Is Ukraine 'months away' from building a nuclear bomb?

Reports recently surfaced, alleging that Ukraine could develop a basic nuclear device within months if it lost support from the West.

German publication BILD reported a claim from an unnamed senior Ukrainian official specialising in weapons procurement, who reportedly stated, “We have the material, we have the knowledge. If the order is given, we will only need a few weeks to have the first bomb.”

This assertion, allegedly shared in a closed meeting showed the official further cautioning that Western nations should focus more on Ukraine’s “red lines” instead of solely fixating on Russia’s, which some interpreted as a signal of Ukraine’s potential pivot to nuclear options if it faces potential abandonment by its allies .

In response, Ukraine’s Presidential Communications Advisor Dmytro Lytvyn dismissed the claims, saying BILD’s coverage “plays into the hands of Russian propaganda,” echoing previous instances where BILD purportedly misrepresented information about Ukraine. He reiterated that this narrative bore no basis in reality.

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Is Ukraine nuclear capable?

The Center for Army, Conversion, and Disarmament Studies, a Ukrainian military think tank, suggested that Ukraine could potentially use spent nuclear fuel from its nine operational power plants to create a basic atomic device, estimated to have a yield about one-tenth of “Fat Man,” the bomb dropped on Nagasaki in 1945.

The think tank’s report mentioned that “the weight of reactor plutonium available to Ukraine can be estimated at seven tons,” which would be sufficient to create a limited arsenal of tactical nuclear warheads. According to Oleksii Yizhak, the report’s author, “That would be enough to destroy an entire Russian airbase or concentrated military, industrial, or logistics installations.”

Despite this analysis, many officials have downplayed the likelihood of Ukraine advancing a nuclear program. Ukraine’s foreign ministry spokesperson Heorhii Tykhyi firmly asserted, “We do not possess, develop, or intend to acquire nuclear weapons.”

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He also said that Ukraine remains committed to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) and continues to maintain transparency with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), whose oversight rules out any military applications of nuclear materials.

What does Ukraine’s history tell us?

Ukraine was once a formidable nuclear power, inheriting approximately 1,700 nuclear warheads after the USSR’s collapse in 1991, making it the third-largest nuclear power in the world at that time.

This arsenal included 130 UR-100N intercontinental ballistic missiles, each with six warheads, 46 RT-23 Molodets ICBMs with ten warheads each, and 33 heavy bombers. However, these weapons were under Russian operational control, as Moscow maintained the launch sequences.

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In 1994, Ukraine agreed to relinquish its nuclear arsenal to Russia under the Budapest Memorandum, a security arrangement in which the United States, the United Kingdom, and Russia promised to uphold Ukraine’s sovereignty and borders in return for its commitment to non-proliferation.

This agreement has since become a contentious issue, especially since Moscow violated its terms by invading Ukraine in 2014 and 2022, reigniting debates on whether Kyiv should consider restoring its nuclear capabilities.

How is Ukraine adapting to shifting powers amongst allies?

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy also touched on the nuclear issue in a recent speech at the European Council in Brussels, suggesting that Ukraine’s security could hinge on either NATO membership or a return to nuclear capability.

He recounted telling former US President Donald Trump that Ukraine’s response to Russian aggression would be either restoring its nuclear deterrent or joining NATO.

Although Zelenskyy has stated that NATO membership remains Ukraine’s preferred route, his remarks echo sentiments made by former Ukrainian ambassador to Germany Andriy Melnyk in 2021, prior to Russia’s latest invasion, who argued that Ukraine’s defence could only be guaranteed by joining NATO or regaining nuclear capacity.

The context surrounding Zelenskyy’s comments reflects broader concerns in Ukraine about the erosion of the Budapest Memorandum’s guarantees. With the US potentially reassessing its military support under a new administration led by Trump , Zelenskyy’s statement points to Ukraine’s fears of isolation in the face of Russian aggression.

How practical is it for Ukraine to become nuclear capable?

Experts debate the plausibility of Ukraine acquiring nuclear weapons, with many citing significant challenges. Ukraine lacks uranium enrichment plants and fuel production facilities, having relied on Russia for enrichment and fuel fabrication until the 2022 invasion.

While it may retain some foundational knowledge from its Soviet-era nuclear programs, constructing a functional nuclear arsenal would require substantial infrastructure, financial resources, and time — factors that, according to analysts, make a quick pivot to nuclear weapons highly unlikely.

Valentyn Badrak, director of the Center for Army, Conversion, and Disarmament Studies, expressed the existential pressures facing Ukraine, stating, “If the Russians take Ukraine, millions of Ukrainians will be killed under occupation. There are millions of us who would rather face death than go to the gulags.”

In the meantime, the war continues into its third year, with Russian forces reportedly preparing a “massive” missile offensive against Ukrainian infrastructure ahead of winter. In parallel, leaked footage has emerged showing North Korean troops training in Russia.

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With inputs from agencies