Is the Trudeau government set to fall? What’s going on in Canadian politics?

Trouble seems to be brewing for Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. In what was a surprise blow, the Jagmeet Singh-led New Democratic Party (NDP), which has been supporting Trudeau’s minority Liberal government, has decided to withdraw its backing .

The NDP leader said in a video message that he was “ripping up” the 2022 agreement between the two parties and slammed the PM for failing to effectively challenge the opposition Conservatives.

But what went wrong between the two partners? And does this threaten Trudeau’s position? We explain.

Why did the NDP pull support for Liberals?

In 2021, the Trudeau-led party won minority seats in parliament. In March 2022, Trudeau and Jagmeet Singh reached a deal called a “supply and confidence” agreement to protect it from confidence votes which would bring down the government.

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In exchange, the Liberals would back the Left-wing NDP in several of its main priorities in Parliament like benefits for lower-income families, a national pharmacare programme, and legislation to ban the use of replacement workers during a lockout or strike.

The deal was until recently June 2025. However, the New Democrats started to reconsider their commitment last month after Trudeau’s Cabinet directed its industrial relations board to impose binding arbitration after two of the country’s largest railways started a work stoppage, reports the BBC.

Supporting workers and the labour movement has been a key principle of the NDP. Amid the strike, the Left party could not possibly back the government.

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Announcing the NDP’s decision to break the deal, Singh said that the Liberals “had let people down” and did not “deserve another chance with the Canadians”.

“The fact is, the Liberals are too weak, too selfish and too beholden to corporate interests to fight for people. They cannot be change, they cannot restore the hope, they cannot stop the Conservatives. But we can,” he added.

An NDP spokesperson told CBC News that the plan to end the agreement was in the works for the past two weeks. The party informed the Liberal government of its decision an hour before Singh’s video went online.

The deal is done.

The Liberals are too weak, too selfish and too beholden to corporate interests to stop the Conservatives and their plans to cut. But the NDP can.

Big corporations and CEOs have had their governments. It's the people's time. pic.twitter.com/BsE9zT0CwF

— Jagmeet Singh (@theJagmeetSingh) September 4, 2024

So what are the NDP’s plans next?

Singh defended his party’s decision to withdraw support from the government to the “even bigger battle ahead” against potential “Conservative cuts” to government programmes. “From workers, from retirees, from young people, from patients, from families – [Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre] will cut in order to give more to big corporations and wealthy CEOs,” he said.

He said that the Liberals will not stand up to corporate interests and he will be running in the next election to “stop Conservative cuts”.

The deal between the Liberals and NDP ensured the survival of the minority Liberal government. It was the first such formal agreement between two parties at the federal level.

Will the Canadian government fall?

With the end of the deal, Canada returns to traditional minority Parliament politics. However, it does not mean the Liberal government will fall. There might be no immediate danger for Trudeau but there is the risk of a collapse.

For now, the Canadian PM will have to court one of the three main opposition parties in Parliament on a case-by-case basis to avoid an election over a confidence vote, reports Bloomberg.

Liberals and NDP still share common priorities like in social policy. The two sides might continue to cooperate and vote together on these issues in the coming months to pass bills in parliament. The Liberals can also pass legislation with the backing of Bloc Québécois, a regional party, to matters where they might not see eye to eye with New Democrats.

The Liberals then need the support of the NDP or the Bloc to win confidence votes and avoid an early election.

What is the possibility of an early election?

NDP’s decision puts the Trudeau government in a precarious position. While Canada is not headed for an immediate poll, it could be held sooner than expected.

The Liberal government can be brought down with a no-confidence vote when the Canadian parliament returns later in the month, reports CBC News.

According to Canada’s fixed election date law, the polls are not expected until October 2025. However, it all changes if MPs turn on the Liberals or if Trudeau himself goes to the governor general requesting an early election.

Lori Turnbull, a professor of political science at Dalhousie University, told CBC News that the Liberal government could stay in power until it tables its next budget. “If I’m a betting person — and I may regret ever saying this — I suspect we’ll see a budget election," Turnbull said, suggesting Canadians could head to the polls sometime after that document is tabled in March or April.

What does this mean for Trudeau and his party?

The Liberals would want to avoid an early election. Canadians have been increasingly frustrated over rising inflation and the housing affordability crisis, losing faith in the government. This is reflected in opinion surveys.

The Liberals lag in polls behind Pierre Poilievre’s Conservative Party. “Over the past year the Liberals have trailed by 15 to 20 percentage points — a gap that, if it held through election day, would give Poilievre a majority government,” reports Bloomberg.

What happens next? Are the NDP now at an advantage?

The popularity of Trudeau and the Liberals has been plummeting. The NDP faced the risk of losing its support along with them.

Now by distancing itself from the Liberals, it is preparing itself for the next election. Hence Singh attacked both Trudeau and Poilievre in his speech.

Withdrawing from the deal is not the equivalent of a vote of no-confidence in the government, and it doesn’t mean the NDP wants to immediately pull the plug on the Liberal government. Instead, the NDP wants full freedom to forge and promote its own policy agenda and its message to Canadians while distancing itself from an unpopular government and prime minister, according to a report in The Conversation.

But now it remains to be seen if the voters are convinced.

Will this benefit the Conservative Party?

It could. The NDP has now opened itself to criticism by withdrawing from the deal as demanded by Poilievere. He has long been saying that the country needs a change in government and now the NDP’s decision only adds more credence to his claim.

In a nutshell, it is bad news for Trudeau. The Liberals appear weak, they are losing the faith of the public and it seems like after close to nine years in power, change might be on the cards for Canada.

With inputs from agencies