Jaishankar-Rubio talks, Pax Silica invitation… Is the India-US impasse ending?

Before Donald Trump took the White House for a second time last January, many in India were optimistic that the US president would build on his previous friendship with Prime Minister Narendra Modi. However, since he’s taken office, the American leader has dealt many blows to the India-US ties — either by the way of imposing punishing tariffs, or the constant jabs by him and his aides aimed at New Delhi.

However, it seems all is not lost between India and the United States. There are signs and indications that the two nations are pushing forward with trade negotiations that have been stalled over Trump’s rhetoric.

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So, what’s brewing between India and the US?

Jaishankar-Rubio phone call

On Tuesday (January 13), External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar held a telephonic conversation with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio during which the two discussed cooperation across trade, critical minerals, nuclear energy, defence and energy.

Following the call, Jaishankar said on X, “Just concluded a good conversation with @SecRubio. Discussed trade, critical minerals, nuclear cooperation, defence and energy.”

A possible meeting between the two was also discussed. However, it is not clear whether Jaishankar and Rubio will meet during a bilateral visit, or on the sidelines of a multilateral event, including the AI Impact summit in Delhi next month.

Both — Jaishankar and Rubio — have held multiple conversations all through 2025. In September 2025, in their first meeting after the Trump administration levied 50 per cent tariffs on India and decided to impose a $100,000 fee for H-1B visa applicants, their conversation covered a range of bilateral and international issues of “current concern” – indicating that hot-button issues were part of conversation. They also agreed to continue to engage so that they can make progress on “priority areas”.

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This was followed up by a meeting on the sidelines of the meeting of G7 foreign ministers in November during which they focused on trade and supply chains. They also exchanged views on the Ukraine conflict, the West Asia situation and Indo-Pacific.

Trump’s envoy Sergio Gor outreach to India

Notably, the Jaishankar-Rubio phone call came a day after Donald Trump’s close ally, Sergio Gor, began his role as United States ambassador to India. On day one of taking up the post, Gor promised to help resolve differences that have badly strained ties between the two nations, namely over the trade deal. He acknowledged that it has not been an easy task, but both countries are “determined to get it across the finish line”.

“Real friends can disagree, but always resolve their differences in the end,” said Gor said in a speech to hundreds of embassy staff members, emphasising Trump’s “great friendship” with Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

He added that trade negotiations would continue, and that India would be invited to join Pax Silica, a US initiative to build supply chains for artificial intelligence and other advanced technology.

Gor noted, “No partner is more essential than India. In the months and years ahead, it is my goal as ambassador to pursue a very ambitious agenda. We will do this as true strategic partners, each bringing strength, respect, and leadership to the table.”

Ashwini Vaishnaw attends critical minerals meeting

Moreover, India’s minister Ashwini Vaishnaw participated in a critical minerals meeting hosted by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent in Washington, DC. Leaders from Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom and Australia were also present for the meet.

At the meet, Vaishnaw highlighted the importance of resilient mineral supply chains as electronics and other manufacturing sectors expand rapidly in India.

Meanwhile, US Treasury Secretary Bessent said the countries shared a desire to address vulnerabilities in the minerals supply chains.

A possible thaw in India-US ties

These recent engagements and outreach attempts suggest a possible thaw in the frosty India-US ties. It all began last April when Trump announced a 25 per cent tariff on India as part of his Liberation Day.

However, things soured between India and the US when Trump insisted that he played a central role in de-escalating the India-Pakistan conflict last May. Despite the US president’s repeated assertions on the same, New Delhi has maintained that there was no foreign intervention, with Defence Minister Rajnath Singh telling Parliament last July that it was “completely incorrect and baseless to say that India’s military action stopped because of pressure”. This was followed up by Trump pursuing a rapprochement with Indian arch-rival Pakistan.

India and the US ties deteriorated further last August when Trump singled out India for its purchases of Russian oil, slapping it with an additional 25 per cent penalty tariff, doubling the country’s overall tariff rate to 50 per cent.

Moreover, several of Trump’s aides and advisors have made jabs at India. Last September, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent claimed India was “profiteering from cheap Russian oil imports during the war in Ukraine, describing the practice as “arbitrage” and condemning it as unacceptable. Trump’s deputy chief of staff at the White House, Stephen Miller, also accused India of financing Russia’s war in Ukraine by buying oil from Moscow. “What he (Trump) said very clearly is that it is not acceptable for India to continue financing this war by purchasing the oil from Russia,” he said.

As recently as last week, Trump was also seen mocking PM Modi, claiming that the PM personally appealed to him about the steep tariffs imposed by Washington on Delhi over its purchase of Russian oil.

“Prime Minister Modi came to see me, ‘Sir, may I see you please’. Yes,” Trump said at the House GOP Member Retreat, adding that the two leaders shared a “very good relationship.”

Besides this, the Trump administration has also placed serious barriers to H-1B visas, affecting the flow of Indian labour into the United States.

It’s left to be seen if India and the US ties can be repaired. For now, it’s a wait and watch game.

With inputs from agencies