 "Can Ukraine survive the war without US military aid?")
Donald Trump is unpredictable and his unpredictability came to the fore on Monday (March 3) when he hit pause on all US military aid to Ukraine, just days after his showdown with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the White House.
A White House official said, “The president has been clear that he is focused on peace. We need our partners to be committed to that goal as well.
“We are pausing and reviewing our aid to ensure that it is contributing to a solution,” the official added.
The extraordinary measure comes in the fourth year of the Russia-Ukraine war and a few days after the astonishing clash between the two at the Oval Office on Friday along with US Vice President JD Vance.
Moreover, US President Donald Trump on Monday said he would “not put up” much longer with Zelenskyy, and said the Ukrainian leader should be “more appreciative” of US support. He added that Zelenskyy “won’t be around very long” without a ceasefire deal with Moscow.
Trump’s move has taken everyone aback, with many asking if Ukraine can survive the war without America’s aid. We try to analyse and get you an answer.
Is Trump punishing Zelenskyy?
On Monday, President Trump temporarily suspended the delivery of all US military aid to Ukraine , with a senior White House official saying the order takes effect immediately. Another official said the pause will apply to all military equipment not yet inside Ukraine. According to a Bloomberg report, this means that all US military equipment not currently in Ukraine would be paused, including weapons in transit and at depots in Poland.
An official also told CNN that the pause on aid is in response to what the US president views as Zelenskyy’s bad behaviour last week. The official added that the pause could be lifted if the Ukrainian president demonstrated a new commitment to negotiations to end the war in Ukraine.
Earlier on Monday, Trump slammed his Ukrainian counterpart when he suggested that the end of the war was “still very, very far away”. Zelenskyy had suggested it would take time to come to an agreement to end the war as he tried to offer a positive take on the US-Ukraine relationship in the aftermath of last week’s White House meeting.
“This is the worst statement that could have been made by Zelenskyy, and America will not put up with it for much longer!” Trump said in a post on his Truth Social platform.
“It is what I was saying, this guy doesn’t want there to be peace as long as he has America’s backing,” the president added.
How has US, world reacted to pause on aid?
Trump’s pause on US aid to Ukraine has been met with astonishment and shock. The Democrats and even some Republicans have said that Trump’s move is ill-advised. Republican Senator Susan Collins, representing Maine, slammed the pause, saying the US needed to back its ally.
“This is a critical time for Ukraine. And I managed the Ukraine supplemental last year that provided additional help to Ukraine, and I do not think we should be pausing our efforts. It’s the Ukrainians who are shedding blood,” the Maine Republican said.
“Unfortunately, we’ve seen this movie before, and I remain convinced that it’s not only in Ukraine’s interest but our interest to back Ukraine because Putin is not going to stop there,” she said.
Democratic Representative Brendan Boyle of Pennsylvania, who is co-chair of the Congressional EU Caucus, said the decision “is reckless, indefensible, and a direct threat to our national security.”
Meanwhile, Michael Carpenter, who was a former director of the US National Security Council under President Joe Biden, said the announcement was “just astonishing”. “In this war, there is a very clear aggressor and a victim. And Russia is the aggressor and Ukraine is the victim and we are acting as if it were the reverse.
“So to be pausing assistance which is essentially defensive assistance to allow Ukrainians to defend their homeland from a blatant and brazen ugly brutal attack from Russia, it’s astonishing that the United States would be doing this,” he told the BBC.
How much military aid has US given Ukraine?
But just how much aid does US supply to Ukraine? Since the beginning of the war in February 2022, the US has provided, according to the Department of Defence, a whopping $182.8 billion. According to the DoD, this figure looks at all spending on Operation Atlantic Resolve — a response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. This also covers US military training in Europe and the replenishment of US defence stocks.
However, according to the Kiel Institute, which is a German-based think tank tracking support going into Ukraine, Washington has spent $119.7 billion on aid between January 2022 and December 2024.
Further analysis of the aid shows that much of the aid has gone toward providing weapons systems, training, and intelligence that Ukrainian commanders need to defend against Russia, which has one of the world’s most powerful militaries.
