 "What do Maharashtra and Jharkhand exit polls say? What are the big takeaways?")
Voting for the Maharashtra and Jharkhand assembly polls concluded at 6 pm today (November 20).
In Maharashtra, voting for the 288-seat Assembly occurred in a single phase, while voting for the 81-seat Jharkhand Assembly took place in two phases (with the first held on November 13).
The results of the polls will be declared on Saturday (23 November).
But what do the exit polls say?
Who is ahead in Maharashtra and Jharkhand?
And what are the takeways?
Let’s take a closer look:
Exit polls in Maharashtra
In Maharashtra, the ruling Mahayuti alliance of the BJP, Shiv Sena and the NCP (Ajit Pawar ) is taking on the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) of the Congress, Shiv Sena (UBT) and the NCP (Sharad Pawar).
Most pollsters have given the edge to the ruling Mahayuti in Maharashtra where the magic mark is 145 seats.
However, a couple predict a close battle for supremacy, while two more say that the opposition MVA will prevail.
The People’s Pulse predicts a massive win for the Mahayuti alliance, giving the ruling coalition between 175 and 195 seats.
On the other hand, it predicts between 85 and 112 seats for the MVA.
Chanakya Strategies also predicts a relatively strong performance for the ruling coalition.
It says the Mahayuti will get between 152 and 160 seats.
It also predicts between 130 and 138 seats for the Indi bloc.
The pollster Matrize has also predicted a comfortable victory for the BJP-led Mahayuti alliance.
It gave the ruling coalition between 150 and 170 seats for the ruling coalition, while predicted between 110 and 130 seats for the opposition MVA.
Poll Diary too favours the ruling Mahayuti alliance.
It gives the coalition between 122-186 seats, while it says the opposition MVA will get between 69 and 121 seats.
The Times Now-JVC pollster also gives the ruling Mahayuti alliance the nod.
It predicts between 150 and 167 seats for the ruling coalition and gives the opposition MVA between 107 and 125 seats.
The Lokshahi-Marathi Rudra on the other hand, has it closer.
The pollster gives the BJP-led Mahayuti a close win with between 128 and 142 seats. Meanwhile, it projects between 125 and 140 seats for the MVA.
P Marq also has it close.
The pollster has given the ruling Mahayuti 137 to 157 seats in Maharashtra.
It also predicted between 126 and 146 assembly seats for the MVA alliance.
Dainik Bhaskar, on the other hand, has gone against the grain entirely by predicting that the opposition MVA will prevail.
It gives the MVA between 135 and 150 seats, while it predicts between 125 and 140 seats for the ruling Mahayuti alliance is likely to get 125-140 seats.
The Electoral Edge pollster too has taken a similar position.
The pollster has predicted that the MVA will get around 150 seats, while it gives the ruling Mahayuti just 118 seats.
Exit polls in Jharkhand
In Jharkhand, the ruling Indi Alliance bloc led by the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha of Chief Minister Hemant Soren is taking on the BJP’s National Democratic Alliance (NDA).
In Jharkhand, too a majority of pollster – five out of eight – have given the opposition NDA the edge over the Indi alliance.
However, three pollsters have predicted that the ruling India Alliance will return to power.
In all, a close tussle looks to be on the cards in Jharkhand.
Chanakya Strategies has given the NDA between 45 and 50 seats in Jharkhand.
The pollster also predicted 35 to 38 seats for the JMM-led bloc.
Matrize too has said the odds are in favour of the NDA in Jharkhand.
The pollster has given the NDA between 42 and 47 seats, while the Congress-RJD-JMM alliance has been predicted to net between 25 and 30 seats.
Peoples Pulse too has predicted an NDA victory in Jharkhand, while it gave the Indi Alliance 25 to 37 seats in Jharkhand.
Dainik Bhaskar has also predicted a tight contest.
The pollster gave the NDA 37 to 40 seats, while it predicted 36 to 39 seats for the Indi bloc.
The Times Now-JVC pollster predicted a close contest but given the NDA the edge.
The pollster has predicted 40 to 44 seats for the opposition NDA and between 30 and 40 seats for the JMM-led alliance.
Axis My India given the ruling alliance in Jharkhand the nod.
The pollster has predicted between 49 and 59 seats for the JMM-led alliance, while it has given the NDA an anaemic 17 to 27 seats.
Electoral Edge too predicted a win for the JMM-led alliance.
The pollster gave the ruling bloc 42 seats, while it said the NDA would get 32 seats.
PMarq too favours the Indi Alliance in Jharkhand.
The pollster gives the JMM-led bloc between 37 and 47 seats. On the other hand, it predicts the NDA will net between 31 and 40 seats.
Key takeaways of exit polls in both states
It seems like the Modi magic is back.
According to India Today, if these exit polls hold, that would be a sign of the enduring faith in Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s policies.
It also indicates that the BJP is bouncing back after its subpar performance in the recent Lok Sabha polls.
Remember, the BJP ultimately won 240 seats in the polls – falling short of the 272 mark needed in Parliament and far short of its stated aim, prior to the polls, of winning 400 seats.
If the Mahayuti indeed prevails in Maharashtra, the Chief Minister Eknath Shinde and Ajit Pawar factions of the Shiv Sena and NCP will have bragging rights over their MVA counterparts of the UBT led by Uddhav Thackeray and the NCP faction led by Sharad Pawar.
On the other hand, if the MVA fails to come to power in Maharashtra and the Indi bloc is swept aside in Jharkhand, questions will continue to be raised about the Congress and its role in the the opposition.
But a slew of leaders have dismissed exit polls.
JMM leader Manoj Pandey was quoted as saying, “Exit polls are just exit polls…but the actual results that are going to come will be shocking. We will have 55+ seats…look at the excitement of people, look at the increase in voting percentage. BJP did not have a topic but we were moving forward with the issues of people…”
Congress in-charge for Maharashtra, Ramesh Chennithala, added. “Exit polls are not reflecting the reality…People’s sentiments are with us…We are touching on the real issues. BJP was always resorting to the people on communal lines. I feel people in Maharashtra will vote for Maha Vikas Aghadi and we will form govt. Exit polls are not telling the reality.”
Meanwhile, Congress’s chief spokesperson in the state, Atul Londhe, said, “Exit polls have lost their credibility.”
“We are not taking part in the exit polls. We trust only exact polls. Maha Vikas Aghadi will get comfortable to form a government,” he said.
Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi (VBA) President Prakash Ambedkar on Wednesday said that national parties would have a minimal impact on the Maharashtra polls.
“We had earlier predicted that the National political parties will not have much influence in the Maharashtra elections. I see the prediction is correct. Regional parties will be strengthened,” Ambedkar told ANI.
With inputs from agencies
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