Can Ukraine survive a fourth year of war with Russia?

As Ukraine enters the fourth year of its full-scale war with Russia, the challenges it faces are greater than ever.

With shifting global alliances, an uncertain future for military aid, and a growing strain on domestic arms production, the question remains: can Ukraine endure another year of war?

The Ukraine-US relationship

Ukraine’s struggle is compounded by the shifting stance of its historically strongest ally, the United States. While Washington has been instrumental in supporting Kyiv throughout the conflict, the return of Donald Trump to the White House has introduced new uncertainties.

Trump has openly criticised Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, calling him an unpopular “dictator” and suggesting that Ukraine should seek a quick peace deal or risk losing everything. In response, Zelenskyy dismissed Trump’s perspective as being shaped by a “disinformation bubble.”

Further complicating matters, the Trump administration has engaged in direct talks with Russia in Saudi Arabia, excluding Ukraine and European allies.

This marks a significant shift in US policy, with indications that Washington is willing to make concessions to Moscow, including ruling out Nato membership for Ukraine and allowing Russia to retain control over occupied territories.

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Amid these developments, Zelenskyy has been working tirelessly to rally European support, holding multiple calls with European leaders and urging them to strengthen their own military capabilities.

European leaders, meanwhile, are expected to visit Kyiv to mark the war’s anniversary and show solidarity with Ukraine.

Ongoing battlefield struggles

On the battlefield, Ukraine faces a formidable challenge. Russian forces maintain numerical superiority, and concerns over future US military aid weigh heavily on Ukrainian troops.

European allies have expressed willingness to step up support, with some nations considering stationing troops in Ukraine as a deterrent against further Russian aggression. However, the absence of direct US military involvement and uncertain future support complicates Ukraine’s defence strategy.

Meanwhile, military losses on both sides remain immense. Western intelligence estimates suggest that hundreds of thousands of soldiers have been killed or wounded.

Civilians in Ukraine continue to suffer, with thousands dead and over six million displaced abroad. The war has left deep scars on Ukrainian society, with funeral processions now a common sight in both cities and remote villages.

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Ukraine’s struggle with arms production

Ukraine has made significant strides in boosting its domestic weapons production, with locally manufactured arms now making up 40 per cent of its arsenal compared to just 10 per cent at the start of the war. However, despite this progress, Ukraine’s defence industry faces major hurdles.

One of the most pressing issues is the quality of domestically produced munitions. Ukrainian soldiers on the frontlines have reported that some locally made mortar shells are unreliable and even dangerous to use.

Defective shells have already led to multiple incidents, forcing the Ukrainian government to recall tens of thousands of them. Additionally, Ukraine does not produce its own gunpowder, further complicating its ability to maintain a stable arms supply, reported Kyiv Independent.

The country’s defence industry also relies heavily on Western components. While major arms manufacturers like Germany’s Rheinmetall have announced plans to set up production facilities in Ukraine, their operational timelines stretch into 2026, leaving Ukraine vulnerable in the short term.

The European Union and the United States have supplied Ukraine with significant military aid, but their ability to maintain these deliveries is increasingly uncertain.

Will Ukraine survive?

While Ukraine fights for survival on the battlefield, it is also engaged in political battles. Trump has pressured Ukraine to hold a wartime election, echoing Russian claims that Zelenskyy’s presidency is no longer legitimate.

Zelenskyy has countered this by saying that he is willing to step down if it guarantees peace and secures Ukraine’s Nato membership. However, under martial law, elections are currently not possible.

The fate of future military assistance from the West remains one of Ukraine’s biggest concerns. The European Union has shown more consistency in supporting Ukraine than the US, but its military-industrial capacity is limited compared to Washington.

Meanwhile, Russia continues to ramp up its arms production, outpacing Ukraine and its allies in key areas such as artillery shells and missiles.

Ukraine’s ability to continue defending itself hinges on securing sustained foreign aid. While European nations have pledged support , they may struggle to replace US military assistance.

The Trump administration has floated the idea of tying future US aid to economic concessions, including access to Ukraine’s mineral wealth. Some reports suggest that US negotiators even hinted at limiting Ukraine’s access to Elon Musk’s Starlink satellite system to pressure Kyiv into accepting a deal.

Despite these challenges, Ukraine remains resilient. Zelenskyy and his administration continue to push for greater European engagement and long-term security guarantees.

Some European nations, including France, the UK, and Poland, have expressed willingness to send more military assistance and possibly station troops in Ukraine as a deterrent against further Russian aggression.

The question remains: Can Ukraine survive another year of war?

With inputs from agencies