Why Montreal by-election could be a ‘turning point’ for Justin Trudeau’s Liberals

A special election in Canada is being widely seen as a crucial test for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. The vote on Monday (September 16) – a by-election – to fill a parliamentary seat in Montreal comes amid the plunging popularity of the Canadian PM.

Trudeau’s sinking popularity has been having consequences for his Liberal Party. It is to be seen whether the party would be able to retain an electoral district in southwestern Montreal that has been its stronghold for years.

Let’s take a closer look.

Montreal by-election

It is a high-stakes election in Montreal, Quebec, for the Liberals. In June, the Liberal Party lost its safe seat in Toronto in a special election to the opposition Conservative Party.

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Now, bets are higher. Recent surveys show a tight race between the Liberals, the Quebec nationalist Bloc Quebecois and the left-leaning New Democratic Party (NDP) in the Montreal by-election, as per Al Jazeera.

Experts say the special election will be a “litmus test” for Trudeau’s party ahead of the general elections next year. The Toronto loss has further increased the stakes for the Liberals in the Montreal by-election.

The election in the electoral district of LaSalle—Emard—Verdun was necessitated to replace a Liberal legislator who quit, reported Reuters. In the 2021 Canadian general election, the Liberals had won the constituency with 43 per cent of the vote, defeating the separatist Bloc Quebecois which got 22 per cent of the vote and the NDP which secured 19 per cent.

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A recent poll showed Bloc Quebecois candidate has an edge over the Liberal and NDP candidates.

Big test for Trudeau

Trudeau , who has been in power in Canada for nine years, is facing a big test. He has become increasingly unpopular amid soaring costs of living and a housing crisis in the country.

The disillusionment of Canadians from Trudeau is visible in his near-absence from the local campaign. His face does not appear on the Liberal Party’s campaign posters. He has also mostly stayed away from campaigning.

“Right now, there’s a lot of dissatisfaction with Mr Trudeau’s government, and that’s probably going to be felt,” Benoit Frenette, a Verdun, Quebec, resident told Al Jazeera.

Speaking to New York Times, Michael Altimas, 79, a retired city bus driver in Montreal, said, “I am a Liberal supporter, but it’s almost like enough is enough. For the most part, he’s been a good prime minister.

“But he’s had nine years and people are hearing often enough that he messed up, and they don’t want to support him anymore," he added.

Trudeau’s approval rate has dipped from 63 per cent when he was first elected in 2015 to 28 per cent in June of this year, as per BBC.

Voices from within the Liberal Party have started emerging demanding Trudeau step aside as the party leader.

Last November, Canadian Senator Percy Downe called for the PM to make way for a new party leader before the next election.

Alexandra Mendes, a Liberal lawmaker who represents a Quebec constituency, said many of her constituents did not want Trudeau.

“I didn’t hear it from two, three people - I heard it from dozens and dozens of people,” she told public broadcaster Radio-Canada last week. “He’s no longer the right leader.”

If the Liberals lose, Trudeau could come under fire. The calls from the Liberal Party for him to step down as the leader could grow.

His government is also under trouble.

The Canadian Parliament will resume on Monday. Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre has vowed to bring a motion of no-confidence in the House of Commons as soon as possible. If the attempt is successful, Canada could head to early elections.

Last week, the left-wing NDP withdrew from a supply-and-confidence agreement that kept Trudeau’s minority government in power in exchange for advancing key progressive policies.

Announcing the decision, NDP leader Jagmeet Singh said “the Liberals are too weak, too selfish and too beholden to corporate interests to fight for people”.

With the NDP’s support gone, “every day in Parliament is going to be consequential”, Darrell Bricker, a political scientist and pollster with Ipsos, told BBC.

“It’s going to be a very difficult autumn for the Liberals,” he added.

Will Trudeau step aside?

Even if the Liberals lose the Montreal by-election, Trudeau is unlikely to step down and let a fresh face lead the party to the next general election.

Rick Bisaillon, a political science professor at Concordia University in Montreal, told Al Jazeera that Trudeau is likely to stay. “He seems almost convinced that he’s got a mission from God,” he said.

Stewart Prest, a political science lecturer at the University of British Columbia, said a Liberal loss on Monday could be a  “turning point” for the party.

“Are they willing to continue to fight under this leader, or would you start to see stronger calls from within the party for a change in leadership?” he was quoted as saying by A_l Jazeera._

“It will be fascinating to watch — if the Liberals fail to keep the seat — if indeed the MPs are essentially jolted into action or if they continue to turn their attention elsewhere and the Liberals continue to seemingly coast towards the inevitable defeat” in the next election.

Polls predict Liberals could lose power to the Conservatives in the general elections that are to be held before the end of October 2025. According to a recent Leger poll, the Conservative Party is favoured by 45 per cent public, with the Liberals preferred by 25 per cent.

With inputs from agencies