France, China among countries seeing fewer births: Is world population declining?

France’s birth rates dipped again in 2023, the country’s National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (INSEE) said on Tuesday (16 January). Around 678,000 babies were born in the European country last year, the lowest since 1946, reported Radio France Internationale (RFI).

However, France is not alone. China’s birth rate is also down to 6.39 per 1,000 people. The Asian giant’s population plunged for a second consecutive year in 2023. Besides China, South Korea and Japan are also facing their own population crisis.

Let’s take a closer look.

France

France has been witnessing a decline in births since 2010. The fall in birth rate has accelerated, with the annual drop of 1.6 per cent on average reported in 2014-2019 reaching 6.6 per cent last year, RFI reported citing INSEE.

Despite this, France’s population grew at a rate of 0.3 per cent – the same as in 2022, primarily due to fewer deaths. The country had a population of 68.4 million at the beginning of 2024.

France’s population has increased for the last 20 years, owing to several factors such as migratory movements and the rise in life expectancy, as per the country’s statistics office.

“What’s exceptional this time is the extremely low number of births, the lowest since the post-war period, when France had nearly 30 million fewer people than now,” INSEE noted.

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According to Le Monde, the total fertility rate (TFR), reported at 1.68 children per woman in 2023, has also fallen. France is still positioned better within the European Union, where the average fertility rate stood at 1.53 live births per woman in 2021, as per the latest available data.

Other European countries

Some of the world’s rapidly falling populations are located in Europe and East Asia. As per an Insider Monkey report, Ukraine, Romania, Belarus and Moldova are among the top 10 countries in the world with the biggest population decline.

The European Union is predicted to see a significant population decline by 2100. As per Eurostat estimates, the population could drop by 6 per cent in the bloc by the end of the century.

The EU’s statistics office predicts the population will shrink to 420 million in 2100, after reaching its peak at 453 million people in 2026, reported Euronews.

Some member states of the bloc are expected to report a surge in population by 2100, partly due to migration. These include Belgium, Czech Republic, Denmark, Ireland, France, Cyprus, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Austria, Sweden and Iceland, reported Euronews.

China and other Asian nations

China’s population stood at 1.409 billion by the end of last year, a 2.08 million decrease from 2022, as per BBC. The Asian country has been witnessing falling birth rates for decades.

China’s demographic woes are in line with other East Asian nations like Japan and South Korea. Experts attribute the spike in the decline in new births in China to the COVID-19 pandemic and the country’s economic issues and rising costs.

“It’s not a surprise. They’ve got one of the lowest fertility rates in the world so this is just what happens - the population stops growing and starts to decline,” Professor Stuart Gietl-Basten, a population policy expert at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, told BBC.

“It’s kind of locked in now… this is just the next year in this new era of population stagnation or decline for China.”

India overtook China as the world’s most populous nation last year, according to estimates by the United Nations.

South Korea has the world’s lowest birth rate. It is expected to reduce further in the coming years, with Statistics Korea predicting a drop from 0.78 in 2022 to 0.65 in 2025, reports CNN.

The country’s total population is likely to plunge from 51.75 million in 2024 to 36.22 million, a level not seen since 1977, according to Statistics Korea.

Japan is also staring at a population crisis. Its birth rate declined for the seventh consecutive year in 2022, standing at 6.3 per 1,000 people, reported Reuters.

The fertility rate in Japan was 1.2565 in 2022, far below the rate of 2.07 considered necessary to maintain a stable population.

While European and other industrialised nations are also facing ageing populations, the impact is softened by migration, as per CNN. However, these Asian nations have stayed away from adopting mass immigration to resolve their demographic crisis, worsening the situation further.

South Korea, Japan and China have taken various measures, including offering financial incentives, to encourage people to have children but have not been successful so far.

Is global population declining?

No.

As per UN estimates, the world population is likely to surge by around 8.5 billion in 2030, 9.7 billion in 2050, and 10.9 billion in 2100. While the population continues to rise, the rate of its annual growth has decreased to below 1 percent.

By 2050, Nigeria could become the world’s third most populous nation, followed by the United States, Pakistan, Indonesia, Brazil, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia and Bangladesh.

The global population will peak at about 10.4 billion people in the 2080s and this level will continue until 2100, as per Al Jazeera. 

With inputs from agencies