When it comes to weaponry, Ukraine is provided by the US with Javelin anti-armour systems, Stinger anti-aircraft systems, and ATACMS missiles that have a range of about 300 km. Washington has also sent the HIMARS system to Kyiv for the war. When it comes to aerial warfare, in August 2023, the US gave permission for F-16 s to be sent to Ukraine. Since then, Western nations have been training Ukrainian pilots to fly them.
Besides the weaponry, the US also provided training and intelligence data to Ukraine until now. As the CSIS notes in one report that although such support cannot be counted in the same way that equipment can, it has been critical in building Ukraine’s military capabilities.
What would Trump’s pause mean for Ukraine?
Many believe, including Ukrainian President Zelenskyy, that US suspending aid would hurt them on the battlefield. Earlier in February, Zelenskyy had said, “[W]e will have low chance – low chance to survive without the support of the United States.”
Lieutenant-General Ihor Romanenko, former first deputy of the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, also painted a bleak picture for Ukraine if it didn’t receive US military aid. He was quoted as saying, “Without American military aid, we will last six months. Europe can’t possibly replace American aid.”
Nikolai Mitrokhin, a researcher at the University of Bremen (Germany), also quoted by Al Jazeera said that current US supplies if used sparingly, could not last beyond “mid-summer” or “autumn.”
Other experts also agree with this assessment. As one US government official said, “The bottom line is that no, Ukraine cannot survive without US support.” He added that while Europeans have done a lot, certain US technologies such as NASAMs, Patriots, HIMARS, have been critical to the battle and Europe can’t bridge that gap.
Andrea Kendall-Taylor, a former deputy US national intelligence officer for Russia and Eurasia, told the Washington Post that a US abandonment of Ukraine would also have severe morale implications for both Ukrainians and Europeans. She fears that some European nations could cut support for Ukraine if the war looks like a lost cause without US support, and that Ukraine could see its manpower shortfall grow as fewer people sign up for what looks like a hopeless fight.
Can Europe step up for Ukraine?
The simple answer is yes, Europe can, but not to the extent Washington has. Europe has stepped up — in the London Summit held on Sunday, UK’s Keir Starmer pitched for the development of the ‘ coalition of the willing ’ and even vowed more aid to Kyiv.
However, experts note it’s not enough. Andriy Zolotarev, director of the Third Sector Analytical Center, a Kyiv-based think tank, told Voice of America that US military aid is uniquely important to Ukraine’s defence. “In particular, the US has huge stockpiles of weapons, they are a supplier of critically important intelligence information,” he said. “All the European countries taken together do not have satellite groupings like the United States. In addition, the US has extremely important and truly irreplaceable types of weapons for Ukraine — Patriot [missile defence] systems, ATACMS [long-range guided missiles], HIMARS [multiple launch rocket systems], as well as spare parts for armoured vehicles and artillery systems, and much more. This cannot be discounted in any way.”
He added that while Europe produces advanced weapons and other military equipment, the European Union together with Great Britain can only partially compensate for what Ukraine would lose if the US stopped providing assistance.
Only time will tell if Zelenskyy can repair his ties with Trump and convince the US president to change his mind on military aid to Ukraine. If US Vice President JD Vance is to be believed then a rapprochement is possible. Speaking to Fox News, he said: “Of course, the door is open.”
“So long as Zelenskyy is willing to seriously talk peace. You can’t come into the Oval Office or anywhere else and refuse to even discuss the details of a peace deal,” said Vance, adding: “When they’re willing to talk peace, I think President Trump will be the first person to pick up the phone.”
With inputs from agencies
 "Russian drones over Poland: Trump’s tepid reaction a wake-up call for Nato?")
 "As Russia pushes east, Ukraine faces mounting pressure to defend its heartland")
 "Why Mossad was not on board with Israel’s strike on Hamas in Qatar")
 "Turkey: Erdogan's police arrest opposition mayor Hasan Mutlu, dozens officials in corruption probe")
 "Russian drones over Poland: Trump’s tepid reaction a wake-up call for Nato?")
 "As Russia pushes east, Ukraine faces mounting pressure to defend its heartland")
 "Why Mossad was not on board with Israel’s strike on Hamas in Qatar")
 "Turkey: Erdogan's police arrest opposition mayor Hasan Mutlu, dozens officials in corruption probe")
