Explained: Why Vladimir Putin is visiting Belarus and his ties to strongman Alexander Lukashenko

Russia’s Vladimir Putin on Monday made a rare visit to Belarus. Putin’s trip to meet ally and strongman Alexander Lukashenko, coming just hours after Russia’s latest attack on Ukraine and in the backdrop of Moscow’s invasion of Kyiv stalling, has set tongues wagging. Let’s take a closer look at the relationship between the two leaders, why Putin is visiting is visiting Minsk and how Belarus has aided Russia in the past: Putin and Lukashenko Perhaps the best way to describe the relationship between Putin and Lukashenko is the Facebook status “it’s complicated.”

Lukashenko, who has been in power in Belarus for nearly three decades, kept Putin at a remove for years.

A piece in Rusi.org noted that the two leaders have a ‘poor personal relationship’ which was made worse by Minsk’s initial disapproval of Moscow’s 2014 annexation and Crimea and the hosting of the Minsk agreements since 2015. The piece counted differences over oil taxes, Lukashenko not attending economic summits and an overreaching Russian ambassador as adding to the tensions. “For years, Lukashenko had vocally resisted Russia’s attempts to bring Belarus closer into its orbit, carefully holding Moscow at arm’s length while receiving significant subsidies to prop up Belarus’s ailing economy. He was also able to deftly balance this with a burgeoning relationship with the EU, which oscillated between criticism of Belarus’s human rights violations and proposals for greater European investment there,” the piece noted. Around 2018, Lukashenko expressed concern that the Kremlin’s promotion of the Union State would threaten Minsk’s sovereignty. As per The New York Times, Lukashenko drew closer to Putin in August 2020 after thousands took to the streets following the strongman’s victory in a heavily disputed presidential election. A little over a year later, the relationship completely changed after Putin and Lukashenko held a series of tête-à-têtes including an awkward, high-profile meet on a Russian yacht on the Black Sea. As a piece in Foreign Policy noted, “The comradely fraternisation seemed to have been woodenly feigned on both sides, but the spectacle made the mutual understanding they will sink or swim together obvious.” In November 2021, Lukashenko suddenly declared that he recognised Russia’s annexation of Crimea. [caption id=“attachment_11843071” align=“alignnone” width=“640”] A pro-Russian demonstrator waves Russian and Crimea flags from an old Soviet Army tank during a protest in front of a local government building in Simferopol in 2014.[/caption] He also signed a new security doctrine with Putin altering Belarus’s national security status from a ‘neutral’ country with nuclear-free status, according to Rusi.org. By February 2022, Lukashenko was visiting Moscow like ‘an obedient pupil seeking instruction and help from his master’ as The New York Times put it. Lukashenko, backing Putin blaming the West for the burgeoning Ukraine crisis, was quoted as saying, “I absolutely agree with him.” The newspaper also noted how Lukashenko seemed to refer to the two countries as a single state – with the goal of keeping ex-Soviet nations from out of the arms of the West. “The balancing act has clearly ended,” Ales Michalovich, 2010 Opposition candidate, told the newspaper at the time. “We can no longer make a distinction between the Russian and Belarusian forces,” Lt. Gen. Valdemaras Rupsys, Lithuania’s defence chief told the newspaper. “Previously, only air defences and air surveillance systems were integrated, and now we observe a systemic integration and subordination of Belarusian forces to Russia.” How Belarus has helped Russia Remember that security doctrine the countries signed in November 2021? Well, in February 2022, Belarus officially changed its constitution to allow Russian troops and nuclear weapons to be stationed permanently in the country.

Minsk further renounced its nuclear status.

“If you [the West] transfer nuclear weapons to Poland or Lithuania, to our borders, then I will turn to Putin to return the nuclear weapons that I gave away without any conditions,” Lukashenko said. Belarus then provided Russia with a launching pad for the invasion of Ukraine in February. Lukashenko in October announced that he and Putin had agreed to create a joint “regional grouping of troops” and that several thousand Russian soldiers will be stationed in Belarus. [caption id=“attachment_11834821” align=“alignnone” width=“640”]
Russian troops to conduct military exercises in Ukraine’s neighbour Belarus. AP[/caption] Lukashenko offered no details about where the troops will be deployed, and Russia’s motives weren’t immediately clear, though the remarks came in the backdrop of Moscow is struggling to replenish troops lost on the battlefield. Why is Putin visiting Minsk now? That’s the million dollar question. Some believe Russia is poised to open up a new front in the Ukraine war given the recent major battlefield setbacks for Moscow. Ukrainian joint forces commander Serhiy Nayev had said he believed the Minsk talks would address “further aggression against Ukraine and the broader involvement of the Belarusian armed forces in the operation against Ukraine, in particular, in our opinion, also on the ground”. Ukraine’s top general, Valery Zaluzhniy, told the Economist last week that Russia was preparing 200,000 fresh troops for a major offensive that could come from the east, south or even from Belarus as early as January, but more likely in spring. But others doubt it. A piece in the BBC speculated that the visit may be just a feint from Moscow – making Ukraine wary of an offensive from Belarus. “Until now Alexander Lukashenko has been reluctant to commit his own troops to fighting in Ukraine. All eyes are on Minsk to see if that remains the case,” the piece noted. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry was quoted as called such reports of Moscow pressuring Minsk to join the war “groundless” and “stupid”. Analysts say the Kremlin might be seeking some kind of Belarusian military support for its Ukraine operations. But the winter weather and Russia’s depleted resources mean any big Russian attack probably won’t come soon, according to the Institute for the Study of War, a think tank in Washington. “The capacity of the Russian military, even reinforced by elements of the Belarusian armed forces, to prepare and conduct effective large-scale mechanised offensive operations in the next few months remains questionable,” it said in an assessment published Sunday. It concluded that “it is unlikely that Lukashenko will commit the Belarusian military (which would also have to be re-equipped) to the invasion of Ukraine.”

Analysts also doubt if Belarus’ tiny, inexperienced military can be of much assistance.

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Lukashenko’s army is relatively small — just 45,000 troops, including conscripts — and largely inexperienced. The Belarusian military holds regular drills, but hasn’t taken part in combat since World War II. At best, Minsk will be able to deploy 20,000 troops — professional contract soldiers, experts say. Valery Karbalevich, an independent Belarusian analyst, told the outlet Lukashenko is trying to bargain, offering to keep Russian nuclear weapons on its soil and create the joint force, while also hinting at the weakness of his own army. “The Belarusian army is weak and demotivated, and it is not willing to fight with Ukraine, which means that Lukashenko will try to give Putin anything but Belarusian soldiers,” Ukrainian military analyst Oleh Zhdanov told The Associated Press in October. “Lukashenko is letting Putin know: ‘I will help, but I won’t fight.’” Putin said he and Lukashenko discussed forming “a single defence space” in the region and rejected claims that Moscow was poised to swallow its neighbour. “Russia isn’t interested in any kind of merger, it’s not feasible,” Putin said. Putin said that he supported Lukashenko’s proposal to train the crews of Belarusian warplanes that already have been modified for using special warheads — a reference to nuclear weapons. Bloomberg quoted Putin a saying at a press conference that Moscow will “continue the practice of regular joint exercises” and that the countries will ensure deliveries of weapons and the joint production of military hardwire. With inputs from agencies Read all the  Latest News ,  Trending News ,  Cricket News ,  Bollywood News , India News  and  Entertainment News  here. Follow us on  Facebook,  Twitter and  Instagram.