 "Tamil Nadu CM Stalin bats for more kids for more Lok Sabha say. How are the two linked?")
The chief ministers of Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu have sparked a conversation about population control after batting for people in their respective states to have more children.
While Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister N Chandrababu Naidu’s remarks come in the context of the state’s ageing population, his Tamil Nadu counterpart is worried about the impending delimitation exercise that could put southern states at a disadvantage in the Lok Sabha.
What has the duo said? What is a delimitation exercise and how is a state’s seat share in the Lok Sabha decided? Let’s take a closer look.
AP, TN CMs moot more population
Last weekend, Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister Naidu voiced concerns over the “demographic crisis” that the state could witness in the future.
Flagging the ageing population in southern states, he called on people in his state to have more children. Naidu also said his government is mulling to bring legislation mandating only those with more than two children eligible to contest local body polls.
“We are thinking of providing incentives to families with more children, encouraging couples to have more children,” Naidu reportedly said on Saturday (October 19).
He urged people to have more children. “The growth rate in the state should increase. Everyone should think about this, and families should aim to have at least two or more children. In the past, I advocated for population control. The need at that time was different. But now we need to increase the birth rate for the future,” the Andhra CM was quoted as saying by Deccan Herald (DH).
He mentioned the examples of Japan, China and Europe to make his case for the need to have more children. “We have a demographic advantage only till 2047. After 2047, there will be more elderly people than young in Andhra Pradesh. It is already happening in Japan, China, and many countries in Europe,” the chief minister said, as per Indian Express.
The median age of southern states is higher than many northern states, as per the 2011 census. Kerala’s median age was 31.9 years in 2011, followed by Tamil Nadu (29.9), Andhra Pradesh (27.6), Karnataka (27.4) and Telangana (26.7). In northern states like Uttar Pradesh and Bihar which are among the top populous states in the country, the median age was 21.5 years and 19.9 years, respectively.
#BreakingNews | 'Have At Least Two Or More Children': Andhra CM Naidu Flags State’s Ageing Population | Tamil Nadu's Stalin In Favor @swastikadas95 @nimumurali @_pallavighosh with more details
— News18 (@CNNnews18) October 21, 2024
Avantika Singh | #AndhraPradesh #CMNaidu pic.twitter.com/GPWuHo6BXT
On Monday, Tamil Nadu Chief Minister MK Stalin made similar comments at a state-funded mass wedding event, where 31 couples tied the knot in his presence.
The DMK president MK Stalin said that traditionally elders in the state blessed married couples with “16 kinds of wealth”. As per NDTV, the benediction, translated from Tamil, says: “Acquire 16 kinds of wealth and lead a prosperous life”.
“That blessing does not mean you should have 16 children…but now a situation has arisen where people think they may have to, literally, raise 16 children and not a small and prosperous family,” he reportedly said.
He was alluding to the forthcoming delimitation process, which will be preceded by the census.
“The Parliament delimitation process may encourage the couples to have many children and give up thoughts of a small family. But whatever be the outcome, provide Tamil names to your children,” the CM said.
What’s delimitation?
Delimitation is the act of drawing boundaries of constituencies and fixing the number of seats in each state for the Lok Sabha and Legislative Assemblies. According to the Election Commission, this process is based on the population in the latest census.
The exercise also entails ascertaining the number of seats to be reserved for Scheduled Castes (SC) and Scheduled Tribes (ST).
Article 82 of the Constitution states that Lok Sabha seats to each state should be readjusted after every Census.
According to Article 81 of the Constitution, the maximum number of members in the Lok Sabha can be 550, of which 530 will be from states and 20 from Union Territories. It also states that “the ratio between (the number of seats) and the population of the state is, so far as practicable, the same for all states”.
Under these provisions, a ‘Delimitation Commission’ is to be set up once every 10 years. The delimitation exercise was carried out after the 1951, 1961 and 1971 Census.
In 1976, the number of Lok Sabha seats was frozen to 543 through the 42nd Amendment to the Constitution, and delimitation was deferred by 25 years until the 2001 Census. This was done by the then Indira Gandhi-led Congress government to encourage population control measures so that states with higher populations do not have more seats in the Lok Sabha.
Under the Atal Bihari Vajpayee-led BJP government in 2002, delimitation was put off for another 25 years. While the boundaries of territorial constituencies were redrawn to make up for changes in population as per the 2001 Census, the number of Lok Sabha seats was unchanged, reported Indian Express.
The 84th Amendment stated the allocation of seats would be frozen until “the relevant figures for the first Census taken after the year 2026 have been published”.
As per The Hindu report, the next delimitation should have been carried out after the 2031 census as it would have been the first census after 2026. However, the 2021 Census was delayed due to the COVID-19 pandemic and with 2026 approaching, talks about the delimitation exercise have surfaced again.
Concerns of southern states
If a delimitation exercise happens in 2026, it would in all probability aim to allocate seats so each parliamentary constituency has about the same population. This would mean a rise in the number of seats for states with high populations.
There are two scenarios that may occur. As per NDTV, after delimitation, the total number of Lok Sabha seats could increase to 753, with the northern states of Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan benefitting the most.
In Uttar Pradesh, the Lok Sabha seats could jump from 80 to 128. Bihar could see a rise from 40 to 70 seats, MP from 29 to 47 and Rajasthan from 25 to 44.
On the other hand, southern states, which effectively implemented population control measures, could be at a disadvantage. Karnataka is likely to see a rise in Lok Sabha seats from 28 to just 36, Telangana from 17 to 20, Andhra Pradesh from 25 to 28 and Tamil Nadu from 39 to 41.
According to The Hindu, if the total Lok Sabha seats are kept unchanged at 543 and allocated among states on the basis of the population in 2026, the southern states and the smaller northern states like Punjab, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand will lose out on political representation the lower house.
This has fanned concerns that southern states that controlled population growth will be “penalised” after the delimitation.
Senior Congress leader Jairam Ramesh has said southern states should not be penalised for their success in family planning.
“South Indian states were pioneers in family planning. The first to reach replacement levels of fertility was Kerala in 1988, followed by Tamil Nadu in 1993, Andhra Pradesh in 2001, and Karnataka in 2005. However, there have been concerns voiced for quite some time now that these successes could end up reducing the political representation of these states in Parliament,” he wrote on X.
“That is why, in 2001, the Vajpayee government amended the Constitution (Article 82) to make the readjustments in the Lok Sabha dependent on the publication of the first Census taken after the year 2026,” he said.
South Indian states were pioneers in family planning. First to reach replacement levels of fertility was Kerala in 1988, followed by Tamil Nadu in 1993, Andhra Pradesh in 2001 and Karnataka in 2005.
— Jairam Ramesh (@Jairam_Ramesh) October 21, 2024
However, there have been concerns voiced for quite some time now that these…
“Normally, the first Census after 2026 would have meant the census of 2031. But the entire decennial Census schedule has been disrupted and even the Census scheduled for 2021 has not been conducted,” the Congress leader said on Monday.
“We now keep hearing that the long-delayed census will start soon. Will this be used for allocation of seats in the Lok Sabha? There can be no doubt that success should not be penalised,” Ramesh added.
With inputs from agencies
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