 "Maharashtra election results: What happens if the state sees a hung Assembly")
It’s a big day for the state of Maharashtra. Results will soon be in for the 288-member Assembly. Earlier, several exit polls gave an edge to the Mahayuti alliance, comprising the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Shiv Sena led by Eknath Shinde and Ajit Pawar’s Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), against its rival the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA).
While most of these exit polls showed the Mahayuti bloc crossing the 145-seat majority mark, three exit polls predicted a hung Assembly in Maharashtra.
What will happen if no party or alliance wins a majority? Let’s take a look.
Maharashtra Assembly exit polls
At least five exit polls say the Mahayuti alliance could win Maharashtra, trumping the MVA coalition of the Congress, Shiv Sena (Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray) or Shiv Sena (UBT) and NCP (Sharadchandra Pawar).
The Matrize exit poll predicted 150-170 seats for BJP-Shiv Sena-NCP alliance. The MVA could pick up 110-130 seats, while eight to 10 seats are likely to go to others.
According to Peoples Pulse, the Mahayuti could return to power with 175-195 seats, while the MVA might have to be content with 85-112 seats.
Times Now-JVC projected a thumping victory for the Mahayuti alliance with 150-167 seats, giving 107-125 seats to the MVA.
Poll Diary said the Mahayuti could win 122-186 seats, the MVA 69-121, and 10-27 seats are likely to go to others.
Chanakya Strategies gave the Mahayuti 152-160 seats and 130-138 seats to the MVA.
Two exit polls favoured the MVA over the Mahayuti.
The exit poll by Lokpoll gave 151-162 seats to the MVA and 115-128 seats to the Mahayuti.
The Electoral Edge forecasted a clear victory for the MVA with 150 seats, while giving 118 seats to the Mahayuti and 20 to others.
3 exit polls say hung Assembly likely
Three exit polls claim Maharashtra is headed towards a hung Assembly.
As per P-Marq, the Mahayuti could win 137 to 157 seats, while the MVA is likely to grab between 126 and 146 seats.
Another pollster, Lokshahi-Marathi Rudra, predicted a close fight between the two alliances, giving 125-140 seats to the MVA and 128-142 seats to the Mahayuti. Others could pick up 18-23 seats.
The Dainik Bhaskar exit poll projected 135-150 seats for the Congress and its allies and 125-140 seats for the Mahayuti. Others could bag 20-25 seats.
What comes next if there’s a hung Assembly
If the exit polls that have predicted a tight race between the MVA and Mahayuti are to go by, Maharashtra could see a hung Assembly.
In such a scenario, smaller parties and independent candidates are likely to play a major role in the formation of the next government in the western state.
These ‘others’ have been given an average of 12 seats by pollsters.
A hung Assembly is when no political party or alliance is able to secure an absolute majority in the state elections. When this happens, the governor invites the leader of the single largest party to form the government, usually giving the party 10 days to prove an absolute majority.
During this time, the party or alliance asked to form a government has to gain a majority, which can be done through external support from other parties or independents. The one who offers external support usually sits out and its legislators do not hold ministerial berths in the government.
But if the single largest party or alliance fails to show a majority after the deadline ends, the governor dissolves the Assembly and calls for re-election.
A hung Assembly could also result in a minority government. A minority government does not have an absolute majority in the House to pass laws and depends on the support of other non-aligned parties or independents to pass laws. Such minority governments are fragile.
It should be noted though that exit polls are not always right as was seen recently. Exit polls had predicted a hung Assembly in Jammu and Kashmir, while the Congress was forecasted to sweep Haryana.
However, the surveys proved to be incorrect as the National Conference-led alliance won in J&K and the BJP stormed to power in Haryana.
We will have to wait until Saturday (November 23) to find out how apt were exit polls this time.
With inputs from agencies
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