states to select the more than 3,900 delegates allocated as part of the primary process. These delegates, almost all currently pledged to Biden, would need to convene and vote on a new nominee if Biden were to withdraw. This process would shine a spotlight on the individual delegates and their allegiances, potentially leading to a contentious and highly publicised battle for the nomination, according to CNN.
• After the convention: If Biden were to withdraw after the convention, the chair of the Democratic National Committee (DNC) can call a special meeting of the full DNC, which consists of about 500 members.In theory, a majority vote of the members present is needed to select new presidential and vice-presidential nominees. However, the actual process is likely to be complex, involving behind-the-scenes politics and public pressure campaigns, according to NBC.

Political historian Leah Wright Rigueur told BBC News, “I think that if he were to get replaced, part of the negotiation for him stepping down would be that he would get the final say in who replaces him.” That is another complication one must consider.

Past instances to draw from

There are just a couple of incidents in American political history that are similar to the current situation with Biden’s nomination.

Facing significant opposition from within his party and the broader public due to the Vietnam War, President Lyndon B. Johnson announced on March 31, 1968, that he would not seek re-election. This decision opened the door for other Democratic candidates, including Vice President Hubert Humphrey, who eventually secured the nomination.

If Biden followed this route, he would finish the current term, and sit the presidential race out. That would still not spare the potentially gruelling and chaotic search for the replacement candidate within his party.

Senator Thomas Eagleton was initially chosen as George McGovern’s running mate in the 1972 election. However, after revelations about his mental health history, he had to drop out. Eagleton was replaced by Sargent Shriver. This is another instance of mounting external pressure forcing a candidate to withdraw.

In 1992, Ross Perot decided to drop out and later re-enter as an independent. Biden dropping out from the Democrat ballot and running as an independent is an unlikely scenario. If it does come to pass, it would be disastrous for the Democratic party, who would likely see a division in their voter base.

The political fallout

The potential for a contentious and highly public battle over the nomination could significantly impact the Democratic Party’s image and electoral prospects. The spectacle of internal conflict and indecision would provide ample ammunition for Trump and the Republican Party to criticise Democratic leadership. The potential benefits of replacing Biden with a more dynamic candidate must be weighed against the risks of appearing divided and disorganised.

Reports have already indicated that after the debate, many undecided voters and “double haters” (voters who dislike both Biden and Trump) are leaning towards Trump. While changing the candidate might attract some of these voters back, the potential for a protracted and messy nomination battle could offset any gains.

Any benefit of replacing Biden might only materialise when a much more dynamic candidate is brought to the fore with near unanimous approval.

In a nutshell

The aftermath of President Biden’s debate performance has reportedly sparked significant debate within the Democratic Party about his future as their nominee. The process of replacing a sitting president as the party’s candidate is complex, not to mention risky. While the potential benefits of a new, more dynamic candidate are clear, the dangers of appearing divided and indecisive are equally significant.