 "5,580 warheads and counting… The nuclear weapons Russia's Vladimir Putin has at his disposal")
Will the Russia-Ukraine war go nuclear? That’s the question many are asking after Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday (November 19) approved changes to the country’s nuclear doctrine, lowering the bar further for deploying tactical and more powerful strategic atomic weapons.
Notably, the decree came on the same day that Ukraine fired US-supplied Army Tactical Missile System ( ATACMS ) missiles into Russia for the first time in the war.
The situation has once again put the focus on Russia’s nuclear arsenal — how many nuclear warheads does Moscow possess and who controls them? Here’s what we know.
What has Putin changed with Russia’s nuclear policy?
On Tuesday, as Ukraine fired US-supplied long-range missiles at Russia, President Vladimir Putin announced a change in the country’s nuclear policy . As per the revised guidelines, the Kremlin could use nuclear weapons in response to an attack on Russian soil by Kyiv using conventional Western weapons.
As Reuters reported, the policy states that any aggression against Russia by a non-nuclear state that is carried out with the participation or support of a nuclear state will be considered a joint attack. It also additional scenarios under which Moscow would consider a nuclear response, including if it had reliable information about the launch of a massive cross-border air attack on Russia using planes, missiles and drones.
It has also placed its neighbouring country, Belarus , under its nuclear umbrella — meaning Moscow can use nuclear weapons in case of a conventional attack against Putin’s friendly country.
How many nuclear weapons does Russia have?
Russia’s change in its nuclear doctrine has also shone a light on the country’s nuclear arsenal. Russia, which inherited the Soviet Union’s nuclear weapons, has the world’s biggest store of nuclear warheads.
As of this year, the Federation of American Scientists (FAS) estimates that Moscow possesses 5,580 nuclear warheads. Of those about 1,200 are retired but largely intact and around 4,380 are stockpiled for operational forces.
The FAS added that of the stockpiled warheads, 1,710 strategic warheads are deployed: about 870 on land-based ballistic missiles, about 640 on submarine-launched ballistic missiles, and possibly 200 at heavy bomber bases.
The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, meanwhile, estimates that Russia has a stockpile of approximately 4,380 nuclear warheads assigned for use by long-range strategic launchers and shorter-range tactical nuclear forces.
The only other country to have more nuclear warheads than Russia is the United States. Washington has a total of 5,748 warheads of which 1,419 are active.
Other countries such as China have 500 warheads, while France has 290 and the UK has 225 warheads. India has 172 nuclear warheads, whereas Pakistan has 170. Many reports also state that North Korea possesses 50 warheads, but is focused on developing more.
How dangerous are Russia’s nuclear weapons?
The use of nuclear weapons can be catastrophic. Picture this: today’s nuclear warheads can be more than 1,000 kilotonnes — that’s more than six times more powerful than the Hiroshima bomb that was dropped during World War II, killing 146,000 people, maiming hundreds of thousands of people, and their effects are still being felt today.
Moreover, Russia has developed the technology for its intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) to carry nuclear warheads. If deployed, these can reach major global cities as far as London or Washington. A Sky News report stated that ICBMs can reach a top speed around 10 minutes after launch which could see one fired from Russia reach the UK in just 20 minutes.
Russia also has the Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile , which has been dubbed by Western analysts as ‘Satan 2’.
Who controls Russia’s nuclear weapons?
Owning these nuclear weapons is a huge responsibility and the decision of their use lies in the hands of its president — Vladimir Putin. The nuclear codes of the country are held in the nuclear briefcase called the Cheget and is in the president’s possession at all times. News agency Reuters reports that Russia’s Defence Minister Andrey Belousov and the chief of the general staff, Valery Gerasimov, are also thought to have such briefcases.
The briefcase is a communication tool that links the president to his military top brass and hence, to rocket forces. Footage shown by Russia’s Zvezda television channel in 2019 showed what it said was one of the briefcases with an array of buttons. If Russia thought it faced a strategic nuclear attack, the president, via the briefcase, would send a direct launch order to general staff command and reserve command units that hold nuclear codes. Such orders cascade swiftly down different communications systems to strategic rocket force units which then fire at the desired target.
Will Russia get more nuclear weapons now?
Since the war began, Russia has reportedly been expanding and modernising its nuclear forces.
According to FAS, while Russia has increased its nuclear rhetoric, its nuclear arsenal has seen little change. However, it warned that this situation change soon. “In the future, however, the number of warheads assigned to Russian strategic forces may increase as single-warhead missiles are replaced with missiles equipped with multiple warheads,” said FAS.
Will Putin use nuclear weapons in the war?
The short answer to this question is we don’t know. However, Putin has threatened and mentioned the use of nuclear weapons several times since he launched the invasion against Ukraine.
At the start of the war in 2022, Putin threatened any nation that interfered in the conflict with “consequences that you have never experienced in your history.” Many viewed this as a threat of a nuclear strike.
Then in June 2023, Putin announced that Russia had deployed some of its tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus, an ally that’s been a staging ground for Russian attacks on Ukraine.
Earlier in February, he once again raised the spectre of using nuclear weapons French President Emmanuel Macron refused to rule out sending troops to Ukraine. Putin then said that US and Europe “must understand that we also have weapons that can hit targets on their territory and that all this really threatens a conflict with the use of nuclear weapons, and therefore the destruction of civilisation.”
A month later, it seemed he had softened his stance when he told an interviewer that he hadn’t thought of using nuclear weapons in the war.
What happens next is uncertain and all we can do is wait and watch.
With inputs from agencies
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